Southern California 35, Ohio State 3

[rockymtn devil]

I didn't want to hijack the gambling thread with a discussion of one particular game, so here's its own thread.

This game intrigues me for so many reasons (not the least of which is that I'm a Buckeye fan). Stewart Mandell at SI.com has a blog entry up about how weird it is to have the entire college football world hoping for the underdog to get killed. Apparently America loves an underdog, except when it's Ohio State.

As a fan, everything about this game screams that the Trojans should roll. Chris Wells will not play (maybe for the rest of the season). Ohio State was sluggish and uninspired last week and their vaunted O-line got beat time and again. Inconsistent QB and WR play and an inability to run the ball will often doom a team. USC doesn't lose at home, especially OOC and they impressed in their season debut.

But something tells me this game will be close. For starters, Ohio State has a very good defense and USC doesn't play a Florida-style spread that gives the Buckeyes trouble. USC also has a somewhat suspect offensive line and a QB that hasn't been hit like he will be on Saturday. Sanchez was great against UVA. But, let's be honest, the Cavs are terrible. In the '03 Fiesta Bowl, Ken Dorsey got hit and hit and hit hard all night long and it took its toll. Ditto for young Colt McCoy two years ago in Austin. I expect the same to happen to Sanchez.

I also think the Buckeyes have an offense up their sleeves. The play calling against Ohio was beyond vanilla. Tressell didn't go past the first column of the first page of the playbook. I expect lots of spread formations and a heavy dose of Pryor. The trio of running backs will not be asked to run between the tackles, but instead will be used as scat-backs, getting lots of touches in the short passing game. By playing this "Wells will play line" for two weeks, they've forced USC to prepare for a traditional OSU offense. They won't see it.

Finally, I think the seniors who chose to come back will make a stand.

[CameronBornAndBred]

If the Ohio State that played last week shows up, USC is going to mop the field with them.

[A-Tex Devil]

Despite the fact that I will bet on USC, I think OSU could make a game of it if one thing happens --- Terrelle Pryor (sp?) is as good as advertised.

Unless the OSU defense shuts down USC and keeps the game in the teens, Boeckman isn't going to win it for them. He's just like Krenzel from their national championship year, but with more mistakes.

I think the reason everyone is rooting against OSU is simply because many fans think the Big Ten is a second rate BCS conference not far above the ACC and Big East and want to put the final nail in that coffin.

I wouldn't go that far, but let's look at 2006. OSU and Michigan are number 1 and number 2. Everyone is high on both and think of OSU some kind of a juggernaut. Both teams get KILLED in their bowl games by UF and USC. And not fluky killed -- beat by much better teams killed. Then an OSU team that everyone knew was weaker than the year before gets to the national championship game. Some (not me) say by default. But I do think they were inferior to at least 5 other teams last year. I just don't have an argument with them playing the title game because they only had one loss, and no other BCS conference team could claim that.

But America didn't really want to watch the butt whooping they knew would occur that night against LSU.

So long story short -- SEC and Big XII fans especially (and Pac Ten fans to some extent) feel that OSU gets a break by playing the soft Big Televen schedule. I can't really disagree, but it's the system we've got, right?

Edited to say -- a lot of people think OSU's championship was a fluke due to the bogus pass interference. Again, not me, but just throwing that out there.

[rockymtn devil]

Despite the fact that I will bet on USC, I think OSU could make a game of it if one thing happens --- Terrelle Pryor (sp?) is as good as advertised.

Unless the OSU defense shuts down USC and keeps the game in the teens, Boeckman isn't going to win it for them. He's just like Krenzel from their national championship year, but with more mistakes.

I think the reason everyone is rooting against OSU is simply because many fans think the Big Ten is a second rate BCS conference not far above the ACC and Big East and want to put the final nail in that coffin.

I wouldn't go that far, but let's look at 2006. OSU and Michigan are number 1 and number 2. Everyone is high on both and think of OSU some kind of a juggernaut. Both teams get KILLED in their bowl games by UF and USC. And not fluky killed -- beat by much better teams killed. Then an OSU team that everyone knew was weaker than the year before gets to the national championship game. Some (not me) say by default. But I do think they were inferior to at least 5 other teams last year. I just don't have an argument with them playing the title game because they only had one loss, and no other BCS conference team could claim that.

But America didn't really want to watch the butt whooping they knew would occur that night against LSU.

So long story short -- SEC and Big XII fans especially (and Pac Ten fans to some extent) feel that OSU gets a break by playing the soft Big Televen schedule. I can't really disagree, but it's the system we've got, right?

Edited to say -- a lot of people think OSU's championship was a fluke due to the bogus pass interference. Again, not me, but just throwing that out there.

I sympathize with this and the perception is, to a certain extent, grounded in truth. The B10 has had several down years (although, this entire discussion emphasizes SEC victories over B10 teams and ignores the reverse; Wisconsin and PSU have done well in recent bowl games against the SEC; mediocre Michigan torched Florida's defense last year) but it's all cyclical. When SI recently did its conference ratings since the start of the BCS (1998), according to its methodology, the B10 was the best conference in America from 1998-2003. Since then its dropped.

What I don't like about this entire discussion is how people willfully choose to ignore the reality that no major team in American schedules OOC as aggressively as Ohio State. Since 1998, off the top of my head, I can think of OSU games against West Virginia, Miami, UCLA, Washington State (when they were top 10), Washington (when they were top 10), NCST (when they were supposed to be top 10), Texas, USC. In 1995 and 1996 they did a home and home with a still respectable Notre Dame. In the coming years, the Buckeyes play Miami, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Tennessee. You never hear about that.

Don't even get me started on the 2003 Fiesta Bowl

[A-Tex Devil]

I sympathize with this and the perception is, to a certain extent, grounded in truth. The B10 has had several down years (although, this entire discussion emphasizes SEC victories over B10 teams and ignores the reverse; Wisconsin and PSU have done well in recent bowl games against the SEC; mediocre Michigan torched Florida's defense last year) but it's all cyclical. When SI recently did its conference ratings since the start of the BCS (1998), according to its methodology, the B10 was the best conference in America from 1998-2003. Since then its dropped.

What I don't like about this entire discussion is how people willfully choose to ignore the reality that no major team in American schedules OOC as aggressively as Ohio State. Since 1998, off the top of my head, I can think of OSU games against West Virginia, Miami, UCLA, Washington State (when they were top 10), Washington (when they were top 10), NCST (when they were supposed to be top 10), Texas, USC. In 1995 and 1996 they did a home and home with a still respectable Notre Dame. In the coming years, the Buckeyes play Miami, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Tennessee. You never hear about that.

Don't even get me started on the 2003 Fiesta Bowl

I don't disagree. The Buckeyes have one off year last year with non-conference scheduling, and people call it a trend.

I think if it's not for the ridiculous love fest leading up to the OSU-Michigan game in 2006, followed by both teams bad bowls, this isn't as big a phenomenon. OSU was hyped in 2006 almost as much as USC in 2005 heading into that bowl game.

Also, OU is getting a similar rap in BCS games as OSU. If OU is a controversial at large invitee to the BCS this year, I guarantee you there will be a lot of hootin' and hollerin' as to why they are giving "Big Game Bob" and the land thieves another game to blow.

[wolfpackdevil]

USC will dominate the buckeyes tommorow night!
With a less than perfect Beenie Wells, and an OL that could barely beat Ohio last week, Ohio State will get there helmets shoved under the Coliseum saturday.

USC dominated there first game, and it is almost impossible to beat USC at the Coliesum.

USC wins this won with offense and defense, 42-14

[studdlee10]

USC has a ridiculous amount of talent and depth that not even OSU (which recruits incredibly well itself) can keep up with. On D, they have 4-5 guys who could be first round picks Maualuga, Cushing, Ellison, Mays, and Moala. That doesn't include guys like Galippo, Spicer, and Griffen who are finally getting a chance to play. That D will key in and stuff OSU's running game, with or without Wells. Boeckman has been miserable in big games against good D's, so going up against essentially an NFL D does not bode well for OSU.

[rockymtn devil]

USC has a ridiculous amount of talent and depth that not even OSU (which recruits incredibly well itself) can keep up with. On D, they have 4-5 guys who could be first round picks Maualuga, Cushing, Ellison, Mays, and Moala. That doesn't include guys like Galippo, Spicer, and Griffen who are finally getting a chance to play. That D will key in and stuff OSU's running game, with or without Wells. Boeckman has been miserable in big games against good D's, so going up against essentially an NFL D does not bode well for OSU.

For all I know, you're an NFL talent evaluator. I am not. This article, however, quotes SI's NFL talent evaluator. He disagrees with your assessment and even discusses OSU's NFL talent as compared to USC.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...bag/index.html

None of this means anything, of course. They still have to play the game. I stand by my earlier (albeit biased) hunch that a spread out Buckeye offense (a style which has given SC trouble--see Oregon last year) led by Pryor will surprise a lot of people.

[dukeballer2294]

It will be close. No way Benie stays outtta this 1. The reason OSU played horrible last week was becasue there best player was sitting on the bench. I say itll be 28-14 Usc with the defenses playing outstanding.


P.S. I am going who else?

[studdlee10]

For all I know, you're an NFL talent evaluator. I am not. This article, however, quotes SI's NFL talent evaluator. He disagrees with your assessment and even discusses OSU's NFL talent as compared to USC.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...bag/index.html

None of this means anything, of course. They still have to play the game. I stand by my earlier (albeit biased) hunch that a spread out Buckeye offense (a style which has given SC trouble--see Oregon last year) led by Pryor will surprise a lot of people.

Fair enough, but I never said OSU had no talent. I just think from top to bottom, USC has a ton more. OSU has a strong defense, no doubt. However, USC has the tools and weapons on O to challenge that D, while the OSU offense, outside of Wells who will be less 100%, doesn't have the same talent, especially at the QB position where Boeckman has been horrible in big games. The bowl game from last year for evidence. You're absolutely correct USC doesn't have great cornerbacks and it's something that slipped my mind a bit, but OSU's O-line struggled with Ohio last week. USC is a totally different beast. I also think that Dennis Dixon is worlds better at the QB spot than Boeckman will ever be.

USC on offense has 3 rbs that individually could start on almost any other team in the NCAAs. They have 3-4 WRs that are all legit deep threats. Sure Jenkins is good, prolly the best player on OSU's D, but he can only cover one of Hazelton, Turner, Williams, or Johnson.

[rockymtn devil]

Fair enough, but I never said OSU had no talent. I just think from top to bottom, USC has a ton more. OSU has a strong defense, no doubt. However, USC has the tools and weapons on O to challenge that D, while the OSU offense, outside of Wells who will be less 100%, doesn't have the same talent, especially at the QB position where Boeckman has been horrible in big games. The bowl game from last year for evidence. You're absolutely correct USC doesn't have great cornerbacks and it's something that slipped my mind a bit, but OSU's O-line struggled with Ohio last week. USC is a totally different beast. I also think that Dennis Dixon is worlds better at the QB spot than Boeckman will ever be.

USC on offense has 3 rbs that individually could start on almost any other team in the NCAAs. They have 3-4 WRs that are all legit deep threats. Sure Jenkins is good, prolly the best player on OSU's D, but he can only cover one of Hazelton, Turner, Williams, or Johnson.

I agree with all of this. Dixon and Boeckman aren't even comparable. I don't think Boeckman plays all that much tomorrow. I think Pryor takes a lot of snaps and he's much more like Dixon (probably better; bigger, faster, better passer).

Wells is not going to play. I spoke to someone close to the situation on Monday and was told that he would dress but would not be a major player, if he even got in. This person could be wrong, but they've been right on every aspect of this story so far (mainly that OSU would put out mixed signals all week despite Beanie's status being well known). That's why I think the Buckeyes will come out with a different look.

[ugadevil]

I agree with all of this. Dixon and Boeckman aren't even comparable. I don't think Boeckman plays all that much tomorrow. I think Pryor takes a lot of snaps and he's much more like Dixon (probably better; bigger, faster, better passer).

Wells is not going to play. I spoke to someone close to the situation on Monday and was told that he would dress but would not be a major player, if he even got in. This person could be wrong, but they've been right on every aspect of this story so far (mainly that OSU would put out mixed signals all week despite Beanie's status being well known). That's why I think the Buckeyes will come out with a different look.

Has this source indicated the Pryor is going to get a lot of playing time? If Pryor could go Vince Young on the Trojans, there's no telling what will happen in this game. However, if Tressel uses Pryor in the same way as he used him in the past couple games, which was sparingly, I doubt he has enough time to make an impact. Still, I expect USC to win big, regardless of who Ohio State puts out there.

[rockymtn devil]

Has this source indicated the Pryor is going to get a lot of playing time? If Pryor could go Vince Young on the Trojans, there's no telling what will happen in this game. However, if Tressel uses Pryor in the same way as he used him in the past couple games, which was sparingly, I doubt he has enough time to make an impact. Still, I expect USC to win big, regardless of who Ohio State puts out there.

My belief that Pryor will get a lot of snaps is based on my gut. What I've been told is that they used a VERY short list of plays against Ohio (no more than 10 offensive plays were used last weekend) and that the point in playing this Chris Wells-will-he-play game was simply to make USC prepare for a traditional offense. My inference from that is that OSU won't use a traditional offense.

I also know that Tressel wanted to put Pryor in quite a bit last week but that his OC disagreed. Head Coach obviously has the veto, but Tressel didn't exercise it.

I just don't see OSU's defense giving up enough points for it to be a blowout. USC runs a pretty traditional offense. Buckeyes have done well against those styles in the past few years.

[SoCalDukeFan]

that Ohio State has stunk up the BCS the last two years.

I think many want to see USC win hoping it will keep OSU out of the next BCS game.

I will be at the game. Actually if OSU uses the frosh qb they might win.

It will be fun.

SoCal

[terrih]

I happened to have to be in LA for a meeting Friday, so making a weekend of it and going to the game. I am just hoping for a great show by both teams. I don't really care who wins.

Fingers crossed that Ohio State can keep it close.

[ugadevil]

The USC student section is chanting overrated and it's not even halftime!

[RelativeWays]

If Pete Carroll runs up the score, which he said he would do and it looks that way, do you think its justified if an Ohio State Player tries to take out a USC player with a cheap shot? I don't think either are ethical at all BTW but I could take a bad loss, but not an intentional embarrassment.

[allenmurray]

If Pete Carroll runs up the score, which he said he would do and it looks that way, do you think its justified if an Ohio State Player tries to take out a USC player with a cheap shot?

No. Never. If you don't want the other team to score, play defense - this isn't Pee Wee football. Intentionally trying to injure another player? The two are nowhere near comprable.

[ugadevil]

If Pete Carroll runs up the score, which he said he would do and it looks that way, do you think its justified if an Ohio State Player tries to take out a USC player with a cheap shot? I don't think either are ethical at all BTW but I could take a bad loss, but not an intentional embarrassment.

If USC loses a player to a cheap shot, they probably have a potential first round draft pick as his back-up. If I was a high profile high school recruit, I'd love to go play for Pete Carroll. It just seems like his teams are always having fun.

[RelativeWays]

It does seem like they do. I don't think Carroll is like Frank Beamer or Les Miles (they will go out of their way to ruin their opponents) but he'll try to score on every offensive possesion he has. That bit today where Duke opted not to kick the field goal at the end of the game to show some class, USC goes for the endzone.