Carolina early entry vigil

[Jumbo]

Important to note that this isn't official. This is what DraftExpress actually says: "Tyler Hansbrough is expected to announce soon that he will be returning to North Carolina for his junior season. A family member of his that was in Atlanta made sure to let people know that he will almost certainly be back."

[Wander]

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not as if the point guard is either going to be Ty Lawson or Bobby Hurley. You're not picking a fullcourt-oriented point guard vs. a halfcourt-oriented point guard of equal skill level/talent. You're picking between Lawson and Frasor, and, with all respect to Bobby, Lawson is much, much, much better than Frasor.

As for Wright, the kid played very well in the halfcourt setting as well, so the argument doesn't even apply there. Losing Wright is a significant loss - there's no way UNC becomes better because they lose him.

[ikiru36]

Important to note that this isn't official. This is what DraftExpress actually says: "Tyler Hansbrough is expected to announce soon that he will be returning to North Carolina for his junior season. A family member of his that was in Atlanta made sure to let people know that he will almost certainly be back."

Exactly. Was just checking on this, myself. Anyways, he certainly may be back but an unidentified "family member" saying "almost certainly" is definitely different than specifically announcing his intention. I imagine we'll know a lot more about many of these guys intentions within about a week or so and there are myriad reasons that people spread rumours, which this thusfar sounds to be.

[greybeard]

Roy, as a coach, has always loved this run-out game. IMO, it might have cost him more than one NCAA championship, including this year. When he is loaded, as he was this year, he cannot help himself. In fac, even if he wasn't so in love with the run-out game, he would have little choice. As it is, terrific players were getting very little minutes.

So, if Lawson and Wright are back, so is Roy-ball. The fault, dear Wander, is not in the players Lawson and Wright, but in Roy, who can't let go of it. Too bad, huh?

[gw67]

Two years ago, UNC had a decent team and they played uptempo. I would expect them to play that way next year regardless of player losses to the NBA. Frasor was hurt for much of the past season. He was a decent point guard two years ago and has a good a/TO ratio for the games he has played in his first two seasons. Ellington should improve and Green and Ginyard should replace Terry. Hansbrough will be the best big man in the ACC and Thompson/Stevenson should replace Wright. Not a great lineup, but a very good team on paper. If Lawson stays, they are deeper and better.

gw67

[Wander]

Roy, as a coach, has always loved this run-out game. IMO, it might have cost him more than one NCAA championship, including this year. When he is loaded, as he was this year, he cannot help himself. In fac, even if he wasn't so in love with the run-out game, he would have little choice. As it is, terrific players were getting very little minutes.

So, if Lawson and Wright are back, so is Roy-ball. The fault, dear Wander, is not in the players Lawson and Wright, but in Roy, who can't let go of it. Too bad, huh?

You're stretching things and just looking for reasons to justify your ridiculous statements. His run-out game didn't cost him an NCAA championship this year. - that doesn't make sense at all.

You are completely underestimating one of the best coaches, point guards, and forwards in the ACC.

[Drebly1]

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not as if the point guard is either going to be Ty Lawson or Bobby Hurley. You're not picking a fullcourt-oriented point guard vs. a halfcourt-oriented point guard of equal skill level/talent. You're picking between Lawson and Frasor, and, with all respect to Bobby, Lawson is much, much, much better than Frasor.

As for Wright, the kid played very well in the halfcourt setting as well, so the argument doesn't even apply there. Losing Wright is a significant loss - there's no way UNC becomes better because they lose him.

I don't think that any sane person would consider the Heels better without Wright. My take is that the Heels can more easily afford to lose Wright than Lawson. Lawson, in my humble opinion, is not ready to play professionally. He is indeed very fast, but his perimeter game is not exactly polished, and his ability to make things happen when he takes the ball to the basket is lacking. If Wright defects (and a top-5 draft position more than justifies this) he has adequate players ready to step in and contribute. I cannot say that Frasor running the point makes me particularly confident. My prediction is that Lawson and Hansbrough stay, and Wright goes. Now all my Carolina brethren need is a valid excuse for Roy not winning it all in 2008 and we will be set.

[Wander]

I don't think that any sane person would consider the Heels better without Wright. My take is that the Heels can more easily afford to lose Wright than Lawson. Lawson, in my humble opinion, is not ready to play professionally. He is indeed very fast, but his perimeter game is not exactly polished, and his ability to make things happen when he takes the ball to the basket is lacking. If Wright defects (and a top-5 draft position more than justifies this) he has adequate players ready to step in and contribute. I cannot say that Frasor running the point makes me particularly confident. My prediction is that Lawson and Hansbrough stay, and Wright goes. Now all my Carolina brethren need is a valid excuse for Roy not winning it all in 2008 and we will be set.

I agree completely with everything you say.

[Patrick Yates]

If you are Bobby Frasor, and Tywon Lawson comes back, what do you do?

The heels are a virtual lock to land Larry Drew, the no. 2 pg (behind super freak jennings) in the class of 2008. If Lawson comes back, looking at leaving next year (probably), his replacement is comming in the next year as LD plays a similiar game to TL, which is the style Ol Roy wants to play (for better or worse).

BF might never get off the bench again. Given UNC's powerful staple of wings and SGs, where do BF's minutes and shots come from? He was a McD's AA, and there are tons of high major programs that would salivate over him, especially in the Big 10 where he is a prototypical PG.

If TL leaves, BF stays put. If TL stays, BF would be smart to hit the road.

One way or another, UNC gets thinner at the PG this year.

Patrick Yates

[greybeard]

You're stretching things and just looking for reasons to justify your ridiculous statements. His run-out game didn't cost him an NCAA championship this year. - that doesn't make sense at all.

You are completely underestimating one of the best coaches, point guards, and forwards in the ACC.

Beg to differ. You have another reason all those Kansas teams didn't win? Why they still don't? As in the big one? This is my guess. What's yours?

You like the run-out game, fine, that is what makes horse racing. Some might think that calling my statements "ridiculous" is opprobrius. Me, I wouldn't say so because that would be rude. You do know what rude means?

UNC lost many games this year that teams with their kind of talent shouldn't. I happen to believe that Roy's style of play is conducive to being more prone to that.

No one is saying that he is not a great, great coach.

"The errors of great men are venerable, they are more fruitful than the truths of lesser men."

Personally, I prefer K's approach to the game above Roy's, both from an esthetic, and functional perspective. K would never opt for the run-out style that Roy prefers, and there have been teams that were oh so built for it. J Will at the point, Maggette on the bench, flyers on the wings. If you prefer the run out style and care to explain yourself, I'm all ears.

What I meant to say is that I preferred UNC two years ago, to this past year, and it's championship team, in my opinion, was closer to the former than the latter. What is your view?

[Troublemaker]

If Lawson comes back, we would need Collison, Afflalo, Oden, Green, Hibbert, etc to come back as well. I shudder at the thought of another UNC championship. Agree that Lawson is the key. With him there, UNC never has to play against a set defense.

[Wander]

Beg to differ. You have another reason all those Kansas teams didn't win? Why they still don't? As in the big one? This is my guess. What's yours?

You like the run-out game, fine, that is what makes horse racing. Some might think that calling my statements "ridiculous" is opprobrius. Me, I wouldn't say so because that would be rude. You do know what rude means?

Who's talking about Kansas? We're talking about this year, and Roy's run-out style did not cause him to lose a championship this year. Unless you were watching a different UNC-Georgetown game than I was.

I don't like the run-out game. My favorite style of play is actually the lockdown defense of Southern Illinois.

Your statements suggesting that UNC wouldn't be hurt - and might even be improved - by losing Wright and Lawson are absurd, and they display a poor understanding of either those two individuals or the UNC team as a whole. There's plenty of room for intelligent debate on which one of Wright/Lawson is more valuable and their exact roles on the team, but your statements are, in fact, ridiculous. There's no need to be sensitive about it either - I'm not insulting you, just pointing out that you're very wrong about something.

[DevilWolf]

Is it really even a question if Hansbrough will be back next year?

[yancem]

A team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach is not going to "struggle to stay in the top 25. " However, Lawson is probably the difference between UNC being a serious title contender and a Top 25 team.

Does a team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach really sound that much better than a team with a top 6 of McRoberts, Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Scheyer and Thomas with Coach K as the coach?

Granted, next year's ACC will most likely be weaker than this year's and next year's UNC team will be more experienced than this year's Duke team but compare them player by player with based on your expectations of the UNC players next year vs your expectations for the Duke players prior to this season.

Who would you taken Paulus or Frasor? Nelson or Ginyard? Henderson or Green? Scheyer or Ellington? Thomas or Thompson? McRoberts or Hansbough? If you'd take more than 3 UNC players then you probably didn't have very high expectations for this years team. Hans is the only true star for UNC next year if Lawson and Wright are gone. Ellington could be you never know. They may jell well and be great or they could fall in and out of the top 25 and be .500 in the ACC just like Duke did this year.

[Wander]

Does a team with a top 6 of Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Ellington, Frasor, and Thompson with Roy Williams as the coach really sound that much better than a team with a top 6 of McRoberts, Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Scheyer and Thomas with Coach K as the coach?

Remember, though, you're comparing the Duke players of this past year to the UNC players of next year. That's an important aspect of the comparison you're making.

Hansbrough 2008 over McRoberts 2007, Thompson 2008 over Thomas 2007, Ellington 2008 over Scheyer 2007, and Green 2008 over Henderson 2007. Ginyard 2008 about the same as Nelson 2007. Paulus is the only one I'd give a clear advantage to over Frasor.

I expect the Duke freshmen - Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas - to all improve significantly though. For example, there's no way Ellington was better than Scheyer this season, and I think Scheyer will be better again next season, but if you're comparing next year's Ellington to this year's Scheyer... that's a big difference.

[dukeENG2003]

Judging from the 2003 in your moniker you may not remember how adept Ferry was at drawing at fouls that had most non Duke fans screeching.

Just because a Duke player did it doesn't mean I have to like it. Duke players, even those with their jerseys retired, aren't beyond reproach. I wasn't a big fan of the Shane Battier flop either (although I recognize that only a small percentage of the charges he drew were flops, and the line between a flop and a legitimate charge call is blurry at best). If it was indeed a focus of of his game to try and draw fouls rather than try and score from the field, then I guess I dislike that as well.

As a basketball player myself as well as a fan, nothing aggravates me more than those players who focus on drawing fouls more than playing the game as it was meant to be played. This is just my opinion of course, I realize that it is not my position to dictate to others how the game is to be played, all I can speak to is how I THINK it should be played and how I try to play myself.

[MarkD83]

Patrick Yates is correct. When it comes to declaring for the draft don't believe what anyone says until the deadline passes.

Also, one poster mentioned that Lawson does not have the skills to play in the NBA. Since when did that stop anyone from going pro early?

Finally, every year I read threads about what colleges could do to keep more players from going pro. (This might as well be the thread.) All of the suggestions revolve around what the NBA should do. The NCAA needs to wake up and realize that the NBA wants everyone to declare for the draft.

A good NBA general manager wants lots of players so that he can claim that he will draft some average player, in order for a bad general manager to believe the hype and make a bad choice.

The owners want lots of players so that they can draft someone with potential and let go a veteran who is being paid more. In addition, if there are lots of quality players in the draft the owners can get one of them in the 2nd round and pay them less than they are worth.

If the NCAA wants to keep players in college they need to do something drastic. My suggestion is the NCAA should let a player declare for the draft, get drafted, go tryout and if they don't like the team they are on or they are cut they can come back in January and play for their college team. If they take any money during this time they need to repay the NCAA and their "amateur" status will be restored. Sounds stupid but its better than what happens now.

[glutton]

I've tried to hate Hansbrough but I can't. He plays hard all the time and is a reliable free throw shooter. He doesn't showboat or thump his own chest. Did I mention he plays hard all the time? I can't hate guys like that.

I agree he gets away with a certain amount of rough play, but on the other hand he is constantly clobbered down low. I think it cuts both ways enough to be a wash.

weird... I have absolutely no trouble hating hansbrough. it's not quite the same as the disdain I have towards someone like rudy gay (who can barely be bothered to try most of the time, and showboats when he does). but the way hansbrough reacts to being fouled, and having fouls called against him... it seems very much like a "he can dish out, but he can't take it" sort of situation. plus, sometimes I just want to reach into the tv and close his mouth for him.

[phaedrus]

lawson has expressed his distaste for practicing. he's not going to stay around to "polish" his perimeter game.

[Carter431]

Do we already know that GT's Young is declaring? Did I miss that article?