Carolina early entry vigil

[Delaware]

All three will leave, I believe. Noone knows, but I have heard from some UNC folks that this is likely. All three would definitely have gone had they won the whole thing.

[Matches]

Wright's definitely gone. Despite his post-game comments yesterday, I think there's a good chance Lawson departs as well. Hansbrough would be a long shot - most likely he will return.

Ellington is definitely not coming out.

[RelativeWays]

I don't see Hansbrough leaving, pro scouts aren't too high on his game and he is going to need to develope a consistant jumper to be appealing to pro teams. The way he plays the post now may not be as successful in the NBA with bigger true centers guarding him. Wright and Lawson are gone. Frasor and Thomas are about as capable as Paulus in the guard position but Paulus is a much better scorer. I think they have a red shirt freshman from Greensboro Ithat I think plays guard. He'll get PT next year. I think Duke and UNC will be pretty evenly matched. Both will be pretty experienced teams, Duke will have the edge in new talent, even without Patterson.

[Troublemaker]

Lawson said: ""I mean... I've got no decision to make, I'll probably be back next year...most likely...100%"

Lawson's comments scare the crap out of me. He's the guy we really need to leave. The engine. Did you see how many easy shots he created for his teammates yesterday with his speed?

I do think that these types of comments/promises following a heartbreaking defeat should be regarded lightly. In a week or so, Lawson will be over the loss. He'll examine his options and get word that he's likely middle of the first round and guaranteed first rounder overall. He has to be. There are probably three guys on this planet who move as fast as him with the basketball. School sucks. Having no money sucks. Go pro, young Tywon. You know it's the right thing to do.

[Troublemaker]

If Wright and Lawson go, then Tyler can stay. We owe him a couple of thrashings.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Wright is almost certainly gone. For Lawson, I'd say it's 60/40 that he's staying. I'm almost positive that Hansbrough and Ellington are staying.

Our future success depends on Lawson maybe more than anyone else. While Wright's leaving will hurt us, I think Thompson can step in and play pretty well along side Hansbrough. Since we have no recruits coming in, Lawson leaving would mean that Frasor and QT will be the main PGs. Frasor is decent but he has no where near the skills of Lawson.

[wilson]

mean absolutely nothing. A few years ago (to be fair, after winning a title), Carmelo made a comment to the effect of "I thought you were supposed to go to college for four years."
Not even two weeks ago, McBob expressed his commitment to his teammates and said "we have to get better."
I suppose that was so "we" could pack our bags a week later.
I'll just wait for things to shake out. In the meantime, I'll hope for the best while expecting the worst.

[throatybeard]

Lawson said: ""I mean... I've got no decision to make, I'll probably be back next year...most likely...100%"

There are probably three guys on this planet who move as fast as him with the basketball.

And I think Ellington might be one of the three.

[JasonEvans]

Wright is gone for sure, in my opinion. He played pretty darn well late in the season and his draft stock is such (top 5) that coming back would not seem to make sense.

Lawson will stay, I think. He showed a ton of speed but struggled a bit in the NCAA tourney with his shot/scoring. I think he would be a mid-late first rounder if he came out. His stock could get a lot higher by waiting a year and having another strong season. The question is, does Lawson want to stay or want to go? We have all heard the reports about him not being very into his class work.

Hanbrough's stock has to be sky high at this point. He was a stud in the NCAA tourney. Don't forget that he did a lot of damage against Georgetown when matched against guys like Green and Hibbert, who the NBA sees as legit first-round prospects. To me, the notion that Hansy will not score at the next level seems false. It is not like hard work is suddenly not something that matters. Hansbrough will be a NBA player (I see him as a solid 6-8th man on a good team or a starting PF on a team with some issues at that position). He is never going to be a high lottery pick but if he comes out now he goes in the top 20 picks, I think. I don't think his stock can get higher. He just has to decide if he wants to leave now or hang around and try to win a national title (which may be muuuuch harder with Wright gone and will be almost impossible if Lawson is gone too).

-Jason

[kramerbr]

Lawson will stay. His shot is worse then Ed Cota's.

[Patrick Yates]

Carolina will be losing a significant amount of talent this offseason, by hook or by crook. Much of what happens will be determined by events at the FF this weekend. UNC flaming out early (though hilarious) does not help Duke next year in that it will curtail the exodus to the pros.

I think Wright is gone. Nothing to come back for other than endorsements. Oden and Durant will get the lion's share of those this year, with the Gators getting in on the action should they repeat. I still think Wright is out the door. If Wright does not leave, Tyler probably sticks around (unless he gets tired of sharing the ball and the acclaim). And Thompson and Setephenson are gone via transfer. It is one thing to sit for 1 year while you win a NC (in a year where it should be [and was] impossible to be recruited over), it is another to sit for a second year with a top recruiting class in the offing. If Wright and Hans stick around, one or both their backups transfer, leaving UNC weakened down low.

Conversly, UNC is similarly weakened if Hans and Wright bolt, leaving the backups as the only viable options down low.

I do not know how this will play out. A FF or NC run would have almost surely pushed TH out the door (Wright is gone, 99% sure). If TH comes back, one of the backups might transfer, might not.

Something that has got to be plagueing TH is the belief that Stephenson and Thompson will ultimately surpass him in ability. They may never take his starting job, but as they progress they will take his shots. They are too good to be his sidekicks for three more years. He lost enough shots to Wright this year, TH may not want to stick arround for the Stephenson/Thompson ascendancy.

Worst case (for us) TH and Stephenson and Thompson stick arround (UNC keeping all four is a crack induced fantasy, see above reasoning).

UNC will see attrition in the backcourt/wing this year. I think Lawson will go pro. He will declare and not hire an agent. Once teams get a look at him in private workouts his stock will sky rocket. The only negatives (regardless of our opinions regarding his personality, we MAY be biased in that regard) are things he cannot really improve, namely his height. According to Roy, whom I tend to believe, TL is a better shot than Felton, it is just that TL doesn't shoot that often. In workouts, TL's driving and finishing ability (even without dunks) will wow the scouts. He could easily be the first PG taken (Law is more of a combo who will not wow in private workouts). I think TL is the most pro ready (with a decent upside) in the draft. Only KS has comparable talent in the ready now/potential catagory.

Two caveats to this: Crittendon and Conley. Crittendon, while not as ready as TL now, has a huge upside. If TL maxes out his ability, he can be a good to very good pro guard, playing in numerous all-star games. But he will never be a true superstar due to his only failing, his height. Crittendon can be a franchise type player who regularly contends for MVP. Will he? I do not know, but if he works almost as hard as TL, Crittendon will be a much better pro, simply because he has better physical gifts. TL's best phyical gift, his speed, will be negated by the fact that his teammates can not match him, so the speed is somewhat negated. Crittendon is an upside pick, this year he would not help a pro team, and another year at GT will turn Crittendon into a top 5 pick, so I bet he comes back. TL would definitely leave this year to aviod being behind Crittendon next year. But might stay to avoid him this year should Crittendo come out.

Conley could also affect TL. If OSU wins the NC behind an All-FF or FF-MVP performance by Conley, he might go. It is possible that Conely would go ahead of TL in such a scenario, if not already. Conley probably doesn't need the money, but he would be foolish not to capitalize on strong buzz following a good weekend next week. If Conley, Crittendon, and KS's stable of PG's stays in school, TL will be out the door, becaus they can all surpass or equal him in the draft next year, whereas there would be no comp this year.

TL is the key to UNC next year. With him, regardless of Wright and Hans, UNC will be the best team early in conference, with Duke and GT hot on their Heels, if you will, with Duke and GT easily capable of overtaking them late in the year. If TL goes (and I think he does, seems to be some personality conflict there), UNC is left with a foot-slow PG in Frasor, with a weak backup (who might transfer). Regardless of backup's (can't recall his name due to his total lack of relvance to the game of basketball) decision, I forsee many minutes at PG for Ellington, a-la JS for us. This might not appeal to him, or it may. Whatever, without TL UNC is severly weakened at the PG next year. Frasor is one of the least athletic PG's in conference, and his play this year cannot do wonders for his confidence going into next year.

Also, if TL stays, BF is gone, cause he will be buried next year, and probably after that when-if Larry Drew show up. So UNC will lose a point this year. Losing TL helps us more, but losing BF would impair their depth, and would prevent Ol'Roy from using the fear of imminent replacement to bludgeon TL into doing what Roy wants. Also, TL would be forced to slow down some, because he would be playing many more minutes next year, probably upwards of 30.

I think that UNC will see some attrition on the wing next year. Green and Ginyard are the same player, and Ellington is a smaller, better shooting, poorer defending version of the two. A strong FF would have pushed Ellington out the door, but that didn't happen. Unless he is unhappy, I think he doesn't transfer. That leaves Ginyard and Green. I know that more minutes are available with Terry's graduation, but Graves will eat up some of those minutes. With Delvin Roe in offing in 2008-2009, One or the other (but not both) may decide that there is greener grass to be found somewhere else.

Worst Case (for us) is that Carolina only loses Wright (NBA) and Frasor (transfer), plus one of the wings (probably). They would be very good next year, but they would have a low ceiling for improvement. They would be almost as good from Day 1 as they would be at the end of the year. The loss of depth would impair their ability to run over the course of the year, and without Wrigh they would lack a freak athlete to inspire fear in the hearts of the opposition. All in all, nowhere near the juggernaught they should have been this year (nice coaching Roy, at least in '99 we got to the NC and almost won).

Best Case (for us, and entirely possible) is that Wright, Lawson and TH go pro. TH may decide that life without TL and Wright will be a steady stream of 3-man nets every time he touches the ball, not unlike Elton would have faced had he returned for his Jr year. This might not appeal to him, so he might go. UNC would be thin up front, and not particularly daunting at the PG slot. They would be strong on the wing, but I can see chemistry problems besetting the trio as each one tries to be the man for UNC to fill the void. This could be another miss the NCAAs type year.

I believe that the last case is more likely than the first, but anything in between can and will occur.

Only one thing is sure. UNC will suffer significant losses this summer, either by early entry or Transfer. It is one thing to keep this many kids together for 1 year to make an NC run, but I do not think Roy can keep them all toghether for multiple years because of ego, desire for PT, etc. UNC will be worse next year, barring a miracle. Maybe still as good as us, but probably worse, and maybe significantly worse.

This does not have any bearing on our NC title hopes next year, merely UNC's ability relative to us next year.

My opinion

Patrick Yates

[watzone]

Wright 95-5
Lawson 80-20
Hansbrough 45-55

[Jumbo]

I heard something different, though this was obviously before yesterday:

Wright: 100%
Hansbrough: Pretty darn close to 100%
Lawson: 50/50
Ellington: Returning

[gw67]

Patrick - I don't always agree but I enjoy reading your posts. The different scenarios that you paint are interesting and possible although Wright and Lawson leaving and Hansbrough staying with no transfers seems the most likely scenario on the surface, IMO.

I also think that a team of Frasor, Ellington, Ginyard, Thompson and Hansbrough with Green, Stephenson, Thomas and Graves on the bench would be very competitive and perhaps a little stronger than the Devils on paper.

gw67

[DankeShane]

I heard something different, though this was obviously before yesterday:

Wright: 100%
Hansbrough: Pretty darn close to 100%
Lawson: 50/50
Ellington: Returning

100% = 100% gone?

[Jumbo]

100% = 100% gone?

Yes. I'd heard that Wright was out and Hansbrough had all but decided to leave too. This was right before the start of the Tourney.

[tux]

I agree, UNC will still be quite good next year regardless. Duke can close the gap IMO, but that assumes that pretty much everyone stays (excepting McRoberts, of course) and that at least Wright leaves.

I hate this segment of the year b/w tourney and draft deadline.

[Patrick Yates]

Patrick - I don't always agree but I enjoy reading your posts. The different scenarios that you paint are interesting and possible although Wright and Lawson leaving and Hansbrough staying with no transfers seems the most likely scenario on the surface, IMO.

I also think that a team of Frasor, Ellington, Ginyard, Thompson and Hansbrough with Green, Stephenson, Thomas and Graves on the bench would be very competitive and perhaps a little stronger than the Devils on paper.

gw67

Thanks GW, I feel the same about you. The UNC Team you listed looks OK on paper. If you had TL instead of BF, they would be good. I feel that BF is not due for a good year next year. TL was the catalyst/\.

1. He is a defensive liability on par with Paulus, but at least Paulus can shoot and run the team with some degree of ability. BF is not a great shot, nor is he great at running the team. A dedicated Defender could shut BF down and your version of UNC's team's offense would grind to a halt, much worse than Duke's this year, becuase those players, especially those posts, are much more dependant on getting good set ups from the PG to get going. Honestly, we could sic Nelson or Smith on BF, and totally shut him down. GP could at least slow Ellington down, especially without a point to set Wayne up. Also, BF will suffer from comparisons to TL. While on the same team, BF is appreciated for hustle, and giving TL a blow. Without TL, the first time BF looks bad in a game (which will happen early, and against a lessor team) BF will hear about it from the media, fans, opposition, etc. Imagine what Paulus went through, only there was no one to compare Paulus to other than players who no longer had any eligibility left when they departed Duke (Livingston technically, but he would never have stayed four years). BF could hear a lot of "what if" regarding TL, and that will get old fast. With TL gone, they are essentially the same team as last year, a good, not great team that Duke can play with.

2. They are very shallow next year. Can't run, and Roy is only comfortable when he can turn teams loose, not BF's forte. I think their half court with BF and without BW and TH is dog foogly next year. A dedicated Defense could rattle them early, they quit, and then get destroyed by an unselfish team, like we will be next year. Any injury to a post or at the PG slot would decimate them. Without BW, our posts, even without PP match up ok. BZ can lean on them, and while LT or KS would give up a lot of weight, neither Thompson nor Stephenson nor TH will relish chasing either of our PFs arround all night. That is at least a wash.

3. Chemistry. Given your UNC team a (my team, whatever) the 3 clear cut second best players are Ellington, Ginyard, and Green, in no particular order. I see those guys not getting along as they fight for minutes and shots. Any of the three could be a superstar next year while one of the three plays a minor role, and going into the summer I have no idea who fills which roll. Also, looking at Thompson and Stephenson, they are very similiar. They might have problems as they jockey for position on the team. Chemistry problems on overwhelmingly talented teams result in decent years, like the one they had this year. With that crop of talent, any chemistry problems will be a death knell for the team.

That is why I like Duke in relation to the listed team. Virtually all of this year's difference makers are gone for UNC. Much like Duke this year, a bunch of Robin's with no Batman to play off.

Patrick Yates

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

Is it possible that TH will feel he does not get enough protection in college, ie Nosegate, and that in the Pros he will get more protection? Of course it would be silly to think this way, he is no Patrick Ewing Sr. However, this is a fans board so it is ok to speculate.

GO DUKE!

[Carter431]

Pure speculation but I see Wright and Lawson leaving and TH staying. IMO, TH is a much better college player than he will ever be in the NBA.