Carolina early entry vigil

[ACCBBallFan]

Still have to wonder how much of a difference Brandan would have made at Duke.

It did not affect UNC since Thaddeus Young would have taken his place but would have had a ripple effect on Ga Tech.

[pfrduke]

Still have to wonder how much of a difference Brandan would have made at Duke.

It did not affect UNC since Thaddeus Young would have taken his place but would have had a ripple effect on Ga Tech.

Having watched an awful lot of Duke, slightly less of UNC, and further slightly less of Georgia Tech, here's a three part answer.

Duke - huge difference. As a reliable back to the basket scorer (almost 66% from the floor) he could have played high-low with Josh a lot (a high-low game with those two could have been both beautiful and deadly). He would have also been a significant impact on the defensive end, providing another stud shot-blocker. And he possibly could have led to Duke playing a slightly more up-and-down style, since he can run, catch, and finish in transition. No increase in depth, as Thomas would not have matriculated, but gone to Rutgers instead (in all likelihood).

UNC - moderate difference. Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, while comparable in rankings, are not really comparable players. Without Wright, Thompson and Stepheson shoulder the post burden to the extent UNC wanted to play with two bigs. Young is much more of a wing, and even at 6'7" is not that great with his back to the basket. He would have taken minutes from Ellington, Green, Terry, and Miller (though Terry would himself have taken some of Wright's minutes). Wright played about 28-30 mpg - I would imagine 15 of those would have gone to Thompson, 5 to Stepheson, and the remaining 8-10 to Terry/Ginyard. Don't underestimate how crucial Wright was to the Heels' success this year - he was their best interior defender, a rebounder of almost equal ability to Hansbrough, and the second-fastest guy (behind Lawson) on the fast break. Oh, and he converted nearly 2/3 of his shots. To say Thompson and Stepheson could have smoothly stepped in without some drop-off short changes how special of a player Brandan Wright is.

Georgia Tech - big drop-off. Young was inconsistent, but was the Jackets' best player when he was on. While Crittenton, Morrow, et al. would still have had similar statistical seasons, the drop-off from Young to some combination of West, Faye, and Bell is huge - those three are solid players, particularly on defense, but simply couldn't provide the offensive threat of Young.

[phaedrus]

well, to complete the circle, you have to consider that lance thomas' matriculation at rutgers would have forced rutgers' stud freshman big man to commit to georgia tech. or not.

[ACCBBallFan]

UNC - moderate difference. Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, while comparable in rankings, are not really comparable players. Without Wright, Thompson and Stepheson shoulder the post burden to the extent UNC wanted to play with two bigs. Young is much more of a wing,

While I agree Young and Wright play different styles, I doubt UNC would have been pre-disposed to two bigs. I think Thaddeus Young would have moved into the role vacated by David Noel, that the returning players were already used to. It;s just when you have a weapon like wright, you use it.

Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson are not nearly as good as Thaddeus Young, at least not yet, neither as good as Lance Thomas nor any better than Brian Zoubek. I view Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard as better players, as sophomores than either of the UNC bigs would have been as frosh. They just had the misfortune of being behind the senior Terry.

I agree with your conclusion of moderate difference. My point was not so much UNC or GA Tech as what you elaborated on about Duke's potential high-low game. I also think it would have had a ripple effect of Zoubek developing more in that same role, once Brandan had proved its viability, and Duke continuously practiced it, rather than it being a total opposite of how Duke normally played.

Over his tenure at Duke, Lance will end up contributing more in three or four years than BW would have in one, just not the immediate impact. So longer term, no regrets, unless that one year would have gotten Duke further than it got UNC. Duke seemed one player away from being top tier, but my guess is that may have also ended in another Sweet 16 or possibly Elite Eight, not FF or NC.

[Coballs]

When Wright spurned Duke I was upset and somewhat surprised. It appeared as if Duke was the leader in his recruitment. In retrospect, we are now alot better off as UNC failed to go to the Final 4 with Wright and we have LT for the next 3 years.

[Waynne]

Why isn't Ty Lawson also declaring this year? Very likely he would go higher this year than next. He probably would be the first or second PG taken this year and could well be a lottery pick, while next year he will just be one of at least 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft. Don't they teach these young men anything at UNC?

[Bob Green]

Deon Thompson is the happiest man in Chapel Hill. His playing time should increase from 12.4 mpg to 25+ mpg with the departure of Wright (27 mpg). Thompson's skills are not as polished as Wright's skills, but Thompson is bulkier (245 pounds) and likes to play physical. With Hansbrough and Thompson starting together, Carolina will be a more physical team. However, they lose Wright's wingspan and presence as an intimidating shot-blocker, and Thompson does not run the floor as well.

Ty Lawson returning as their Floor General means that Carolina will still be a very talented team. I expect them to be ranked in the top three when we beat them in Chapel Hill. By the time we beat them in Cameron, they will have fallen to around number ten.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[kydevil]

Why isn't Ty Lawson also declaring this year? Very likely he would go higher this year than next. He probably would be the first or second PG taken this year and could well be a lottery pick, while next year he will just be one of at least 3 or 4 top PGs in the draft. Don't they teach these young men anything at UNC?

I'm sure Roy pulled Ty's string into keeping him around for one more year... it's a shame that he will have to compete with Rose, Mayo, Gordon, etc...

[dukelion]

Deon Thompson is the happiest man in Chapel Hill. His playing time should increase from 12.4 mpg to 25+ mpg with the departure of Wright (27 mpg). Thompson's skills are not as polished as Wright's skills, but Thompson is bulkier (245 pounds) and likes to play physical. With Hansbrough and Thompson starting together, Carolina will be a more physical team. However, they lose Wright's wingspan and presence as an intimidating shot-blocker, and Thompson does not run the floor as well.



Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Good point Bob,

Wright blocked 2 shots per game and altered countless others. UNC will really miss that and they have no adequate shot blocker to replace him.

Terry and Wright were both great athletes and UNC becomes much less athletic now that they are gone.

[Patrick Yates]

I'm sure Roy pulled Ty's string into keeping him around for one more year... it's a shame that he will have to compete with Rose, Mayo, Gordon, etc...

Now that Singletary has dclared, Ty may be smart to stay in CH next year.

I think Singletary will go pro. I said this weeks ago, and I beleive he will agent up and stay in the draft. Most of the decent players around him are gone. The coach is reportedly very abusive towards his players, and many do not like being yelled at. Last year the Cavs were pretty successful. I have stated my opinion that even with Singletary they were one of the 4 worst teams in the ACC next year. This means less exposure for Singletary in his SR year, a year when scouts start looking for flaws rather than potential. Realistically, Singletary has more to lose than TL by not coming back. Thus, next year's pg class gets a little weaker.

Also, how do we know that next year's class is all that at guard. Yes, based on projections/recruiting rankings, it SHOULD be loaded with PGs, but we know that those rankings are flawed.

Young at GT was supposed to be this all everything from day one, but he wasn't. The Arthur kid at KS was not as good as hyped. McBob is no superstar. Eillington is nowhere near as good as the hype stated.

What I am saying is that one or two of the "super recruits" at guard will be exposed next year. I don't know who, but one or two will. Rose at Mem is the real deal supposedly, but he is as close to a lock at PG as it can get.

Mayo can call himself a PG till the cows come home, but he is a SG, and a gunner at that. Also, he is really old, a la Hans, so the pros will start looking for flaws from day one. Same with Gordon, who has been a SG his entire career. He will really have to show me that he can run a team next year. He will get the chance reportedly, to be the PG at IU, but that could really backfire

Crittendon is one of the players who was exposed. He is good, with loads of potential, but he will have to produce to show it.

TL has a great situation next year. He is the starting PG on what will probably be the 1 team next year, and no worst than the 3 in preseason. Most, if not all, his games will be on national TV. I think UNC has less competition to reach the FF than this year (and even Roy admitted that G-Town was his biggest fear going into the ncaas, a nightmare matchup really).

If TL comes out this year, he must prove himself in individual workouts, especially with regards to his shooting. If he gets his shooting down this summer, and showcases it next year, he is a late lottery selection (probably his ceiling due to his short ceiling er height) without turning his hand. Strong workouts might even move him up.

Now that Singletary is in the draft, along with Conley, there are two guards potentially ahead of TL.

Now, sadly, I think TL comes back. Again, as satisfying as the G-Town game was, a UNC loss to OSU in the FF would have been great for Duke. TL and BW might have annouced within a week, with Hans following, thus decimating UNC. Now, they are again a prohibitive favorite to win the NC.

Crap.

Patrick Yates

[ikiru36]

Now that Singletary has dclared, Ty may be smart to stay in CH next year.

I think Singletary will go pro. I said this weeks ago, and I beleive he will agent up and stay in the draft. Most of the decent players around him are gone. The coach is reportedly very abusive towards his players, and many do not like being yelled at. Last year the Cavs were pretty successful. I have stated my opinion that even with Singletary they were one of the 4 worst teams in the ACC next year. This means less exposure for Singletary in his SR year, a year when scouts start looking for flaws rather than potential. Realistically, Singletary has more to lose than TL by not coming back. Thus, next year's pg class gets a little weaker.

Also, how do we know that next year's class is all that at guard. Yes, based on projections/recruiting rankings, it SHOULD be loaded with PGs, but we know that those rankings are flawed.

Young at GT was supposed to be this all everything from day one, but he wasn't. The Arthur kid at KS was not as good as hyped. McBob is no superstar. Eillington is nowhere near as good as the hype stated.

What I am saying is that one or two of the "super recruits" at guard will be exposed next year. I don't know who, but one or two will. Rose at Mem is the real deal supposedly, but he is as close to a lock at PG as it can get.

Mayo can call himself a PG till the cows come home, but he is a SG, and a gunner at that. Also, he is really old, a la Hans, so the pros will start looking for flaws from day one. Same with Gordon, who has been a SG his entire career. He will really have to show me that he can run a team next year. He will get the chance reportedly, to be the PG at IU, but that could really backfire

Crittendon is one of the players who was exposed. He is good, with loads of potential, but he will have to produce to show it.

TL has a great situation next year. He is the starting PG on what will probably be the 1 team next year, and no worst than the 3 in preseason. Most, if not all, his games will be on national TV. I think UNC has less competition to reach the FF than this year (and even Roy admitted that G-Town was his biggest fear going into the ncaas, a nightmare matchup really).

If TL comes out this year, he must prove himself in individual workouts, especially with regards to his shooting. If he gets his shooting down this summer, and showcases it next year, he is a late lottery selection (probably his ceiling due to his short ceiling er height) without turning his hand. Strong workouts might even move him up.

Now that Singletary is in the draft, along with Conley, there are two guards potentially ahead of TL.

Now, sadly, I think TL comes back. Again, as satisfying as the G-Town game was, a UNC loss to OSU in the FF would have been great for Duke. TL and BW might have annouced within a week, with Hans following, thus decimating UNC. Now, they are again a prohibitive favorite to win the NC.

Crap.

Patrick Yates

I agree that TL will likely have a good season should he stay at UNC next year (more and more definite by the day).

You do raise a fair point regarding the predicted relative strength of next year's draft vs. this year's. However, I would add the caveat that especially when it comes to PG's (and sub-6'0 one's at that) teams in the 1st round draft somewhat according to need. Therefore, unless a lot of team's top need is for a pure PG (no matter how small) the #5 PG in a given draft (even if, say, #8 overall) is likely gonna get drafted a bit lower than being the #2 PG (even if, say, #12 overall) in a different draft. My only other point of contention is that Singletary's decision may have partly been predicated upon Lawson's not going, for the precise reasons alluded to above.

I would still say that going this year (unless he was hearing that he simply wasn't Top 15 material this time around) is a better decision, from a pure draft position standpoint (especially since one would need to move up at least 3-4 spots to make up for the lost salary, while still being another year away from free agency).

All that being said, in Lawson's case, he probably was hurt more than most by his undistinguished tourney performance, especially given his small stature. Basically, as quick as he is, he's yet to show that he's the next TJ Ford (or something in that ballpark), and that's what he wants teams drafting him to be thinking. And, in all honesty, if he really is a kid who partly values the college experience such that it is a factor in his decision, I can't honestly diss him for that. Rather, I'll continue to diss away for his poor choice of campuses! :0)

P.S. I truly think that "prohibitive favorite" is too strong to describe them, without Wright. They lose a fair amount of athleticism between Wright and Terry. Make no mistake, UNC will be very good next year, but, with or without Patterson, we won't be an easy out either!

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!