Olympic Basketball - Australia Thread

[billybreen]

Let's see, we barely beat these guys 2 weeks ago without their best player. Call me a pessimist, but I think Bogut is worth at least a 20 point swing. Australia by 10.

[billybreen]

PS, sorry for stealing your thread, Blueintheface. I just wanted to get this party started quickly.

[BlueintheFace]

that's okay. I was really just going to link straight to Sheridan's new article up on ESPN.com which is really good with some interesting tidbits from Shanghai.

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer...germany-080818

Here are a few of my other thoughts. Feel free to comment

1) There is only one team left in this tournament who can say they had the US in striking distance, the Aussies. This will do worlds of good for their confidence.

2) Andrew Bogut- This is a huge addition... literally. The Aussies played us tight before with no Andrew Bogut. Now they have the high scorer back. Antsey and Bogut will be a formidable match. Plus, don't forget Australia has a point guard who might compete with Usain Bolt once this basketball competition is over... the kid is fast.

3) Australia has a nice combo of fast guard play, solid three point shooters, and large men. What they don't have is athletic wings to match up with us. I expect us to hit the lane hard with drives, and I expect the Aussies to hit us hard when we get to the lane. This could be a very intense game for awhile. Look for dirty plays and feuds on the court.

4) Kobe- It is time for Kobe to come through. He hasn't been playing horrible. He has been taking the shots he is supposed to and has been great on defense, but as the elimination rounds continue I expect him to step it up. The threes should start falling now... I hope.

5) Not Looking ahead but... If we win I believe we would probably draw Greece (the team I still believe has the best chance at beating us). Our road will not be easy...

[roywhite]

Okay, let's throw out some disclaimers:

This is single elimination, Australia played the US team tough in the exhibition game, Andrew Bogut is now in their lineup and playing well, Australia is not afraid of the US, the Boomers shot lights out against Lithuania.

That said, the USA will win by about 25. The team is on a mission, it has leadership on the bench and on the floor (Kobe, LeBron) that will not permit complacency, the team is improving, and no international team can match our wing players---Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwayne Wade.

[wilson]

Okay, let's throw out some disclaimers:

This is single elimination, Australia played the US team tough in the exhibition game, Andrew Bogut is now in their lineup and playing well, Australia is not afraid of the US, the Boomers shot lights out against Lithuania.

That said, the USA will win by about 25. The team is on a mission, it has leadership on the bench and on the floor (Kobe, LeBron) that will not permit complacency, the team is improving, and no international team can match our wing players---Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwayne Wade.

At the risk of piling on jinx material, I'd have to agree with this assessment. Every time I think this team can't get any better, they go out and do just that. I know that the Aussies hung with our boys a couple of weeks ago, but this quite simply isn't the same US team (does anyone really think we're 37 points better than Spain, but only 21 better than Angola?). This team knows that this is crunch time and that the medal round is where the true judgment of this squad will be written (and that's all before you factor Coach K's exhortations into the mix). I'm not saying that Team USA can't lose to Australia, just that they won't. Red, white, and blue by 20.

[roywhite]

According to the usabasketball.com site, the USA vs Australia game will be played at 8:00 PM Beijing time on 8/20, or 8:00 AM EDT. The winner of that game would face the winner of the 10:15 PM Beijing time (all games on 8/20) between Argentina and Greece.

The other side of the bracket is Spain vs Croatia at 2:30 PM Beijing time, and Lithuania vs China at 4:45 PM Beijing time.

Just speculating, but I think our road to Gold goes through Australia, Argentina, and Spain.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Let's see, we barely beat these guys 2 weeks ago without their best player. Call me a pessimist, but I think Bogut is worth at least a 20 point swing. Australia by 10.

I think we have to recognize the momentum U.S. has gained in its last three games.

vs. AUS (exhib): FG - 51%, 3Pt - 17%

vs. GRE: FG - 54%, 3Pt - 35%
vs. SPA: FG - 58%, 3pt - 48%
vs. GER: FG - 55%, 3pt - 42%

Also, we allowed Australia to shoot 48% from the field and 40% from 3pt land. In the 5 Olympic games, we're only allowing 41% and 27%.

At least from a numbers perspective, I don't see the addition of Bogut putting Australia over the top. We're playing so much better now. And I was impressed and encouraged that we played with such fire against Germany when we clearly could have had a let down.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I might have to be sick game day. It should be a good gamem, and I want to watch it live. Sounds like the Australians are a bit cocky, probably some locker room fodder in there for Kobe and company.

[moonpie23]

i agree with many of the assessments pro and con....the one thing i will point out is, Team USA is playing fierce defense...that may be the difference more than our somewhat inconsistent offensive play...


the aussies tried to muscle them up the first time and then they backed off when they got muscled back...

USA needs to stay focused and i don't see or hear anything that suggests they won't be...

[billybreen]

At least from a numbers perspective, I don't see the addition of Bogut putting Australia over the top. We're playing so much better now. And I was impressed and encouraged that we played with such fire against Germany when we clearly could have had a let down.

Indeed, my prediction of Kaman hitting a 3 at the buzzer to beat us seems silly in retrospect, but that won't stop me from predicting that Bogut will hit a 3 at the buzzer to beat us Wednesday.

[moonpie23]

billy,

could you bring a little more negativity? i still think the sun is gonna come up tomorrow...

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I assume breen is just trying to generate discussion. That's cool.

But there may not be much to discuss. In the end, we clearly have unmatched talent on the floor and coaching that is second to none. It comes down to one thing and one thing only... focus. I believe we showed today in a meaningless game that we have the focus necessary to make quick work of our next three opponents, whoever they may be.

[billybreen]

billy,

could you bring a little more negativity? i still think the sun is gonna come up tomorrow...

There's a method to my madness. You can thank me when it's all over.

[BD80]

Australia will not be able to keep the game close. Bogut does not add to the team speed, and the US team speed has been killing its opponents. The fact that the Aussies are the only ones to have come close so far will add to the motivation level - which was obviously lacking in the previous matchup. Further, Coach K has a chance to specifically prepare for Australia, which bodes very well for us.

Argentina is a good second round test for us, but their roster is too thin to stay with us, and their point guard position too weak.

Spain will have a tough road to get back to the finals, they have been too inconsistent in their play. Spain could be the toughest matchup if they are hot, but I bet they get upset by one of the three teams they might face.

Colangalo and Coach K have put together a truly awesome team with tremendous defense and off-the-charts athleticism. Watching CP III and Bosh and Wade and Williams come off the bench and RAISE the tempo almost seems unfair. What is scary is that the team is getting better as they get used to each other on defense and as they see just how dominating they can be playing D the right way and at that level. McMillan and D'Antoni were sensational choices as assistants.

Somehow I think this will have a positive spill over for Duke and Duke recruiting.

[roywhite]

This USA team has reached the developmental stage of the best Coach K Duke teams---virtually on auto-pilot. The team has complete "buy-in" on the principles of defense and teamwork. They know what their roles are and they are executing without hesitation. There are on the court leaders in Bryant and James, similar to the way Battier and Hurley/Laettner were in their championship seasons.

I've seen several of the players interviewed recently, and you can just hear certain Coach K sayings coming out in their words. A great group of athletes pulling together---it's a beautfiul thing to watch.

[mgtr]

You can thank me when it's all over.

I wonder how many participants here recognize the source of this paraphrase?

[SilkyJ]

billy,

could you bring a little more negativity? i still think the sun is gonna come up tomorrow...

not to steel billy's thunder, but you should read his posts in all the threads relating to Team USA games. he's been predicting quite a few losses.

alternatively, read the 1st 7 words of wilson's thread above. that's all I'll say. (hope thats not too much billyboy)

[hc5duke]

Australia by 10.

Bogut will hit a 3 at the buzzer to beat us Wednesday.

Crap, the Australians have discovered a way to score 10 points with a 3-pointer! We're all doomed!

On a semi-related note, does anyone remember those basketball games on MTV in the 90s? I seem to remember they had a 20-ft tall basket installed on top of the regular one, and that was worth 10 points or something?

[billybreen]

Crap, the Australians have discovered a way to score 10 points with a 3-pointer! We're all doomed!

My theme for the day is lack of internal consistency. I'm doing well.

[YmoBeThere]

PS, sorry for stealing your thread, Blueintheface. I just wanted to get this party started quickly.

Very close to sampling C+C Music Factory...