USA Basketball Post-Exhibition/ Pre-Olympic Thread

[roywhite]

Actually, the USA team will play Canada, Turkey, Russia, and Australia in exhibitions prior to the Olympics, but the first game in Olympic play should be quite a scene. The host team will be very excited to play this one.

Will the USA have trouble with size inside?

[ugadevil]

Will Yao be playing?

[BlueintheFace]

I am in China right now and I can tell you a few things for sure...

1) Everyone in the entire country will be watching somewhere... somehow. For many, it could be the most important point of the Olympics (Badminton, Ping Pong, Riflery, Diving, and a few others are important, but the USA game is their big chance at true greatness and they know it.)

2) If China wins it will be bigger to them than the "Miracle on Ice" was for us. To this day many call that game a turning point in the cold war... in the world order. The Chinese see this in the same light. Should they win there will absolutely be articles for weeks on how America is shrinking as a world power. It would be one of their biggest victories in sports history and would be viewed as a step towards power in the global community.

3) The Chinese are pretty damn good. They have a very solid point guard and Yi Jianlin/ Yao Ming up front (with two other 7 footers waiting their turn.) Not too bad.

Here's hoping we don't overlook the first game and give the Chinese a reason to celebrate. Go USA!

[Edouble]

I've seen Boozer abuse Yao. I like our chances, but I wish I didn't have to wait a month and a half for the game.

[escobar]

I'm going to this game!! I am flying into Shanghai then travelling to Beijing, and will arrive the day before this game. I got my tickets through the UK ticketing agency, as I live in London...

I can't tell you how excited I am, just to see if these current US team will be able to handle the improvements other national teams have made...this really is the big chance for China to make their mark..

I just hope Yao is fully recovered for the game, I hear is back in training in July sometime...which gives him about 6 weeks.

[BlueintheFace]

After 5 games against:

Canada
Turkey
Lithuania
Russia
Australia

we have seen this team go up against some decent competition. However, I feel that we still don't have a great idea how the bench rotation is going to play out. K is either (1) still toying around with different lineups in different circumstances or (2) not showing the competition anything consistent so as to have a few tricks left for the knockout play.

Here are a few observations I have made over the course of these games. Please comment or add your own:

1) K definitely intends to use Paul and Williams together on occasion (specifically to break zones).

2) This team will struggle a bit when they can't turn defense into offense.

3) The pick and roll defense is much improved but still in need of some work. (I have been specifically impressed with how Deron Williams has foiled the pick and roll with his defense on the ball handler with good body position)

4) K might actually prefer Bosh to be the lone big man on the floor over dwight more than i thought. Foul shooting is a big part of this.

5) Kobe is truly a defensive force. I had no idea how great he could be on defense when he makes that his priority. The guy obviously has a brilliant defensive mind on the court and his positioning is almost never wrong. Who knew? I guess I shouldn't be surprised considering how smart he is on the offensive end.

6) Finally, I have a small prediction based on the past few games. I think K will send Lebron to the post a lot more once games start to count. He should really be able to abuse some of the players on him with his size and jumping ability.

Please add your own impressions and thoughts...

[gumbomoop]

I've watched significant portions of all 5 exhibitions. I'm willing to believe the US is the logical favorite, but people who know international bball are gingerly suggesting that it would be no surprise at all were Spain, Greece, or Argentina to take gold.

Watching clueless Rick Kamla and very informative Fran Fraschilla is.... ummmm... telling. I found symbolically very telling, for example, a small moment in the Turkey game (I think). US played good pick-n-roll defense, got a breakaway for a slam. Clueless Kamla fairly jumped out of his mic, screaming about the slam. Fraschilla calmly noted that the real key to the play--and by implication a key to US fortunes in Beijing--was fine defense. Kamla failed to pick up Fraschilla's signal, and continued to emote about a highlight-reel play. He missed Fraschiila's point--which F has repeated consistently in his commentary--that highlight-reel play won't garner gold.

So, what will? Well, maybe the US can play NBA ball and win, but Fraschilla doesn't think so, and we have more than a few hints that Colangelo and Krzyzewski don't think so either, though one could hardly tell this from the frequently abysmal performance today against a decent-but-not-superb Australia. The international game is just different, and strong teams seem to feature wonderful ball movement, abetted by sequential screens, multiple options leading either to back door or open 3s. And strong international teams seem, too, to feature not a "designated" 3-point shooter (Redd), but about 5 or 6 or 7 such fellows.

The good news: (1) D-Wade seems not only angry, but healthy, and has impressed me the most. (2) DWilliams also impresses getting to basket. (3) CPaul has been inconsistent, but at times he can absolutely get anywhere for a teardrop. (4) Kidd is certainly rested. (5) Bosh looks like he'll help. (6) Kobe, Lebron, and Melo are real good.

Bad news: (1) Howard can't shoot free throws, which might be disastrous. (2) US defense is inconsistent, alternately ferocious, leading to aforementioned thunder dunks, and atrocious, leading to back door layups or open 3s.

Fraschilla praised Doug Collins, who with Mike Breen will take over the announcing during Olympics. If Collins is as international-ball-saavy as Fraschilla, wonderful. Certainly Breen will be an improvement over Kamla, whose misplaced enthusiasm symbolizes precisely why the US might lose.

[studdlee10]

I've had the luxury of watching all of team USA's games. They've played some great competition on little rest on foreign soil. The Russians are defending Euro champs and Lithiuania is widely hailed as a top 5-type team. Russia's defense very well could be the toughest we face all summer, and yes, that includes Greece and Spain. They just don't have the same horses on O as Spain.

That said, playing Russia this early will do wonders for our team. They got to see first hand, pre-Olympics, a tough zone D. Will the staff make the necessary adjustments? That remains to be seen, but against Australia, the USA played way too much iso one on one for my liking. We found out against Russia that we have 2 legit zone breakers on our roster, Deron Williams and Michael Redd. From here on out, if somebody wants to play zone, Williams and Redd need to get in the game. Williams has impressed me and his size, speed, and shooting ability make him perfect in the international game.

Some of the old bugaboos about USA basketball started to creep in against Russia and Australia. The team had previously done a pretty good job on pick and rolls and defending back-cuts. For some reason against Australia, they just didnt' play with the same aplomb and intensity. They got back picked time and time again. This is something that needs to be addressed right away. The team also started to struggle from outside. Some of this I will chalk up to tired legs, since the team had been shooting lights out early on. You figure rested in the Olypics, they'll shoot somewhere in between the Aust/Russia games and the previous games.

Spain honestly doesn't scare me. They don't employ the same tactics as Greece and Argentina. As good as Calderon is, there is no way he's going to be able to keep Paul and Williams in front of him, and let's not forget how horrible Gasol is on D. Spain will not slow the game down, they are jsut a better matchup against USA.

We'll see in game 2. I hope the team is fired up to take Greece out.

[jipops]

Spain honestly doesn't scare me. They don't employ the same tactics as Greece and Argentina. As good as Calderon is, there is no way he's going to be able to keep Paul and Williams in front of him, and let's not forget how horrible Gasol is on D. Spain will not slow the game down, they are jsut a better matchup against USA.

We'll see in game 2. I hope the team is fired up to take Greece out.

This is some interesting analysis. Maybe the projected ratings were not worthy enough but I really do wish espn had picked up the friendlies for other games that didn't involve the US. I think one of the real crimes is that we don't get to watch these other teams play each other and see how they play. Oh well, maybe we'll start seeing more as more nba players join the euro leagues.

Hopefully nbc, or one of the other bazillion networks covering the olympics, will show us some games that do not involve the US.

[sagegrouse]

Hopefully nbc, or one of the other bazillion networks covering the olympics, will show us some games that do not involve the US.

I agree, as long as it isn't the gold medal game.

sagegrouse

[smittendevil]

Firstly, thank goodness we're rid of Rick Kamla. Wow he was bad.

Having watched most of all 5 games, here are some of my thoughts:

- My biggest worry is how we will do in the half court offense. I think that Fran's been spot on throughout the friendlies that we rely far too much on one-on-one play in the halfcourt. I'm a bit disappointed - given the amount of time the team has been "together" - that there hasn't been more focus on offensive halfcourt execution. You'd think that K could have worked in a few plays, e.g., that we ran for JJ to get some open 3s or something along those lines when the offense gets stagnant. And what about all those basketball minds on the bench anyway?! Hopefully this is just a case of them keeping a few tricks up their sleeves for the actual competition.

- I agree that the defense runs hot and cold. Obviously when they're keyed in, the defense is great, especially at pressuring the ballhandler and creating turnovers. Think about how many times we've seen a steal either by the primary defender or the help defender coming from the other side! But once the ballhandler gets beyond that initial pressure, the defense has been relatively poor at the basket and in rotation. PNR defense has been good at times but horrible at others. I still get the feeling that Team USA is content to outscore the other team.

- Perhaps not surprisingly (given Team USA's makeup as compared to our own team makeup), rebounding remains an issue. ESPN showed a stat at halftime during the Australia game that we were only outrebounding teams by +2. We're not the biggest of teams, but neither are our opponents. I know we're shooting a high percentage (thus fewer rebounds), but for some reason, just like when Duke plays, I find myself screaming at the TV to block out on the defensive end. I'd like to see us get more rebounds.


Random thoughts:

- Deron Williams should be the primary PG on this team, even if he's not starting. He's been the most consistent performer and as mentioned can bust the zone pretty easily, it seems. The guy can shoot, dish, and rebound, and I love his no-nonsense, heads-down attitude.

- I've also been thinking that Bosh works better in the middle than Howard. I watch the Raptors a ton, and Bost plays best from the high post, foul line extended, whether this is off the pick and pop (he's an excellent shooter), pick and roll, or individual move to the bucket (excellent first step). Running more plays for LBJ and Carmelo more in the post will create more mismatches, if you ask me, and a better shooter at the 5 will give them a bit more operating room. I actually think that Howard is the worst suited for this team. We need his rebounding, I agree, but we're not rebounding that great in any case.

[CameronCrazy'11]

Great analysis, some things to add:

-What's the deal with free throw shooting? I think in one game we shot better from the field than from the line for part of the game. C'mon guys

-Kobe needs to defer a little less

-Juke 'em out with ball rotation

-On offense we should take advantage of our edge in athleticism and depth by sprinting down the court and wearing down the defenses. However, I think there may have been an effort to purposely play the halfcourt game just for practice.

[smittendevil]

Hopefully nbc, or one of the other bazillion networks covering the olympics, will show us some games that do not involve the US.

FYI: A quick look on NBC's website seems to indicate that there will be coverage of non-US basketball games (e.g. Spain-Greece, Lithuania-Argentina shown on USA Network). Hopefully they show the games in their entirety, too.

PS. For some reason, I read "bazillion" as "Brazilian" the first time around ...

[Billy Dat]

...I am glad that people are excited about Team USA, I don't understand how American hoop heads aren't all entranced. We've got a great team to root for and they aren't guaranteed the crown. It's freakin' riveting! I guess people think that it's not a level playing field because of the FIBA rules, etc. so we are playing with a handicap and that's not fair and we're still the best and blah blah blah.

Anyway, onto more analysis and prognostication:

-The line has been drawn, the US is going to continue to play very non-FIBA esque pressure man to man defense and rely on turnovers leading to fast breaks for a chunk of offense. Rather then execute an intricate half court offense, it will do some NBA style isolation and mostly drive and kick to create shots. That is a philosophy that matches the NBA and K, and it is the single thing that is driving the nay sayers crazy. (tangent alert) I don't know what the nay sayers expect as a reasonable alternative? Should the US create a National Team made up of guys not good enough to earn huge paychecks in the NBA, or the rest of the world, that barnstorms the globe playing friendlies against pro teams, a team that runs the princeton offense and a "pack it in the lane" zone? That team's chances of winning the Olympics and World's would be much worse then the current team. We can't make up for the fact that these other players have been playing together since they were kids learning a system- there is nothing we can do about that. Now, as for the difference in systems, as Duke fans, I'll take pressure man-to-man and motion offense predicated on players making reads and plays over zone and the Princeton offense any day of the week.

-The prelim play has certainly demonstrated that we seem to play better with Bosh at the 5 and either Paul or Williams at the 1. Will K adjust the starting line-up? I don't think so. According to Chris Sheridan, K and Howard "got into it" it a little bit during the Russia game because Howard was goaded into throwing a cheap shot. If Howard is a little immature and potentially fragile, I don't think K takes the chance at losing him by moving him to the bench. As for Kidd, he'll start and just play the fewest minutes of the PGs.

-I don't think that our problem is so much that we pressure and gamble on defense in isolation. I think our problem is that we are too quick to double team far away from the basket and, when it looks like we've got a steal or defensive rebound but don't actually have it, we have 5 guys sprinting downcourt and getting out of defensive position leaving us vulnerable for man disadvantages (3 on 2, 2 on 1, etc).

-We still haven't adjusted to the more physical game on offense. Too often, our guys get in the lane and anticipate the whistle that never comes. We need to take it harder to the hole and crash the boards harder. Also, while they call a lot of charges, they don't call traveling and carrying like they do in the US. Our slashers need to take more advantage of that, especially because the guards can hand check so much more aggressively.

-Per the above, we need to play more physical defense, especially on the opposing guards. FIBA refs allow a lot more clutching and grabbing, especially on the pick and roll. That kid Mills from Australia was sailing into the lane on us time and time again...we should have been whacking him around.

-We do much better on offense when the ball moves, even if it just whips around the 3 point line. Eventually, it reaches a guard who can slash, slash and kick for a shot, or slash and pass. I really like when we operate with Lebron at the top of the key with 3 other guys around the arc and our 5 on the block. Often, when that ball moves and reaches Lebron, he throws that quick high/low to the post and we score or get fouled. Bottom line, that ball needs to move.

-Foul Shooting, it is amazing the similarities between Team USA and recent Duke squads. Enough said.

-Everyone in the primary 10 man rotation has had good games and quiet games. For my $, I want Lebron, Kobe, Williams/Paul, Bosh and Carmelo on the floor when push comes to shove.

[Duke4Ever32]

Am I correct in figuring out that the first Team USA game in the Olympics will be at 10:15am on the East Coast this Sunday morning?? Thanks.

[roywhite]

Good stuff, Billy. Count me among those very interested in watching this unfold.

One thing of interest has been the lessons that other international teams have drawn from games the USA has played so far. They clearly are looking for ways to slow down the USA break and transition game and work against American pressure defense. So far, some of these measures seem to work:

1. Substitutions after made foul shots and other out of bounds situations so the US is not able to rush down court. The Russian coach made good use of this tactic.
2. Fouling a player in open court (usually the ball handler) when the US has a break going, off a turnover for example. Apparently, FIBA is looking at changing these rules to make this an intentional foul more often, but under the current rules, it is an effective way to stop a fast break. Drives me nuts when watching, but it is working.
3. Extra passing on the offense, particularly when a double team comes; the US has not been good in sustaining defensive pressure in longer possessions, and opposing teams are able to get good shot opportunities.
4. Stripping and fouling our big men underneath when they have a chance for a dunk or a close shot. Dwight Howard, not a good foul shooter to start with, has been in a real slump from the line lately.
5. In general defensively, packing it in and choosing to defend drivers rather than 3-point shooters.

Does K have counter-measures for these tactics? Has he shown his hand completely? Is Jason Kidd relegated to 15 minutes or less in favor of Paul and Williams? Can the US develop a consistent half-court offense? Will we gamble as much on defense?

Let the Games begin!

[Billy Dat]

Good stuff, Billy. Count me among those very interested in watching this unfold.

One thing of interest has been the lessons that other international teams have drawn from games the USA has played so far. They clearly are looking for ways to slow down the USA break and transition game and work against American pressure defense. So far, some of these measures seem to work:

1. Substitutions after made foul shots and other out of bounds situations so the US is not able to rush down court. The Russian coach made good use of this tactic.
2. Fouling a player in open court (usually the ball handler) when the US has a break going, off a turnover for example. Apparently, FIBA is looking at changing these rules to make this an intentional foul more often, but under the current rules, it is an effective way to stop a fast break. Drives me nuts when watching, but it is working.
3. Extra passing on the offense, particularly when a double team comes; the US has not been good in sustaining defensive pressure in longer possessions, and opposing teams are able to get good shot opportunities.
4. Stripping and fouling our big men underneath when they have a chance for a dunk or a close shot. Dwight Howard, not a good foul shooter to start with, has been in a real slump from the line lately.
5. In general defensively, packing it in and choosing to defend drivers rather than 3-point shooters.

Does K have counter-measures for these tactics? Has he shown his hand completely? Is Jason Kidd relegated to 15 minutes or less in favor of Paul and Williams? Can the US develop a consistent half-court offense? Will we gamble as much on defense?

Let the Games begin!

Roy, you nailed the story of the Olympics. Team USA is going to do what it is going to do and see if anyone can stop it. I really feel that's how Team USA is approaching things. I am sure K and staff may add a wrinkle or two depending on the opponent, but we've established our game. Our main rivals, on the other hand, are going to play different defense, and sometimes offense, against us then they do against everyone else, especially point #5 you made above. Chris Sheridan claims that Spain, Argentina and Greece will play us straight up - I think that's BS. They will all slow the game down and try to limit our turnover/fast break opportunities. The fact that Greece put up over 100 points on us at the '06 Worlds was, to me, an anomaly. They played the game of their lives and still almost lost. The formula for having a chance against Team USA is precisely as you outlined it above. You asked, "Does K have counter-measures for these tactics?". One of the great unknowns is whether or not he, the other coaches, and the players, deep down, think that they have to. Or, is it more the traditional, "If we do what we do as well as we can do it, no one can beat us...so that's what we have to do...no plan B". I really don't know.

[BlueintheFace]

If Spain wins out before playing us I am almost 95% sure that they will throw the game by playing at 50%. this is what these European teams do...The real question though is whether or not the US is too proud to employ some of these same tactics. Is the US to proud to mail it in for tactical purposes. Exhibition is one thing, but from watching road to redemption and reading quotes from the players, it seems like everybody is looking to go 100% through out... heart and guts every minute. Is it possible that such pride and commitment to playing hard every second could be disadvantageous tactically?

In other words, if it would give the US a real advantage to throw a game in group play, do you think they would do it? Would K ever tell his team to?

[Bluedog]

If Spain wins out before playing us I am almost 95% sure that they will throw the game by playing at 50%. this is what these European teams do...The real question though is whether or not the US is too proud to employ some of these same tactics. Is the US to proud to mail it in for tactical purposes. Exhibition is one thing, but from watching road to redemption and reading quotes from the players, it seems like everybody is looking to go 100% through out... heart and guts every minute. Is it possible that such pride and commitment to playing hard every second could be disadvantageous tactically?

In other words, if it would give the US a real advantage to throw a game in group play, do you think they would do it? Would K ever tell his team to?

Maybe I'm being stupid, but what is the tactical advantage of losing another game in group play? Being seeded lower in the medal rounds, huh? I don't get it...Please enlighten me.

Last Olympics, the US did terribly in group play (3-2), earning the right to play Spain who was undefeated at the time. Are you suggesting the the US will again end up 3-2 after group play so Spain wouldn't want to play them or something?

[mgtr]

This was a pretty good thread, but now I am really confused. How is it possible to win by losing? I just can't imagine Coach K ever adopting this strategy, even if (perhaps by some twisted logic) it could work to his advantage.