Better team on paper: 2003-2004 Duke (final four) or next year's team?

[langdonfan]

03-04, with NO QUESTION. Maybe there is one CLOSE to CDuhon, but I don't think so... maybe Hendo and Singler will be there eventually, but I don't think they are there yet.

Uhm... you had me up until you said that. I agree, at first glance 03-04 is a better team on paper, and you are right on about Redick and Williams, but there are certainly players on this team on the level of Duhon. Duhon was a good starting point guard who I enjoyed watching, but he certainly wasn't a college star. Henderson and Singler could easily be two of the best players in the ACC next season. I'd compare Duhon's significance more to that of Scheyer or Paulus.

[Classof06]

I'll take sophomore Singler over freshman Deng seven days of the week.

Based off of what? The sophomore year Singler hasn't had yet? You should either compare their respective freshman seasons or what you project their sophomore seasons would've been/will be. In either scenario, I can't understand picking Singler over Deng. Deng had the better freshman season and any objective projection would justifiably predict Deng having a better sophomore season.

Last season, Singler averaged 13.3 and 5.8 on a decent team. In '04, Deng averaged 15.1 and 6.8 on a Final Four team with substantially more talent and experience. Where Deng got better as his freshman season progressed, Singler did the exact opposite. Duke has not gone past the Sweet 16 since Deng was here. Duke has not swept Carolina since Deng was here. For as great as Shelden and JJ are, they never got past the Sweet 16 without Deng.

Nobody on Duke's current roster has yet had a college season (statistically) like Luol's freshman year. Luol's 6.9 rebounds per game is a full 1.1 rebounds more than anyone on Duke's roster last season. Simply put, based off of his freshman year, I would take Luol Deng over any current Duke player coming into this season, period. Seven days a week and twice on Sunday .

[Ignatius07]

The comparison is not between Deng's and Singler's freshman years. It is between the expected value of Deng's freshman year versus the expected value of Singler's sophomore year.

And I would say Deng had a better freshman year than Singler, but not by a large margin.

[sagegrouse]

Based off of what? The sophomore year Singler hasn't had yet? You should either compare their respective freshman seasons or what you project their sophomore seasons would've been/will be. In either scenario, I can't understand picking Singler over Deng. Deng had the better freshman season and any objective projection would justifiably predict Deng having a better sophomore season.

.

Although I am losing interest in this exercise, the question was, if you had to choose between Luol Deng coming out of high school into his freshman year or Kyle Singler entering his sophomore year, whom would you pick? (I think you may have read the Q differently, but it was related to the broader Q: are the prospects for 2008-2009 as good as the prospects for 2003-2004 before the respective seasons start.)

Seems to me the answer is easy. Singler was an ACC star as a freshman and ROY. Deng looked to be a phenomenal talent but had never played a college game. Therefore, I said "Singler."

I guess, at the end of 2009 season we will have a basis for comparison.

sagegrouse

[Classof06]

Although I am losing interest in this exercise, the question was, if you had to choose between Luol Deng coming out of high school into his freshman year or Kyle Singler entering his sophomore year, whom would you pick? (I think you may have read the Q differently, but it was related to the broader Q: are the prospects for 2008-2009 as good as the prospects for 2003-2004 before the respective seasons start.)

Seems to me the answer is easy. Singler was an ACC star as a freshman and ROY. Deng looked to be a phenomenal talent but had never played a college game. Therefore, I said "Singler."

I guess, at the end of 2009 season we will have a basis for comparison.

sagegrouse

Thank you for clearing that up for me. In that case, I'm losing interest in this exercise too, haha. I would hope that the answer would be Singler.

[jimsumner]

"Duhon was a good starting point guard who I enjoyed watching, but he certainly wasn't a college star."

A lot of people in 2004 would have disagreed with this assessment. Duhon was second (behind Julius Hodge) in the voting for ACC POY and made all the All-America teams, usually on second team. Sounds like a star to me, at least for that one season.

[6th Man]

Duhon's stats didn't make him look like a star, but his impact on a game could not be seen through his stats. He was an excellent defender and had great quickness to get into the lane. He could be clutch also...Wake floater and UNC reverse come to mind. I think he was definitely a star and was a terrific PG. Not on the scale of Hurley or J-Will, but definitely a star player. Besides Hurley and J-Will are legends.

[Wander]

Based off of what? The sophomore year Singler hasn't had yet?

Yup, based only on my personal idea of how Singler will be in his sophomore year. Which is no worse than the 2nd best player in the conference, and no worse than say 10th best player in the country. Still, maybe seven days of the week was a little exaggeration... but no less than five and very likely six.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

Yup, based only on my personal idea of how Singler will be in his sophomore year. Which is no worse than the 2nd best player in the conference, and no worse than say 10th best player in the country. Still, maybe seven days of the week was a little exaggeration... but no less than five and very likely six.

Singler is a great player, but I don't think I've seen anything (not too much last year, and would have expected him to have a monster game or a monster review from his current summer league play) that would lead me to believe he is going to step up and be the man (top 10 players in the country). I think it helped Deng that we had Williams banging down low. Deng was extremely athletic and could blow by slower PF and finish with entusiastic dunks. Singler (last year) was usually the strongest player we had on the floor and had to play with his back to the basket a little too much. I don't know how much that is going to change this year. I'd like to see him be less content with being a role player.

It also seems like Ewing is being underestimated.

Daniel Ewing was one of the smoothest players Duke's had in a while. He was a different kind of player then Henderson completely. He allowed us to have 3 players that could handle the ball well that could all shoot the trey. His 3 was better and more consistent then Geralds - and he also had a much better handle. Gerald is a much better NBA prospect... but Mr. Ewing was a great college player and really allowed our system to work.

Without a powerfull post threat and a dominating PG,
I think its safe to say the 03-04 team had much better chemistry, had better game breakers (players that had a 6th gear they turned on more frequently, aka players that knew/ and would take over a game), and had a better idea of who they were compared to this years team.

This year I'm having a tough time projecting how our pieces are going to fit together as opposed to our 03-04 team.

[mo.st.dukie]

Singler is a great player, but I don't think I've seen anything (not too much last year, and would have expected him to have a monster game or a monster review from his current summer league play) that would lead me to believe he is going to step up and be the man (top 10 players in the country). I think it helped Deng that we had Williams banging down low. Deng was extremely athletic and could blow by slower PF and finish with entusiastic dunks. Singler (last year) was usually the strongest player we had on the floor and had to play with his back to the basket a little too much. I don't know how much that is going to change this year. I'd like to see him be less content with being a role player.

How did Singler not show much last year? He averaged 13 and 5, was ACC ROY, Maui MVP, put up a double-double in the Dean Dome against Hans. He certainly showed a lot of talent for a freshman, he's just a different type of player than Deng. As far as summer league play, that is hardly a good indicator of how a player will play during the college season. It highlights the more athletic, almost And1-type players and Singler's the type of player that shines in an organized team game.

Like I said, Singler and Deng are different players IMO. Singler is more cerebral and doesn't have the flashiness or athletic ability of Deng but is extrememly fundamental and understand the game so weill. He doesn't have Deng-like quickness but will out-smart an opponent and can get by defenders by using a jab step or head fake.

I do think Singler would benefit greatly if he had a bigger post player alongside him in the paint not another guy similar to him like LT. Hopefully Zoubek or one of Plumlee/Czyz can step and be that guy. I agree with your last statement that he will need to step out of being a role player and take on the role of being a star.

[roywhite]

It also seems like Ewing is being underestimated.

Daniel Ewing was one of the smoothest players Duke's had in a while. He was a different kind of player then Henderson completely. He allowed us to have 3 players that could handle the ball well that could all shoot the trey. His 3 was better and more consistent then Geralds - and he also had a much better handle. Gerald is a much better NBA prospect... but Mr. Ewing was a great college player and really allowed our system to work.

I liked Daniel and consider him to have been a good player, but I'm not sure he was a good ballhandler (if he were a really good ballhandler, he'd still be in the NBA). In 2003-04 Ewing had 69 assists and 64 turnovers; in the year previous to that, he had 45 assists and 67 turnovers. I recall some late game and pressure situations where Daniel looked unsteady handling the ball against good defense.

By comparison, last year Gerald 56 assists and 68 turnovers, playing the last part of the season with a broken wrist. I grant you that ball handling has not been Gerald's strongpoint, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have improved assist/turnover numbers in 2008-09.

Granted, this is merely a speculative summer diversion, but I believe the 2008-09 team has an excellent chance to make the Final Four.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

I liked Daniel and consider him to have been a good player, but I'm not sure he was a good ballhandler (if he were a really good ballhandler, he'd still be in the NBA). In 2003-04 Ewing had 69 assists and 64 turnovers; in the year previous to that, he had 45 assists and 67 turnovers. I recall some late game and pressure situations where Daniel looked unsteady handling the ball against good defense.

By comparison, last year Gerald 56 assists and 68 turnovers, playing the last part of the season with a broken wrist. I grant you that ball handling has not been Gerald's strongpoint, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have improved assist/turnover numbers in 2008-09.

Granted, this is merely a speculative summer diversion, but I believe the 2008-09 team has an excellent chance to make the Final Four.

He didn't have the best court vision in the world. He still was a decent handler with the ball and could penetrate.

Overall I think the 03-04 team had a better chance at making it than this years team.

[BD80]

The only "paper" where you can compare this squad to the 2003-4 is on rolling papers: you'd have to smoke something pretty strong to see the teams as comparable.

We are speaking with hindsight as to 2003-4 and with hopes for this year, but come on, get serious.

Shelden was a BEAST down low. We have no one to compare on low post defense or rebounding. I think Z will exceed most expectations and be "solid", but we have nothing to compare to Shelden's presence.

Luol was the third or fourth option on that team and still had stats comparable to Kyle who was a first option. Kyle is a true talent, but calling him even with Luol is a real complement and an expression of hope.

Our back court could certainly rise to the level of the 03-4 backcourt, but it will take a great year. I hope it happens. We will need to ratchet up the defense about 8 notches to compare. While Paulus will never be able to drive or defend like Duhon, I think he has as big a heart and can lead the team to the same level of success. Nolan, EMail, and G give us as much pure talent as we have had in the backcourt in years. Scheyer is much like Ewing was, able to fill whatever role Coach K asks him to fill and he makes plays.

Could this year's team be as good as the 03-4 team? Yep, and I'm rooting for it. Our chemistry should be great and there could be a giant improvement by several players (Z, Henderson, Smith) along with key contributions from freshmen. But right now, on paper - no way.

[DukieInBrasil]

hindsight vs. foresight is basically what this argument comes down to.
Duhon mos def gets the nod at the PG, whether it be Paulus or Smith or a Paulus/Smith hybrid combo thingy.
Shelden´s So. was solid, but there was very little depth behind him. There´s no reason to think that Z + 4 other post players can´t approximate very well the post play of ´04.
As great as JJ was as a Sr., and only slightly less so as a Jr., i would take Jr. Scheyer over So. JJ cuz a) So. JJ didn´t play much defense and b) So. JJ didn´t pass so much. Jon´s scoring could easily reach 16ppg, as JJ averaged as a So., if he decided to not play D and not pass the ball.
I´ll take Jr. Henderson over Jr. Ewing. Daniel was a fine player, but he never really approached the level that the Gerald found at times last year, with an injured wrist no less, of being able to totally dismantle the opposing D. He´s also got a nice knack for blocking shots.
I´ll take So. Singler over Fr. Deng, largely b/c part of what made Deng so special on that team, was that he could do what no one else on the team could do, get to the rim and finish, and this will be replicated on the ´09 team and in spades. Their Fr. numbers were pretty close, slight edge to Deng. Singler will do for the ´09 team what nobody else can offer, play both inside and outside, and will prob´ly end up with better stats than Deng. It´s almost better to compare So. Singler to So. Shelden in terms of post playeriness.
The bench is undoubtedly better for the ´09 squad, with quality players at the guard spots and many (at the very least) warm bodies for the post. Our reserve post players bring 6 years of experience (+ 2 Fr.) to the table compared to 4 years of experience for the ´04 quad and no Fr. reserves.
All in all, i vote for ´09.

[mgtr]

I think there are two keys for the 09 team: One, our players have to have all improved to some extent from last year, and two, Singler doesn't have to play the post. If he can play at PF, he will be outstanding, probably the #2 player in the ACC --and, he is less likely to run out of gas come tournament time. Unstated, I expect great performances from Henderson, Paulus, Scheyer, and Smith.
So, if the stars are aligned properly, and we all hold our mouths just so, we will live up to the stellar reputation of Duke basketball.
Is it October yet?

[houstondukie]

Bluedog, I'd take the 03-04 team over the 05-06 team and the main reason is because of Luol Deng who was a HUGE difference maker. On the 03-04 team you had several capable scorers whereas on the 05-06 team we were just way too reliant on JJ and Shel.

jimsumner makes an excellent point as to why it's impossible to compare the two teams (because performance for the 03-04 team is known whereas the future is uncertain for our current team). But if you HAD to compare...come on, can anyone with a straight face say you'd take Scheyer as he is now instead of JJ, one of the all-time great scorers in college basketball??

We're talking about JJ Redick, the sophomore.

I'll take Jon Scheyer, as a junior to be a better player than JJ was his sophomore year.

The same argument can be used in the Deng (freshmen) vs. Singler (sophomore, ACC FOY) comparison. Singler and Deng were both very impressive in the freshmen years, but even if you think Deng was a better player his freshmen year, don't you think next year's Kyle Singler will be better that Luol Deng the freshmen? Advantage Singler, in my opinion, and it's not even close if you expect Singler to really break-out next year.

Henderson vs. Ewing is not even close. Most of us are expecting Henderson to explode next year. Ewing never had that hype.

Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams could start on most top-25 teams. Can't say the same about Sean Dockery or Lee Melchionni in their sophomore years.

I agree, however, that Duhon gets the edge over Paulus, and Shelden/Shavlik get the edge over Lance/Zoubek/&company.

[Kishiznit]

PG: Duhon- I would say Chris was just about better in every aspect in the game except for shooting.

SG: Scheyer- I know Redick was a great scorer, but IMO Scheyer is a better player overall.

SF: Henderson- Ewing was good but Henderson is already better and possibly on his way to great.

PF: Deng- I think Singler has a chance to be just as good at the college level if not better, but I would still take Deng. Ask me in about 7 months and I more then likely will choose Singler. They both have special written all over them!

C: Williams- Thomas isn't in the same league.

Bench: Current Duke team. Smith and McClure are proven ACC players. Elliot Williams has a chance to be special. The two big FR have a chance to contribute more then Horvath. Pocious has proved he has alot of offensive skill. I BELIEVE Zoubek has a chance to contribute more then Randolph.

Just cuz I see them being better on Paper, Doesn't mean they will perform better. I would be happy if they reached the Final Four.

PG - agree with you
SG- scheyer is a better defender today than JJ was at this time but JJ was THE best SG overall compared to JS. Better passer and stronger legs for his shot...NO COMPARISON
SF - agree with you
PF - Deng, no doubt about it...strong frosh campaign
C- agree with you

Bench - no doubt, today's team

[ice-9]

houstondukie, here's another way of looking at it: if you were building a team over the next four years, who would you take?

Sophomore Redick, who you know FOR SURE is destined to be the all-time points leader in the ACC (until Hansblah at least)

OR

Junior Scheyer, who MAY improve, MAY stay the same or MAY actually regress (we don't know)

Come on. To me the answer is obvious. Scheyer may end up better than Redick, but that's a big assumption you're taking. (Putting aside that this is one useless academic exercise...but that's what bball fans do in the summer).

That's like saying which stock would you rather take (knowing what you know now): Google before they launched AdWords, or Cuil, who claims they have 3x Google's number of pages indexed but whose future is uncertain. I'd take Google any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

[CameronCrazy'11]

houstondukie, here's another way of looking at it: if you were building a team over the next four years, who would you take?

Sophomore Redick, who you know FOR SURE is destined to be the all-time points leader in the ACC (until Hansblah at least)

OR

Junior Scheyer, who MAY improve, MAY stay the same or MAY actually regress (we don't know)

Come on. To me the answer is obvious. Scheyer may end up better than Redick, but that's a big assumption you're taking. (Putting aside that this is one useless academic exercise...but that's what bball fans do in the summer).

That's like saying which stock would you rather take (knowing what you know now): Google before they launched AdWords, or Cuil, who claims they have 3x Google's number of pages indexed but whose future is uncertain. I'd take Google any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

You're missing the point. The question isn't who is going to be the better player eventually. The question is who is better between Sophomore Redick and Junior Scheyer. The fact that Sophomore Redick will become an all-time great in his Junior and Senior years is 100% irrelevant here.

[ice-9]

Ah, I see that I was answering a different question/proposition. In my mind I thought the debate was, "Who would you rather have?" and that meant projecting out several years.

But it's really "Who would you rather have for ONE SEASON," and in that case then sure, I can see how some might pick Junior Scheyer over Sophomore Redick.