You may hope for it, but I wouldn't expect it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kishiznit
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You may hope for it, but I wouldn't expect it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kishiznit
Cook
Curry
Gbinije
Kelly
Mason Plumlee (if he returns)
I think Mike provides a better blend of talent and complements Ryan and Mason very well. He could help on the boards and be a good defender. He won't require a whole lot of plays to be run for him, very low maintenance.
Thornton
Sulaimon (could get more minutes than Tyler if he's ready because I think he's a true combo guard, but I could also see him slipping behind Dre if he's not ready)
Murphy (6th man, could get starters minutes while playing a lot at the 4)
Dawkins
Hairston
Marshall Plumlee
K while a great coach is not infallible - just check out this year for his inability to improve the team over the year. Sure it's not entirely on him, it's also on the team, but as coach he ultimately bears full responsibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kishiznit
Who are our 2 legit PGs? Quinn is one.
By the start of conference play (and assuming Mason stays):
Quinn
Seth (Sr.)
Andre (Sr.)
Ryan (Sr.)
Mason (Sr.)
The seniors will start. There will be a lot of minutes for the rest, but the seniors will run this team.
I read the name of the thread too quickly, and then was ashamed that I posted so early.
Seriously, that's never happened before.
Oh, and the idea of picking starters this early is almost as silly as my post above.
The best players will start (see Greg Paulus). Tyler, Seth, and Andre have much more experience, but they will face extremely strong challenges for the starting PG, SG, SF spots from Quinn, Rasheed, Alex, and Mike. I wouldn't pencil anyone in yet as starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSchool
However, I do think our highest-ceiling lineup has Quinn, Rasheed, and Mike/Alex starting, with Tyler/Seth subbing for Quinn and Rasheed, and Andre coming in for shooting. Mason (hopefully) and Ryan will man the post with backups in Marshall, Josh, and Alex.
I think, other than MP2 returning, the single most crucial decision that will be made is "who is our point guard?". There's an old saying in football - "if you have 2 QB's, you really have none" and I think the same applies to basketball. Until either Thornton or Cook firmly take control of this team as the unquestioned starter, we will continue to be good, but not great.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
Thornton's a nice vocal leader, but can't pass and can't shoot and can't drive - so I think that could be a problem perhaps.
Cook's deficiencies are clearly on defense and we havn't seen him enough on the court yet to know just how good of a leader he may/may not be. Cook seems to have above average handle and passing skills but his shot seemed streaky this year.
We can find a parallel maybe from UNC's 2011 season when the Heels struggled with both LDrewII and Marshall battling for the PG role, but when LDII left, Marshall blossomed because the decision was made going forward.
In 2013, Coach K MUST choose and settle rather quickly on who will be the starter at PG and stick with it before this team will develop into a great team.
I agree. I expect the seniors to be the best players.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
I think the team will be very good, but how good they can be will depend on:
1. Quinn. Health, poise, maturity, decision-making.
2. Andre. He puts it all together as a senior.
3. How much of an impact the younger players can make, Rasheed, Alex, MP3, Mike, etc.
The team could end up going very deep in terms of the rotation.
The two bolded statements don't seem to jive. Outside of Ryan and Mason, I don't see our seniors being our best players. Sure it'd be great if Andre learns how to dribble and play defense, but after 3 years, I'm not holding my breath. Same with Seth, the guy is a 5th year senior, and expecting him to make a jump to versatile SG doesn't seem likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSchool
I'd say Quinn, Alex, and Mike are much more likely to make the big freshman-sophomore jump and be more important contributors at the PG/SG/SF positions.
He doesn't have to "learn how to dribble and play defense." On offense, Andre needs to work constantly to get open, shoot with confidence, and the team has to get him the ball. In the 9 games this year when Andre shot 10 or more times, he averaged 18.3 ppg (on 12 shots pg). You don't think if he does that consistently he'll start, even without a dribble-drive game? On defense, he needs to keep his focus for 40 minutes. His defensive errors seem to mostly be errors of concentration loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
What does "make a jump to versatile SG" even mean? Seth was our 2nd leading scorer, led our team in assists and steals, shot 38% from 3-point, 87% from the FT line, and his offensive rating is in the top ten of returning ACC players. He made an All-ACC team. With those numbers and achievements, why would he have to make a "jump"?Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
EDIT: Of returning ACC players, Seth is either the 4th or 5th leading votegetter from this year's All ACC voting (depending on whether Leslie goes pro or not). It is comical that people think he's going to ride the bench this coming season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kedsy
No he definitely needs to learn to dribble, he's a 6'4 SG!!!...Having Andre on the court gives us a non ballhandler at one of the perimeter spots which hurts the offense IMO, when he's on its a beauty to watch but im definitely not comfortable with our offense being "get Dre the ball and watch him jack it up open or not" The big thing for me w/ Dre is that with other players if they're jumper isn't falling what do you do? Go to the cup, get easy buckets. That opens up things for you, gets your game going...Dre can't do that, he's totally one dimensional. He's either hitting or he's not.
Focus is a part of the defensive lapses for Andre but what about the slow footed-ness, the lack of lateral quickness?!? Those seem to be a much bigger problem, they have to factor in somewhere, he honestly has a hard time keeping up with guys focused or not.
Quote:
What does "make a jump to versatile SG" even mean? Seth was our 2nd leading scorer, led our team in assists and steals, shot 38% from 3-point, 87% from the FT line, and his offensive rating is in the top ten of returning ACC players. He made an All-ACC team. With those numbers and achievements, why would he have to make a "jump"?
EDIT: Of returning ACC players, Seth is either the 4th or 5th leading votegetter from this year's All ACC voting (depending on whether Leslie goes pro or not). It is comical that people think he's going to ride the bench this coming season.
Nolan did not start and got very little playing time his freshmen year so I doubt Rasheed does as well baring injury or a big funk from Andre.Quote:
Originally Posted by slower
If we gain nobody and keep Mason:
Tyler- Quinn
Seth- Andre
Alex-Andre
Ryan- Alex
Mason- Ryan
Spot minutes- Gbiniji, Marshall, Rasheed
Later in the year (same scenario):
Quinn- Tyler
Seth- Andre/Rasheed
Alex- Andre
Ryan- Alex
Mason- Ryan
If Andre gets in a funk I do not think he loses his spot but does give up more mins.
I agree completely. Better questions might include: Who will not start at least 2 games next year? Who do you expect to start more than 20 games next year? How many games do you expect (insert player) to start next year. I expect there will be many starting line-ups next year, much like this year and hopefully the staff finds the most effective line-up (both starting and off the bench) by the end of the year and everyone stays healthy. Like this year, it should be a very interesting year trying to find the best combinations and styles of play.Quote:
Originally Posted by ncexnyc
Great, so he shot well in 9 games. What happened in the other 25? You're cherry-picking his good games and expecting him to play like that every game? Exhibit A on why that's foolish: the last 3 seasons of the PlumBros. That's like saying Quinn had 17 assists in 2 games, so he must have better court vision and passing skills than Kendall Marshall. So yes, Andre needs to learn how to dribble. As a 6-4 guard, he has to at least be a threat to drive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kedsy
I would say "learning to play defense" involves focus and concentration. As well as not getting beat off the dribble and lateral quickness. So yes, Andre needs to learn how to play defense. And no, I don't think Andre will start without big jumps in his ball-handling ability and defense. As a rising senior, I'm not expecting that from him.
I notice you conveniently left out Seth's 42% FG%. Yes he also led our team with a whopping 2.4 assists/game on one of the worst passing teams in K's tenure (recent Chronicle article). And aren't we always talking about how steals are overrated? Don't forget Greg Paulus was 3rd team All-ACC too. At a small 6-2 with slight build and average athleticism, he struggles to guard and dribble against larger more athletic players especially when guarded closely and is largely a spot-up/jump-shooter. Great shooter, okay passer, okay driver, okay defender. Seth is like a shorter and slightly more versatile Andre with a slightly worse shot. Seth is also a 5th year senior, so I'm not sure how much room he has left to improve.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kedsy
That said, he's a very good player and has certainly contributed a large share of great Duke memories in the last 2 years. No one here is saying Seth will ride the bench, he will of course get significant minutes and deserve them. However, I'm hoping that we will have a more capable option at SG than Seth by mid-season.
Hopefully Rasheed or some transfer/recruit will be able to pick up the system to start at SG by then. If not, hopefully a more versatile player will have developed to take Andre's place at SF, maybe one of Mike/Alex/Shabazz. Starting both Seth and Andre at the SG/SF does not bode well for the team - two players who are defensive liabilities, mostly spot-up shooters, and weak ball-handlers in the backcourt at the same time.
Nolan Smith was the first guard off the bench and averaged 15 mpg as a freshman. That's more than "very little playing time." And Sulaimon is, in my opinion, further along than Smith was coming out of high school. I'd expect more along the lines of sophomore year Nolan Smith than freshman year Nolan Smith (and with better 3pt shooting).Quote:
Originally Posted by JNort
Wow. From this thread, you would think Seth is a player who is completely handicapped by his many, many limitations. No way he earns one of next year's five starting spots. Not a chance.
Which is hilarious, seeing as he is one of the five best returning players in the ENTIRE CONFERENCE.
... this offseason is gonna be fun. :)
Don't underestimate the importance of the sixth man in your lineup.Quote:
Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred
Good senario is that Murphy becomes a dominate player, our current one man recruiting class expands to two, three or four, and we increase our athleticism enormously. I hope this is not just wishful thinking.
I started this post based on what I know to be the roster for next year at that moment. Mason has not declared and we have no transfers or any more freshman signed at the moment I did it. I think in general alot of you agree. The major point of contention is if Seth will start or be replaced by Rasheed. With all due respect to those of you who think the latter to be true, I just do not see it that way. Yes if Sulaimon does find himself starting from the opening tip off that could mean great things for us. If he is that good and ready to go from the start. However I do not expect it. I do not understand why so many have decided out there that a freshman who has not played a second nor even practiced with the team is certainly going to replace Seth. I think is short sided and a little disrespectful as well. Seth has done alot for the team and been a solid if not at times, though they may have been not as many as we would llike, great player for Duke. With his ability and experience I am very confident he will be a starter at the beginning of next season.
As CDu pointed out, Nolan played 15 minutes a game his freshman year. He played double-digit minutes all the way through the NCAAT. He was also rated 19th in RSCI, and the final RSCI isn't out yet, but it sounds like Rasheed will be borderline top ten, which is a bigger difference than it sounds. Rasheed should be a big contributor in 2012-13. Whether he starts or not is more murky, but he could easily be our 6th man.Quote:
Originally Posted by JNort
You're missing my point. I didn't cherry pick games in which he shot well. I cherry-picked games in which he got a lot of shots. If you don't understand the difference, then there's no point discussing it, but assuming you do understand, my point is that Andre can be a big part of our offense without the ability to drive, so long as he works hard to get open and his teammates give him the ball when he gets open.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
And, yes, if Andre gets 10 to 12 shots most games I'd expect 15 to 18 ppg from him next season. If he gets 3 to 5 shots most games I'd expect about the same as we saw this season.
I disagree. You can already know how to do something and not do it well if you don't focus on it. That's different from learning.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
He took half his shots from three-point range; in that scenario, 42% overall is about normal for a guard.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms
Your original statement was he's not "versatile" and doesn't deserve to start. I'm not sure how any of the above supports that.Quote:
Originally Posted by duke09hms