i love JWill, his tweet doesn't tell us anything more substantive the H-S piece from yesterday
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Sounds that way. And I also agree with those that interpret Austin's tweets as him going pro as opposed to staying. If both guys are gone, next year looks to be much more of a rebuilding process than I had hoped for. Only snagging Bazz would change that at this point.
I think the difference is that the articles yesterday were more along the lines of "Mason is gathering his information to see if he should declare for the draft" versus "Mason is declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent yet." It's not much different, but he's in the draft. Nolan and Kyle both did their research after 2010 without entering.
True, but both (if true) would seem to suggest that he's probably going. To my knowledge we haven't had anyone test the waters and then return. Coach K has pretty good NBA ties and provides it to the players. So when a Duke player decides to "test the waters" that usually means they're going.
Unless we're able to add a couple of McDonald's All-Americans and/or some of the current players really step up.
Certainly if we see the same performances as this year minus Mason and Rivers, it'll be a rebuilding year (though still a sure-fire tournament team, of course). But I'd expect big jumps from guys like Gbinije, Cook, Murphy, and Marshall, and continued improvements from the veterans. And I'd hope for Sulaimon to be an impact player as his top-15 recruit status would suggest.
And maybe we'll get lucky in landing 1 or 2 of the recruits we're in the market for at this point.
...but I haven't seen the "Mason Plumlee is entering his name in the draft but not hiring an agent" tweet/article/ etc.
Link to that anyone?
I'm not arguing that that's not eventually what will be happening. But "testing the waters" is both a general comment on what a player is doing (gathering info, etc) and a very specific set of facts re: a player (declares for the draft w/o an agent). I'm not sure which one it is right now.
Do you think that Williams would tweet something like that if it weren't accurate? He's got pretty decent ties to Duke, after all. Given his desire to be objective and professional in the business, you think he'd want to be really careful not to say something inaccurate about his own school.
You are correct in that we haven't seen more than "testing the waters." The speculation is based on the concept that Duke players don't really test the waters. They either declare and stay in the draft or they don't declare at all. Guys who have tested the waters in the past have always gone (Dunleavy, Deng, Henderson), and guys who weren't going to go didn't test the waters. To clarify: testing the waters typically means declaring and getting feedback directly from teams (which you can't do without declaring).
Might not Mason's decision depend on what Austin does?
With Kelly, an untried Marshall and Josh as our bigs, Dawkins, Michael and Alex potential small forwards and Quinn, Tyler, Seth and Sulaimon at the guard positions, why do you think that consitutes a sure fire tournament team?
There are a number of ACC teams that gave us issues last year and I see the team as currently constituted, with Austin and Mason both gone, as weaker than last years team. Others getting stronger while we rebuild, that certainly raises the question of us getting into the tournament.
It's never happened before that someone tested the waters and came back, but that doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Before Brand, Maggette, and Avery left nobody had ever left early from Duke, so fans assumed they would stay. I agree that it's likely Mason and Austin will remain in the draft, especially with the shortened window to withdraw, but I'll still hold out a glimmer of hope until the deadline passes or they hire agents.
If what Jason Williams is reporting is consistent with the article in the H-S, then it is EXACTLY what Kyle Singler did after the National Championship. I'm being pedantic, but there are no reports that Mason has entered his name in the draft and not hired an agent (that is not was Jason Williams tweeted).
My point is that until I see it confirmed by another source, JWill's tweet appears to me to refer to "testing the waters" as the generic term for seeking information about his stock in the NBA, not the specific "Testing the waters" period."
At Duke, the point of no return for entering the draft has been putting your name in, not hiring an agent. All i'm saying is that that has not yet been reported.
The team you're describing has seven guys who were top 30 recruits plus a 3rd team all-conference player and a 7-footer. Including three seniors and two juniors. They may struggle at times and they may not get a #1 or #2 seed, but that's a sure fire tournament team.
I agree that on paper we are weaker next year without Austin and Mason. But I am not sure it is much weaker. Sulaimon is going to be very good. Other players step into bigger roles. Hopefully Murphy and Gbinije give us more flexibility at 3/4. Post presence will be a big issue. We aren't going to be one of the top 10-15 teams most likely to win it all but we will be a sure-fire tourney team
Additionally, if Barnes and Henson leave with Zeller (and possibly Marshall) UNC is rebuilding too. FSU is rebuilding too (MUCH more so than we will be). NCST (if Leslie stays) could be the favorite to win the ACC.