The RACE to the CHASE

NASCAR is heating up. The top 12 drivers are:

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RANK DRIVER POINTS
1 Jeff Gordon 3076
2 Denny Hamlin 2705
3 Matt Kenseth 2699
4 Jeff Burton 2633
5 Tony Stewart 2599
6 Carl Edwards 2582
7 Kevin Harvick 2488
8 Kyle Busch 2479
9 Jimmie Johnson 2469
10 Clint Bowyer 2405
11 Martin Truex Jr. 2335
12 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2217

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The group with a chance, albeit slim, of slipping into the top 12 are:

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RANK DRIVER POINTS
13 Kurt Busch 2204
14 Ryan Newman 2158
15 Jamie McMurray 2104
16 Greg Biffle 2089
17 Mark Martin 2045
18 Juan Montoya 2017

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I figure 1-8 are safe. i would say 1-9 but Jimmy dropped 2 spots last week.

Any predictions as to who makes the chase? Is the top 12 set of could we see some movement?

I'm for anybody but a Busch. Am so glad Jr. and Kyle won't be teammates next year. Course if Kyle wins the Chase in 2008 I may just have to, oh I don't know, do something harmful to myself. (kidding) But that is how much I can't stand Kyle or his bro.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Stewart finishes near the top this year if not on top. He is running well and I think his win at Indy may have given him a huge boost, we'll see.

Gordon definitely has the potential to take it all this year, but I'm not sure he will, especially if Stewart goes on a roll. Gordon hasn't won since he became a father and am wondering if he is driving a little more conservative now that his daughter has arrived. I did predict at the beginning of the season we would see a change in his racing after her birth.

And of course there are my two favorites, Jr. and Jeff Burton, both of whom I think will be in the Race for the Chase - though Jr. by the skin on his chinny chin chin, i.e. he'll barely make it. I'd really like to see Jeff Burton take it all this year, partly because he's such a gentleman and partly because he's a Duke fan. :)

Of the 13-18 drives you noted, I really don't see any of them making it to the Race for the Chase. Well perhaps Ryan Newman. Though definitely not Montoya. Haven't really been impressed with him even though he's won a race.

How bout that analysis for a Harvard gal? ;)

I don't really follow NASCAR (though I did watch part of the race at Sears Point on tv) but I'm supposed to root for Greg Biffle. Doesn't look too good though.

I'm not a huge NASCAR fan, but NASCAR on HDTV is transfixing. I don't plan on watching races, but if one is on, my channel won't change until it's over.

What's the deal with the Busch brothers? I have another friend who dislikes them (one more than the other).

I think I like Kevin Harvick the best. He seems a little crazy, which is a necessary quality in a racecar driver as far as I'm concerned. But what do I know?

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Originally Posted by TillyGalore

How bout that analysis for a Harvard gal? ;)

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Very impressive!

the finish at the Pennsylvania 500 for the top 15:

Finish Driver
1 Kurt Busch
2 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
3 Denny Hamlin
4 Jeff Gordon
5 Jimmie Johnson
6 Tony Stewart
7 Ryan Newman
8 Clint Bowyer
9 Mark Martin
10 Casey Mears
11 Jeff Burton
12 Kyle Busch
13 Ricky Rudd
14 Matt Kenseth
15 Tony Raines

it was good to see Ricky Rudd and Yates back in the top 15, They are both such class acts and deserve a lot more success than they have had lately.

Not a great day for Ford with only 2 in the top 15. Makes you wonder what has happened to them over this year.

According to NASCAR's Chase Line today's race moves Jr out and puts Kurt in. Kurt is starting to move, we may see him move up a bit, although I don't see him getting any higher than 10.

Rank +/- Name Behind
-- Clint Bowyer - 684
-- Martin Truex Jr. 802
+1 Kurt Busch - 837
-1 Dale Earnhardt Jr.- 844
-- Ryan Newman - 927

What fallout will Robby Gordon get from his actions at the Bush race on Saturday? He was parked for the Nextel Cup event, but will further action be taken, or should it. Should he have been parked for this race or should they have waited for the next Bush race since it happened at a Bush race?

Eeewwww, a Busch won the race.

A friend of mine was telling me that if Gordon finished in the top 5 in this past race, and won this Sunday, statistically speaking he would have wrapped up the cup and all other races would be for second, third, etc. Or in the words of Ricky Bobby, 1st loser, 2nd loser, etc.

If that is the case - then I amend my earlier post about who I think will with the Cup and now note that Tony Stewart will be spoiler to perhaps his own teammate Denny Hamlin.

Next year will be very interesting to watch with Stewart and the younger Busch. Let's not forget it was the older Busch brother who darn near killed one of Stewart's crew members on pit road. I think Stewart will significantly help Ky Busch improve his racing, but I think Stewart's penchant for inserting his foot into his mouth will give Busch permission if you will to continue his own streak of foot in mouth disease. And truly become the next bad boy of racing, much like Stewart.

Something else that will be interesting to watch next year will be the Gordon/Earnhardt/Johnson relationships. Gordon feels a certain amount of responsibility to mentor Jr. ever since Sr. died. Gordo had a very strong relationship with Sr. thus wants to help Jr. Gordo is part owner of Johnson's car thus is also a mentor to Johnson. Someone's ego is bound to be effected with these three drivers in the same garage. Not going to make any predictions about next year as we don't know who will be Crew Chief for Jr and naturally that relationship will take time to foster and grow. Johnson and Knaus did not get along when they first started working together.

I've believed for a long time that analysists don't always take human emotion into account when discussing sports. Case in point (and a little off topic) in the 2002 World Series an Angel player hit the ball down the 3rd base line that everyone was waiting to see if it went foul, which it did. The guy I was dating at the time said the Series was determined at that moment and the Giants would win. I agreed it would be a defining moment, but the Angels could take that moment and inspire themselves to win. Which they did. Should have known then the relationship wouldn't work. But I digress.

While Gordo may already be this years champ, there is a lot of good racing to come in the weeks ahead. And with all the changes going on in terms of who will be driving for whom next year, I think next year will be so much fun to watch.

P.S. If you had told me a year ago I would write a post analyzing the NASCAR Nextel Cup series I would have told you to check your meds, and perhaps get your money back.:)

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Originally Posted by TillyGalore

A friend of mine was telling me that if Gordon finished in the top 5 in this past race, and won this Sunday, statistically speaking he would have wrapped up the cup and all other races would be for second, third, etc. Or in the words of Ricky Bobby, 1st loser, 2nd loser, etc.

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Not true under this year's chase format. From nascar.com:

"All 12 drivers will have their point totals re-set to 5,000; each will then receive a 10-point bonus for each race victory they had during the first 26 races."

If the Chase were to begin today, that puts Gordon and Johnson in a tie for 1st with 5,040 points (5,000 plus the 4 wins at 10 points each). Stewart would be 3rd with 5,020 (2 wins). The next 8 drivers would have 5,010 (1 win). Number 12 would be Clint Bowyer (currently 10th in pints, but has 0 wins).

Gordon's current seemingly insurmountable 366 point over Hamlin would dissolve instantly, making the last 10 races much more meaningful.

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Originally Posted by PensDevil

Not true under this year's chase format. From nascar.com:

"All 12 drivers will have their point totals re-set to 5,000; each will then receive a 10-point bonus for each race victory they had during the first 26 races."

If the Chase were to begin today, that puts Gordon and Johnson in a tie for 1st with 5,040 points (5,000 plus the 4 wins at 10 points each). Stewart would be 3rd with 5,020 (2 wins). The next 8 drivers would have 5,010 (1 win). Number 12 would be Clint Bowyer (currently 10th in pints, but has 0 wins).

Gordon's current seemingly insurmountable 366 point over Hamlin would dissolve instantly, making the last 10 races much more meaningful.

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I like this scenario a whole lot better than the one told me. My friends source was ESPN. Based on another thread going about ESPN, not sure if they are the most reliable source.

Thanks for the clarification!!

Now I don't know who will win the cup. It may not be Gordo.

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Originally Posted by TillyGalore

A friend of mine was telling me that if Gordon finished in the top 5 in this past race, and won this Sunday, statistically speaking he would have wrapped up the cup and all other races would be for second, third, etc. Or in the words of Ricky Bobby, 1st loser, 2nd loser, etc.

While Gordo may already be this years champ, there is a lot of good racing to come in the weeks ahead. And with all the changes going on in terms of who will be driving for whom next year, I think next year will be so much fun to watch.

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Your friend is partly correct. Like PensDevil said the top 12 will vie for the cup, all Gorden can win is the top spot in the chase.

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Next year will be very interesting to watch with Stewart and the younger Busch

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I had the exact same thought myself. Two "bad boys" on one team. I hope Joe Gibbs knows what he is doing.

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Something else that will be interesting to watch next year will be the Gordon/Earnhardt/Johnson relationships.

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I cannot see that working. When Mile Waldrup left DEI Jr. insisted that the get a younger driver so he'll be the older. he is accustomed to being the top dog. Well now he is coming ion really tied for third in Hendrick. Casey Mears is not going to sit back and accept being moved to 4th, Gorden ins 4 time champ so he will expect his "top dog" status, and Jimmy has one championship so he won't take a back seat to someone without any. Looks like a ego train to nowhere.

i will predict that if Jr. does not make the chase then next year it will be the top 15 drivers. They will keep expanding the numbers until they can include him.

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Originally Posted by PensDevil

If the Chase were to begin today, that puts Gordon and Johnson in a tie for 1st with 5,040 points (5,000 plus the 4 wins at 10 points each). Stewart would be 3rd with 5,020 (2 wins). The next 8 drivers would have 5,010 (1 win). Number 12 would be Clint Bowyer (currently 10th in pints, but has 0 wins).

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Actually it would not. According to NASCAR the point standings are

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RANK DRIVER POINTS BEHIND
1 Jeff Gordon 3236 Leader
2 Denny Hamlin 2870 -366
3 Matt Kenseth 2825 -411
4 Jeff Burton 2763 -473
5 Tony Stewart 2749 -487
6 Carl Edwards 2682 -554
7 Jimmie Johnson 2624 -612
8 Kyle Busch 2611 -625
9 Kevin Harvick 2600 -636
10 Clint Bowyer 2552 -684
11 Martin Truex Jr. 2437 -799
12 Kurt Busch 2399 -837

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Jimmy has dropped to 7th.

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Originally Posted by Bluedawg

Actually it would not. According to NASCAR the point standings are



Jimmy has dropped to 7th.

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Correct. But the Chase has a new format this year. Basically the top 12 make the Chase, and are seeded based on the number of wins up until that point. The Chase Explained from the Nascar 101 section of nascar.com.

Today he spun out while leading, fell back to 19th, and still came back to be in a position to win the race. Granted, it took some driver errors from Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards but still he put himself in a position to win.

Then we almost had an old fashioned driver's brawl on the track. Todays race had it all. Jr, blew up and the top 15 gets tighter. More on the standings later.

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RANK DRIVER POINTS BEHIND
1 Jeff Gordon 3384 Leader
2 Denny Hamlin 3040 -344
3 Matt Kenseth 2952 -432
4 Tony Stewart 2939 -445
5 Carl Edwards 2824 -560
6 Jeff Burton 2806 -578
7 Jimmie Johnson 2789 -595
8 Kyle Busch 2757 -627
9 Clint Bowyer 2667 -717
10 Kevin Harvick 2655 -729
11 Martin Truex Jr. 2587 -797
12 Kurt Busch 2529 -855

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the next 5:

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RANK DRIVER POINTS BEHIND
13 Ryan Newman 2433 -951
14 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2429 -955
15 Greg Biffle 2317 -1067
16 Casey Mears 2231 -1153
17 Jamie McMurray 2213 -1171

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Kurt not only moves into the chase but Jr. drops 2 spots. Jamie is probably a long hot, but the last shot to get in being 316 points back. I'd guess Greg at 212 is the cutoff for possible contenders...but who knows. One or two DNFs by key drivers and the chase may be turned upside down.