Can we still get a #1 seed?
If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.
So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?
We would have to win and need help
We would have to win the ACC tourney, and convincingly, including a win over UNC in the finals. If we don't play them in the championship game, then it won't help us much. Also Tenn will have to badly (like lose in their first SEC tourney game badly).
That being said, I will be happy with a #2. If you think about it, a one seed doesn't have any great advantage over a two except for bragging rights. The teams that each will face will be comparable. Last year 2 of the #1 seeds made the Final Four, in 2006 only one made it.
It will take a bad loss by another top team or two.
Honestly, I don't think a UNC loss in the ACC tourney - to Duke or anyone else - will wrestle away their #1 seed. Could Duke slip into one of the other #1 seeds with an ACC championship combined with bad losses by Memphis, UCLA, Tenn, and/or Kansas? Might can.
Another scenario that may open the door for a Duke #1 seed, albeit not one I would hope for, is the loss of a critical player for one of the expected #1 seeds - ala Kenyon Martin a few years back. Who might be this critical?
UNC: Hansborough, Ellington, Lawson?
UCLA: Collison, Love?
Memphis: Douglas-Roberts, Rose?
Tennessee: Lofton?
Kansas: Arthur, Rush, Chalmers?