Season tips off one month from today/Your expectations for 2012-2013

Depending on the extensiveness of Marshall's injury, I expect to see Kelly logging close to 40mpg. Not that I expected to see Marshall become a part of the rotation, but Kelly will most likely be playing the big forward spot as well as center when Mason gets a breather or is caught in foul trouble. We don't have anyone else who can do that. This opens up more opportunity for Hairston.

Injuries are inevitable. How we are able to compensate for them is always key. We weren't able to at all when Kelly was out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jipops

Depending on the extensiveness of Marshall's injury, I expect to see Kelly logging close to 40mpg.

---

As I mentioned in the Marshall Plumlee injury thread, I don't think this is something to get concerned about. It's easy to map out a rotation where Mason and Ryan are both on the floor for 20 minutes and each of them play center for 10 minutes with either Josh or Amile at PF. That would mean each of Mason and Ryan would play about 30 minutes, which is what I would expect of them with or without Marshall's injury.

Put another way, I expect Marshall, Josh, and Amile to split 20 minutes at C/PF. If Marshall is healthy, he'll get some of those 20 minutes. If he isn't healthy, then Amile and Josh will have to divvy up the 20 minutes amongst themselves. Doesn't really affect Mason or Ryan at all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jipops

Depending on the extensiveness of Marshall's injury, I expect to see Kelly logging close to 40mpg.

---

So, then, let's play Kelly for 40 mpg to prevent him from getting hurt this year? I don't think the answer to frontcourt depth is playing Kelly or Mason for 40 minutes. Better to face the reality of playing Murphy and/or Hairston or even Jefferson as "relievers" up front. Remember, Singler played a good bit at the 5 spot in his early days at Duke.

There may be a slight increase in Mason/Ryan minutes, because of Marshall being out. More likely puts us with Amile or Josh on the floor (as a big) for 8-10 more minutes. This will hurt the defense a bit, depending on the match-ups, because you can't coach seven feet tall.

Now, depending on the team we play, it could have an impact. If it was a team that Marshall would not have matched up well against (a small, athletic team) - Marshall wouldn't have played much anyway. Again a team with frontcourt size and depth - it hurts. Marshall is has height and size that Josh and Amile can't replicate. It could lead to foul trouble for Mason/Ryan - meaning fewer minutes for them and even more minutes for a smaller lineup in a game when we want to go bigger.

The coaching staff will certainly adjust game strategy (for certain opponents) while Marshall is out.

Darn.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jcastranio

There may be a slight increase in Mason/Ryan minutes, because of Marshall being out. More likely puts us with Amile or Josh on the floor (as a big) for 8-10 more minutes. This will hurt the defense a bit, depending on the match-ups, because you can't coach seven feet tall.

Now, depending on the team we play, it could have an impact. If it was a team that Marshall would not have matched up well against (a small, athletic team) - Marshall wouldn't have played much anyway. Again a team with frontcourt size and depth - it hurts. Marshall is has height and size that Josh and Amile can't replicate. It could lead to foul trouble for Mason/Ryan - meaning fewer minutes for them and even more minutes for a smaller lineup in a game when we want to go bigger.

The coaching staff will certainly adjust game strategy (for certain opponents) while Marshall is out.

Darn.

---

Maybe not. While Amile lacks bulk, he as great length and quickness, skills that to me are just as important as height. If Amile can pick up on Duke's help defense scheme's quickly, he can be a real asset in the paint. Josh is a good defender on most college PF's. Even with Marshall out, we still have 5 capable post defenders. 2 that can guard college 5's for sure (Mason/Ryan), 1 that can guard college PF's and some college Centers (Amile), and 2 (Murph/Josh) that can guard college PF's.

I would certainly prefer to have MP3 as an option to defend centers, and hope he gets back soon, but we do have options to get by until he returns.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Newton_14

Maybe not. While Amile lacks bulk, he as great length and quickness, skills that to me are just as important as height. If Amile can pick up on Duke's help defense scheme's quickly, he can be a real asset in the paint. Josh is a good defender on most college PF's. Even with Marshall out, we still have 5 capable post defenders. 2 that can guard college 5's for sure (Mason/Ryan), 1 that can guard college PF's and some college Centers (Amile), and 2 (Murph/Josh) that can guard college PF's.

I would certainly prefer to have MP3 as an option to defend centers, and hope he gets back soon, but we do have options to get by until he returns.

---

I'm with you. I agree that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us. I just think that not having the big guy for certain games and situations will cause us to need better team defense - something that Amile may not pick up as quickly. The Duke big men have a lot to learn when it comes to team defense - hedge and recover, guarding out to the 3 point line, jump or don't jump, help and recover, where and how to box out - and Amile will learn that. It just takes time. While Marshall certainly hasn't proven himself trained in that area, he was seven feet tall.

Not a game-changer, just sets our defensive progress back.

With Marshall injured, won't that result in more time with a "small" lineup that includes Alex as a 4 and Rasheed playing 3 ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bay Area Duke Fan

With Marshall injured, won't that result in more time with a "small" lineup that includes Alex as a 4 and Rasheed playing 3 ?

---

It's possible, but I don't know that the odds of this happening increase too much. I don't think anyone expected Marshall to be much more than a 10 minute a game backup, and that only if he beat out Amile and Josh for the primary frontcourt backup duties.

Now, most likely is Amile and Josh split the (approximately) 20 frontcourt backup minutes (which they might have been doing anyway). If Amile proves not ready to take that role, then it's possible Alex could slide over to PF for a few minutes a game, but my guess is the first choice would still be for Amile and Josh to grab those minutes if they can.

Having said all that, your scenario could also possibly materialize as a late game strategy to get as many ballhandlers on the court as possible. But again, I don't know that Marshall's injury has much if any effect on the odds of that happening.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

It's possible, but I don't know that the odds of this happening increase too much. I don't think anyone expected Marshall to be much more than a 10 minute a game backup, and that only if he beat out Amile and Josh for the primary frontcourt backup duties.

---

A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Indoor66

A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.

---

Rationalization... we're good at it here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

As I mentioned in the Marshall Plumlee injury thread, I don't think this is something to get concerned about. It's easy to map out a rotation where Mason and Ryan are both on the floor for 20 minutes and each of them play center for 10 minutes with either Josh or Amile at PF. That would mean each of Mason and Ryan would play about 30 minutes, which is what I would expect of them with or without Marshall's injury.

Put another way, I expect Marshall, Josh, and Amile to split 20 minutes at C/PF. If Marshall is healthy, he'll get some of those 20 minutes. If he isn't healthy, then Amile and Josh will have to divvy up the 20 minutes amongst themselves. Doesn't really affect Mason or Ryan at all.

---

With Josh now up to about 240 this does seem plausible even though he is only about 6-7. I would think that when this is the case K would want to have 6-8 Jefferson and 6-8 Murphy joining him on the front line so we're not so small. If Sheed is out there in place of Murphy in this case, then we're looking kind of tiny and at a big disadvantage defensively. But hopefully this won't be too much more than about 5 minutes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Indoor66

A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.

---

I think the 10 mpg expectation was for this season, a season in which Duke is starting a pair of 6-11 seniors with all-star potential at the post positions.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Indoor66

A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jimsumner

I think the 10 mpg expectation was for this season, a season in which Duke is starting a pair of 6-11 seniors with all-star potential at the post positions.

---

Agree that the ~10 mpg expectation was for 2012-13 season only. In fact, preferably with or unfortunately without Austin Nichols' matriculation at Duke, I think the consensus expectation for Marshall P. would be more like ~25 mpg in 2013-14 season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gumbomoop

Agree that the ~10 mpg expectation was for 2012-13 season only. In fact, preferably with or unfortunately without Austin Nichols' matriculation at Duke, I think the consensus expectation for Marshall P. would be more like ~25 mpg in 2013-14 season.

---

Yes, I'm sorry if I was unclear earlier. My expectation was certainly only for this season. Next season the hope/expectation is he would be a starter playing at least 25 minutes.

This season, as Jim Sumner mentioned, we have two all-conference talent big men who should both play ~30 minutes a game. This leaves only 20 big man minutes to be split among Marshall, Josh, and Amile. All three of these guys have talent, and while Josh is the shortest at 6'7", he also has the most experience, so it's not clear which of them would emerge as the primary backup for Mason and Ryan. If all three were healthy, my guess would be one would get around 10 mpg, one would get around 7 mpg and the other would get around 3 mpg. Thus my statement that Marshall wasn't generally expected to get more than 10 mpg.

I predict that Mason and Ryan will both play a minimum of 32 minutes per meaningful game. Amile, Marshall, and Josh will not IMO play significant minutes. Of those 3, I think Amile will have the best chance to have a breakthrough if nothing else just because not enough is known about him to discount his contribution this year. I REALLY hope that Alex can play the 3. I'm not one that likes the small ball that we were forced to do last year. I think losing Austin automatically makes us a better defensive team. Sulaimon, I don't believe will start, but maybe he can play time at 1, 2, and 3. I think him playing 20-25 minutes a game spelling, Cook, Murphy and Curry will be about the norm. Mason and Ryan as well as Curry should all have monster years. Things should only improve from last year. I'm really excited. I have always hoped that the Murphy to Singler comparisons will have more in common than just the jersey number. If that is the case, I don't see a limit. Sulaimon as a defensive stopper will be an upgrade over Rivers. Offensively, if the guys plays as a team and not four guys watching Austin go one on five and taking an off balance jumper.

Well the ACC Coaches have spoken:

1. NC State (8) 139
2. Duke (3) 130
3. North Carolina (1) 124
4. Miami 104
5. Florida State 103
6. Maryland 78
7. Virginia 68
8. Clemson 61
9. Georgia Tech 40
10.t Virginia Tech 32
10.t Wake Forest 32
12. Boston College 25

http://espn.go.com/blog/north-caroli...-acc-unc-third

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jcastranio

I'm with you. I agree that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us. I just think that not having the big guy for certain games and situations will cause us to need better team defense - something that Amile may not pick up as quickly. The Duke big men have a lot to learn when it comes to team defense - hedge and recover, guarding out to the 3 point line, jump or don't jump, help and recover, where and how to box out - and Amile will learn that. It just takes time. While Marshall certainly hasn't proven himself trained in that area, he was seven feet tall.

Not a game-changer, just sets our defensive progress back.

---

I can ultimately handle another foot injury, but if our players are now shrinking then I think Coach K really needs to address our recent string of ailments. This is getting ridiculous.

;)

Great points, though, especially regarding Amile. I am of the view that Marshall's injury, while terribly unfortunate, could actually help speed up Amile's learning curve by allowing him to compile more minutes at the four spot if Ryan is indeed called upon to spell Mason more frequently than would have been necessary with a healthy Marshall. With that said, it's hard to tell how many minutes Marshall actually would have logged early on in the season, so it's difficult to know if his absence will have any appreciable affect on the lineup at all. Although, as others have pointed out, the sudden lack of a seven-footer in practice to go neck-and-neck with Mason is certainly an unlucky development.

And, as you say, I think Josh can provide us some quality minutes as well as a scrappy 6'7, 240-pound frame with the ability to corral rebounds and bring an overall energy to the floor.

jcastranio,

Upon second look at my previous post, sorry if I put any words in your mouth re: Amile. Even though you agreed that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us, I obviously meant to attribute the points I made about Amile more to the poster you had quoted (Newton). I will blame that on the monster amount of beer I had while in Mexico in summer of 2010, even if that explanation is based in no amount of logic whatsoever.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cameron

jcastranio,

Upon second look at my previous post, sorry if I put any words in your mouth re: Amile. Even though you agreed that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us, I obviously meant to attribute the points I made about Amile more to the poster you had quoted (Newton). I will blame that on the monster amount of beer I had while in Mexico in summer of 2010, even if that explanation is based in no amount of logic whatsoever.

---

I agree with you about Amile.

Looks like Seth Davis either has a man crush on Ryan or underestimates Mason:

Seth Davis ‏@SethDavisHoops
Disagree but most don't realize he is Duke's best player RT @Zonacats1: Ryan Kelly is going to win ACC player of the year.