The Conference Realignment Vigil- Update: Terps to Big10?

Texas A&M is so upset about the "unfair" Longhorn Network that they are in talks to go to the SEC as soon as next year (supposedly). Aggies will tell you that the SEC is fine going to 13 teams. I'll believe that when I see it, but I do believe these talks are much more real than they were a year ago -- so the question begs, who would the 14th team be, and could it impact the ACC?

Aggie Rick "good hair" Perry even weighed in yesterday. In my biassed opinion, it's a colossally stupid by A&M, done more out of spite than an actual benefit to their program and their university, both financially and with respect to success on the football field, basketball court and non-revenue sports. But hey, if the offers there, take it, and let the sketchy recruiting of the SEC West further infect Texas high school football. Additionally,

But --- if A&M is successful in leaving, the Big XII becomes less lucrative for Texas to stay in and we could be looking at everything unwinding much sooner than the projected 2015 date.

If you enjoy game theorizing this stuff and speculation, join in. If you think this rampant speculation is stupid and a waste of time, I hear you through your silence. No need to respond to the post. :p

(Also I love the irony that the provisions that A&M is upset with in the LHN contract are very similar to provisions in the contract that Florida has with Sun Sports.)

This is like a big game of Risk. Be careful when Texas makes a move on the Ukraine.

NC State basketball coach Mark Gottfried is getting in on the rumor-mongering. Uh oh. Claims Texas A&M and... FSU to the SEC. FSU is the only ACC team that both makes sense to be taken and makes sense to leave. Except that they go from top of the ACC in football to middle of the SEC. So not really.

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Hearing that Texas A&M and FSU may join SEC.That would be interesting. All I know is that the ACC is still envy of all for hoops!

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https://twitter.com/#!/Mark_Gottfrie...14517746499585

Can we throw in BC or Miami in trade for SC and Vandy?

Yeah, fsu to the sec kinda works both ways.

We'd have to fill in the hole that fsu leaves, right? The whole point of the 2004-05 expansion was getting to 12 teams. Could we just take Vandy off the sec's hands? Who in the Big East can we snag that has competitive football and sorta cares about academics/ethics? Pitt? Could we go after the Cuse again?

There are good reasons to have BC around. They actually care about the non-athletic aspects of running a university.

Though after UNC and Duke, VA T and FSU are currently a couple of the better basketball teams, I say if they go, do not replace them.

Of course this is a basketball perspective, not a football one, but I would love to see the league be small enough to have true home and home series with everybody again and still leave room for quality OOC competition from teams outside the regional geography.

I seriously doubt any of UNC, Duke, NC St or Wake would leave the ACC.

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Originally Posted by hurleyfor3

Who in the Big East can we snag that has competitive football and sorta cares about academics/ethics? Pitt? Could we go after the Cuse again?

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The ACC is not nearly as appealing to Big East teams as it was 6 years ago....the football is extremely mediocre in both conferences, and the Big East has had the upper hand of late in terms of basketball exposure. Big East football having added TCU means its unlikely there would be a huge revenue boost from playing ACC football...especially since the two conferences are considered the pits compared to the other 4 bcs conferences

Why don't we act like we'd hate to see Clemson leave?

hud

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Originally Posted by uh_no

The ACC is not nearly as appealing to Big East teams as it was 6 years ago....the football is extremely mediocre in both conferences, and the Big East has had the upper hand of late in terms of basketball exposure. Big East football having added TCU means its unlikely there would be a huge revenue boost from playing ACC football...especially since the two conferences are considered the pits compared to the other 4 bcs conferences

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I'm not sure the BE has had a substantially better track record in hoops than the ACC has, regardless of whether you go back five, 10 or 30 years. Maybe the BE's success had been a tad more diversified among the entire conference... maybe. Also, the BE is facing the same specter of its highest profile basketball coaches kinda getting up there in years as the ACC is (arguably the BE has it worse).

Yes, TCU will boost the BE's football profile, but TCU may run into the same situation as we had with FSU in the 90s-early 00s, in that it is a giant among dwarves (and that many of the dwarves' fanbases don't care). The BE still won't have a championship game, and we will as long as we're at 12. Not that our championship game is hot stuff, but at least we have one and the BE doesn't.

There are other issues present. The BE is far more geographically unwieldy than the ACC is, and I have to believe the schools in it are far more disparate in terms of philosophy, budget et cetera. I'm kinda surprised that BE has stayed at 16 (now 17) teams this long.

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Originally Posted by hurleyfor3

I'm not sure the BE has had a substantially better track record in hoops than the ACC has, regardless of whether you go back five, 10 or 30 years. Maybe the BE's success had been a tad more diversified among the entire conference... maybe. Also, the BE is facing the same specter of its highest profile basketball coaches kinda getting up there in years as the ACC is (arguably the BE has it worse).

Yes, TCU will boost the BE's football profile, but TCU may run into the same situation as we had with FSU in the 90s-early 00s, in that it is a giant among dwarves (and that many of the dwarves' fanbases don't care). The BE still won't have a championship game, and we will as long as we're at 12. Not that our championship game is hot stuff, but at least we have one and the BE doesn't.

There are other issues present. The BE is far more geographically unwieldy than the ACC is, and I have to believe the schools in it are far more disparate in terms of philosophy, budget et cetera. I'm kinda surprised that BE has stayed at 16 (now 17) teams this long.

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I think that targets for the ACC might include several schools that were rumored to be in the sight lines during BigTweleven expansion. These would include 'Cuse, Pitt, West Virginia and Rutgers. While I find this to be gross and unwieldy from a basketball perspective, the fact of the matter is that conferences moving forward are going after the football dollars and the safety in numbers kind of thing.

If FSU left, I could see replacing them with one of the schools above. I could also see adding 3 of the schools above in order to protect the conference from further defections. I think it might be possible to add three of these schools, and divide the conference into the "traditional powers" and the "newcomers" in two seven team divisions with each division playing a round robin basketball schedule within division and 6 cross over games. Thus an 18 game conference schedule... which seems doable to me.

Traditional Powers
Duke
NCState
Wake
UNC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Maryland

Newcomers
Miami
BC
VaTech
Virginia (Put here to preserve the UVa-VPI rivalry)
Cuse
Pitt
Rutgers

For football you play your own division plus 3 crossovers to get 9 games... which wouldn't be all that different. the "Newcomers might be a bit tougher in football than the traditional powers, but the reverse might be true for Bball. However, I think this type of move would make for one helluva basketball conference (which most ACCers hang their hats on anyway) AND would satiate some of the lamenting about the old glory of the traditional ACC home and home.

I think the move to 14 would also create some cushion to preserve the need for 12 teams for a football championship game. This wouldn't do anything to the Big East, as they'll take anybody.

Despite what the Aggies are saying this is far from a done deal and may be a lot of hubbub over nothing.

- The NCAA ruled against having high school games on networks affiliated with conferences or schools which was one of A&M's main beefs (I wonder if Sun Sports can carry high school games? If so, Florida found a nifty way to skirt that issue).

- ESPN and FOX will be completely against this move. They may not be able to stop it, but they, along with some huge power brokers for the "forgotten 5" (like Drayton McClane on behalf of Baylor) combined with a gunshy Texas A&M Board of Regents kept the Big XII together. A&M's leaders appear to raring to go now, but will the SEC schools take less of the pie to bring them (and perhaps another school in)? Would ESPN be willing to "look in" on their SEC contract and perhaps pay more when the value of their Big XII contract (and perhaps their Longhorn Network contract - which was just devalued by the NCAA's ruling mentioned above already) is diminished by the departure of ESPN? I am not saying the WWL can stop this from happening, but they can certainly influence the outcome.

- And lest we forget, state legislatures will always have a say. After a brutal session this year, the Texas legislature is finally out of session, but low and behold

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. It could trigger armageddon, or nothing could happen at all. Is there any more smoke on FSU other than Gottfried's tweet? Nothing like that has been mentioned on this side of the Mississippi.

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Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil

Despite what the Aggies are saying this is far from a done deal and may be a lot of hubbub over nothing.

- The NCAA ruled against having high school games on networks affiliated with conferences or schools which was one of A&M's main beefs (I wonder if Sun Sports can carry high school games? If so, Florida found a nifty way to skirt that issue).

- ESPN and FOX will be completely against this move. They may not be able to stop it, but they, along with some huge power brokers for the "forgotten 5" (like Drayton McClane on behalf of Baylor) combined with a gunshy Texas A&M Board of Regents kept the Big XII together. A&M's leaders appear to raring to go now, but will the SEC schools take less of the pie to bring them (and perhaps another school in)? Would ESPN be willing to "look in" on their SEC contract and perhaps pay more when the value of their Big XII contract (and perhaps their Longhorn Network contract - which was just devalued by the NCAA's ruling mentioned above already) is diminished by the departure of ESPN? I am not saying the WWL can stop this from happening, but they can certainly influence the outcome.

- And lest we forget, state legislatures will always have a say. After a brutal session this year, the Texas legislature is finally out of session, but low and behold

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. It could trigger armageddon, or nothing could happen at all. Is there any more smoke on FSU other than Gottfried's tweet? Nothing like that has been mentioned on this side of the Mississippi.

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Some interesting information, observations, and speculation in this article--including a suggestion that the SEC won't add any school in a state where it already has a presence (eliminating FSU) and a theory about why the SEC might covet Duke:

http://outkickthecoverage.com/sec-ex...ent-states.php

The Big East is an interesting case. I've seen some scuttlebutt that the non-football teams aren't happy with the current situation after 'Nova's football team was blocked from being invited due to the stadium.

The Big East was a potential landing spot for the Kansas schools and Mizzou had the Pac-16 happened last year. If A&M bolts and Texas goes indy, or somehow convinces the Pac-10 or Big 10 to take them and 1 or 3 other teams, that scenario could play out again, splitting the Big East into two separate conferences. One that doesn't have D-1A football with Marquette, Georgetown, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall, 'Nova, De Paul... and of course Notre Dame... with the rest plus the Big XII remnants and TCu forming a conference that has football too.

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Originally Posted by Stray Gator

Some interesting information, observations, and speculation in this article--including a suggestion that the SEC won't add any school in a state where it already has a presence (eliminating FSU) and a theory about why the SEC might covet Duke:

http://outkickthecoverage.com/sec-ex...ent-states.php

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I think the only way we leave the ACC is if some sort of Category 5 hurricane takes place, where multiple invaders tear up the conference including part of the Big Four. Not saying it's impossible, but the ACC as a conference is far less vulnerable than the XII or BE are.

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Originally Posted by Stray Gator

Some interesting information, observations, and speculation in this article--including a suggestion that the SEC won't add any school in a state where it already has a presence (eliminating FSU) and a theory about why the SEC might covet Duke:

http://outkickthecoverage.com/sec-ex...ent-states.php

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Highly doubting it would ever happen as hurleyfor3 so definitively stated, but we do have an ethically challenged neighbor a few miles south on 15-501 who might qualify from a FB perspective(insert faint sounds of whistling here).

Can NC State in fact act independently from unc? There's a board of governors for the entire system, and wouldn't it have to approve any move?

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Originally Posted by devildeac

Highly doubting it would ever happen as hurleyfor3 so definitively stated, but we do have an ethically challenged neighbor a few miles south on 15-501 who might qualify from a FB perspective(insert faint sounds of whistling here).

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There was an article/blog post written last summer about how UNC would be the perfect compliment in the SEC. This was prior to the NCAA shenanigans. It's bad timing right now for the SEC to make overtures at UNC, but I don't see it as an impossibility as conference realignment chaos continues through 2015.

I believe that by the end of the decade there is a good possibility we'll see four 16-18 team football only conferences (with NCAA governed championships staying in roughly the same conference format we have now). These conferences won't be under the auspices of the NCAA, but some new governing body. It will essentially be a junior NFL with four conferences instead of two, and with a similar playoff format. ESPN (because they don't want to renogtiate locked in contracts) and Bowls (because they don't want to lose the cash cow) will fight this, but eventually, I think ESPN sees the profitability of a playoff structure and goes with it.

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Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil

I believe that by the end of the decade there is a good possibility we'll see four 16-18 team football only conferences (with NCAA governed championships staying in roughly the same conference format we have now).

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That's what everybody said last time, and it didn't happen. The only thing I am sure about in terms of conference realignment is that no one really has a clue what's going to happen, and any guess is as good as any other.

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Originally Posted by uh_no

That's what everybody said last time, and it didn't happen. The only thing I am sure about in terms of conference realignment is that no one really has a clue what's going to happen, and any guess is as good as any other.

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Some truth to that -- the article Stray posted said as much. UT was ready to announce in front of the tower last year that they were moving to the Pac-10. Chip Brown was WAY out in front of that. Then ish happened and the Big XII was saved. It didn't mean Chip Brown was wrong when he reported it. It was just wrong a day later. That press conference was being set up as big to-do on campus then they had to scuttle it at the last second when the Big XII deal came through.

I enjoyed that article's SEC perspective. I think the SEC would be foolish not to invite the Aggies and make further inroads on Texas recruiting, but just because it's a "done deal" amongst the Collie worshippers' board of regents doesn't mean the SEC has signed off on it yet. And most importantly, ESPN hasn't weighed in at all. Until they do, I agree, anything can, and nothing may, happen. But it's not a matter of wrong or right or not having a clue, it's more about dealing with an awfully fluid situation where things are nailed down one minute then get blown up the next.

I think there is only one Duke vote that counts when the discussion about an SEC(or anywhere else) comes up and that is Coach K. If he supports it, which I would doubt, it might happen. If he says no, then, IMO, Duke to the SEC is DOA