Premature speculation on next season's starting lineup

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Originally Posted by uh_no

It comes down to what muprhy and rasheed bring to the table. If murphy is a stud, he gets most of the minutes at the 3 and mop up at the 4, and hairston gets squeezed. Dawkins mops up at 3 and takes minutes at the two, with seth. Sheed gets squeezed.

If rasheed is a stud, he'll get minutes at the two splitting with seth, and at 3 with andre. Hairston gets most of the rest of the time at the 4, maybe some at the 3 if he can knock down the midrange jumper, and andre might get squeezed out here (along with alex)

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I don't think it's quite as simple as you make it. First, I see you're leaving Michael out, which based on the rumors sounds possible but is certainly not a given yet. But for the purposes of this post I'll follow your lead and leave him out.

Anyway, I think you're being too quick to give all the backup C minutes to Marshall and too quick to give all the PG minutes to Quinn and Tyler. Where I think this exercise should start is with Mason, Ryan, and Seth. I believe by the end of the season Mason and Ryan will be playing 30 minutes each (absent injury or foul trouble). It's not a gimme that Marshall plays the 10 minutes Mason is off the floor, because for 10 minutes Ryan could man the C spot adequately. So for now let's say Marshall, Josh, and Alex will split 20 big man minutes.

Seth should also play at least 30 minutes at SG. I think Tyler and Quinn will split 35 minutes at PG. My guess is we will start the season with around 20 mpg for Tyler and 15 for Quinn, and end the season with 25 for Quinn and 10 for Tyler. Although if Quinn's D doesn't advance and/or Tyler's O blossoms (neither of which seems especially likely, but both certainly seem plausible), we could find those late-season estimates reversed.

With so many small guards, I doubt Andre plays much at SG. If Rasheed's D is as good as people have been saying, he's going to play at least 10 or 15 minutes, taking the 10 SG minutes left over by Seth and the 5 PG minutes left over by Quinn/Tyler. (If Rasheed isn't ready to play any PG, Seth could slide over there for 5 minutes, giving Rasheed 15 mpg at SG.)

There's also the possibility that Seth and/or Rasheed play a lot at PG, which would reduce Quinn's and/or Tyler's minutes and boost minutes elsewhere, but at this point at least this seems unlikely to occur.

Of course, if Rasheed isn't ready at all (which I tend to doubt, but you never know), then Quinn/Tyler/Andre/Alex, and maybe Seth will all play more minutes than I am giving them here.

If Rasheed is very ready, at least on the defensive end, then I see him getting more than 15 minutes. Assuming he (or Seth) aren't eating too many PG minutes, perhaps he could steal an extra 5 minutes at SF, against teams with smallish SFs or SFs who aren't offensive-minded and/or won't post him up.

Andre and Alex are, like Rasheed, more or less wild cards. I could see both of them playing as little as 10 mpg or as much as 25 mpg. If they both deserve 25 mpg, then Andre could play all of his at SF while Alex plays 10 at SF and 15 at PF, leaving 5 mpg for Marshall and Josh to split. If Andre's minutes shrink, then Alex could play more SF and less PF, giving more minutes to Marshall/Josh; or Tyler or Rasheed could play more SF minutes, although obviously that wouldn't work against every opponent due to size reasons. If Marshall or Josh breakout and deserve 15 or 20 minutes (unlikely in my mind, but possible), then either Alex, Andre, or Rasheed will get their SF minutes squeezed accordingly, with one of them probably shrinking near (or even below) 10 mpg.

If it plays out the way I've outlined, the minutes shake out as follows:

Tyler 10 to 20 ---] 35 combined
Quinn 10 to 25 --]

Seth 30
Mason 30
Ryan 30

Josh -----------] 5 to 20 combined; my projection = 10 combined
Marshall --------]

Rasheed 10 to 20 --]
Andre 10 to 25 -----] 55 to 70 combined; my projection = 65 combined
Alex 10 to 25 ------]


Obviously it's very early and there are approximately 8 bzillion variables that might change between now and November. But in a world without {g} and with no additional recruits, that's my best current take on how it might shake out.

I think that Rasheed might be great, seriously great who has the temperments to play either the one or the two. I actually think that he will play the two but will be responsible for the most significant passes. This guy impresses me as being a JWill type, not as strong, outright talented, but a tremendous athlete with the vision, generosity, ability to get inside the defense, the ability to shoot over it, to make any team better and to make Duke extremely, extremely dangerous. I like the fact that many highlights showing him finishing off the backboard when he could have thrown it down, a talent that Nolan did not develop until his senior year but is ever more a talent needed by a high end guard. I really like his shot, the fact that he will take it off the bounce inside the three line, and blow by people who try to stop that. I like his alertness. I like his smile, his demeanor which I thinki will bring a needed lightness, not be be mistaken for softness to this team. I think that that softness, team suppleness, will make the whole adhere.

He will allow for offensive play that Mason while love. I think he is a far better get than the one-and-doners the cover articles label as significant misses. This guy my intuition based on what I've seen is for this team a wonderful, wonderful addition.

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Originally Posted by CDu

Did Brand miss 7+ months with his broken foot? Did Boozer miss 7+ months with his broken foot? Did Irving miss 7+ months with his injured toe? No, I don't have any actual news. But common sense and past history would suggest that there's little reason to worry that he'll not be ready for next season.

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Since we're talking about common sense, wouldn't it be sensible to wait and see how Ryan is actually doing? Past history is nice, but each kid is different.

We had more injury updates for KM than we've had for one of our own. Factor in the sketchy info which was released about the nature of the injury to begin with and one shouldn't take anything for granted.

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Originally Posted by ncexnyc

Since we're talking about common sense, wouldn't it be sensible to wait and see how Ryan is actually doing? Past history is nice, but each kid is different.

We had more injury updates for KM than we've had for one of our own. Factor in the sketchy info which was released about the nature of the injury to begin with and one shouldn't take anything for granted.

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Well, the title of the thread makes it pretty clear that this discussion is premature. As such, I think it's fair to assume that Kelly's injury will be healed (since the whole discussion is premature). That said, it would seem extremely unlikely that Kelly wouldn't be ready for next season. But by all means feel free to not assume that he'll be healthy in your premature speculation.

Whether you believe Gbinije could've helped with more time last year or not, the handwriting was on the wall for him next year. When Mason decided to stay with Marshall coming in, Murphy's minutes were going to be limited at the 4 and with Murphy and Sulaimon coming in to mix with two seniors at the wings, Gbinije was essentially squeezed out at the 3.

Aside from K historical playing no more than 8-9 players, unless all starters were limited to 25 minutes or less and everyone else shared approx 12-13 minutes a piece, there would not be enough PT to go around for 11 guys. With no superstar on the team, that is still a plausible scenario.

I think he brings an element that is a combination of size, strength, elevation, and quickness, that no other player on the roster has. But, as was alluded to in an earlier post, if he was slow to catch on to the team concepts (especially offensive) he may not have been able to help as much as I think.

With Mike G now confirming his transfer and assuming we don't get commitments from Hood or Amile, I think the lineup shakes out as follows:

PG: Cook starting with Tyler and Seth backing him up.
SG: Seth starting with Sheed, Dre and Tyler backing him up.
SF: Alex starting with Sheed and Dre backing him up when we go small.
PF: Ryan starting with Alex, Josh and Marshall backing him up.
C: Mason starting with Marshall backing him up.

As it stands above, we have a 10-man rotation. I think the non-starters who get the most minutes will be Tyler and Sheed. I also think Marshall gets decent minutes (12 per game) simply because of our lack of depth in the front court. I'm sorry to say it, but I think we see the trend from this year continue with Dre as he gets squeezed more and more. Here is how I see the minutes breaking up:

Ryan: 30mpg
Seth: 28mpg
Mason: 27mpg
Alex: 24mpg
Cook: 23mpg
Tyler: 22mpg
Sheed: 18mpg
Marshall: 12mpg
Dre: 10mpg
Josh: 6mpg

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

With Mike G now confirming his transfer and assuming we don't get commitments from Hood or Amile, I think the lineup shakes out as follows:

PG: Cook starting with Tyler and Seth backing him up.
SG: Seth starting with Sheed, Dre and Tyler backing him up.
SF: Alex starting with Sheed and Dre backing him up when we go small.
PF: Ryan starting with Alex, Josh and Marshall backing him up.
C: Mason starting with Marshall backing him up.

As it stands above, we have a 10-man rotation.

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I agree with your starting five (assuming, as you do, that we don't add or subtract anyone else), but I'll be stunned if we're playing ten guys in games that matter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 7 guys get most of the minutes, with TT and Sheed as the primary backups (and Murphy/ Kelly shifting to the 4/5 for stretches to keep MP2 fresh). Might be 8-9 guys seeing the court (I doubt Dre will disappear entirely, for example), but as far as a regular rotation, that roster screams "7 guys" at me.

With {g} leaving I'll have to change my previous post:

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Originally Posted by elvis14

To get back to the original question, now that we know Mason is staying and Bazz is west coast bound here's the lineup I'd LIKE to see (note that I realize that it's not likely):

PG: Quinn/Tyler
SG: Rasheed/Curry/Dawkins
SF: Mike/Alex/Dawkins
PF: Kelly/Alex/Mike/Hairston
C: MP2/MP3/Kelly

We might lose some games early in the season but it would cool to be one of the teams that improves greatly at the end and makes a run like we did in 2010. I also like that K adjusts lineups and PT based on match ups and who we are playing.

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PG: Quinn/Tyler
SG: Rasheed/Curry/Dawkins
SF: Alex/Dawkins
PF: Kelly/Alex/Mike/Hairston
C: MP2/MP3/Kelly

OK so I pretty much just removed Mike's name from the SF slot. Hate that :( All of a sudden the Bazz miss seems more damaging.

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Originally Posted by Matches

I agree with your starting five (assuming, as you do, that we don't add or subtract anyone else), but I'll be stunned if we're playing ten guys in games that matter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 7 guys get most of the minutes, with TT and Sheed as the primary backups (and Murphy/ Kelly shifting to the 4/5 for stretches to keep MP2 fresh). Might be 8-9 guys seeing the court (I doubt Dre will disappear entirely, for example), but as far as a regular rotation, that roster screams "7 guys" at me.

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I agree completely with you. My positional alignment and minutes breakdown was meant for more of the November - early January time. I think as K settles in and feels comfortable Josh gets squeezed almost completely out and Dre's minutes continue to drop. But, depending on Marshall's development as the season progresses, I could see him get double-digit minutes throughout the season because of the lack of front-court depth.

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

I agree completely with you. My positional alignment and minutes breakdown was meant for more of the November - early January time. I think as K settles in and feels comfortable Josh gets squeezed almost completely out and Dre's minutes continue to drop. But, depending on Marshall's development as the season progresses, I could see him get double-digit minutes throughout the season because of the lack of front-court depth.

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Obviously we'll see. At the moment, I'm assuming Alex can be a viable big man on the defensive end, so I expect Marshall's minutes in your chart mostly to go to Andre. I also expect Tyler's minutes to diminish slightly as the year goes on (assuming Quinn or Rasheed, or both, become capable defenders) and that could boost Andre's minutes also.

As a senior and a potentially devastating offensive weapon, I think K will try to keep Andre in the rotation. Although it's really up to Andre whether he stays there. He has to maintain focus on both ends of the floor, which is something he's had trouble with for his entire Duke career.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

Obviously we'll see. At the moment, I'm assuming Alex can be a viable big man on the defensive end, so I expect Marshall's minutes in your chart mostly to go to Andre. I also expect Tyler's minutes to diminish slightly as the year goes on (assuming Quinn or Rasheed, or both, become capable defenders) and that could boost Andre's minutes also.

As a senior and a potentially devastating offensive weapon, I think K will try to keep Andre in the rotation. Although it's really up to Andre whether he stays there. He has to maintain focus on both ends of the floor, which is something he's had trouble with for his entire Duke career.

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I agree about K trying to keep Dre in games, but IMO we will see a repeat of what happened this year with K trying to give Dre minutes toward the beginning of the season and Dre slowly giving them up as it progresses.

In regard to Tyler, K certainly loves him as well. He won the Coaches Award for overall commitment to Duke Basketball and Top Defender Award at the banquet this year, and I read in a recent article that K called him "The player that most embodies Duke basketball." With those things, combined with the way that K used him this past year, what is the least amount of minutes you see him averaging as the season goes on?

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

In regard to Tyler, K certainly loves him as well. He won the Coaches Award for overall commitment to Duke Basketball and Top Defender Award at the banquet this year, and I read in a recent article that K called him "The player that most embodies Duke basketball." With those things, combined with the way that K used him this past year, what is the least amount of minutes you see him averaging as the season goes on?

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It really depends on how good a defender Rasheed turns out to be, and how much defensive improvement we see from Quinn. If Quinn is a good enough defender to stay on the floor and Rasheed is as good on D as some people say, then unless Tyler shows big-time improvement on offense (which could happen, of course) I'd see his minutes dwindling down somewhere between 10 and 15.

Personally, I've always felt Tyler's best role is energy defender, where he can come off the bench and disrupt the opponent without worrying about foul trouble or having to pace himself. He's also not an exceptional on-ball defender, although he is fairly stellar at off-ball D. If Rasheed and/or Quinn can contain the opposing PG, then Tyler's best use on defense would be at SG, while also filling in at PG and occasionally at SF against smaller teams. Since Seth will be getting big minutes at SG, in my mind if Tyler plays the role I've just outlined it would end up meaning no more than 10 to 15 mpg by the end of the season.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

It really depends on how good a defender Rasheed turns out to be, and how much defensive improvement we see from Quinn. If Quinn is a good enough defender to stay on the floor and Rasheed is as good on D as some people say, then unless Tyler shows big-time improvement on offense (which could happen, of course) I'd see his minutes dwindling down somewhere between 10 and 15.

Personally, I've always felt Tyler's best role is energy defender, where he can come off the bench and disrupt the opponent without worrying about foul trouble or having to pace himself. He's also not an exceptional on-ball defender, although he is fairly stellar at off-ball D. If Rasheed and/or Quinn can contain the opposing PG, then Tyler's best use on defense would be at SG, while also filling in at PG and occasionally at SF against smaller teams. Since Seth will be getting big minutes at SG, in my mind if Tyler plays the role I've just outlined it would end up meaning no more than 10 to 15 mpg by the end of the season.

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I think this is a great assessment and exactly what I would like to see happen for Tyler, Quinn, and Sheed. Also, great point about Tyler not being a great on-ball defender. I think that is something that often gets glossed over in the "Tyler is a great defender" talk. IMO, both Sheed and Quinn have the skills and body types to be more effective on-ball defenders than Tyler.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

It really depends on how good a defender Rasheed turns out to be, and how much defensive improvement we see from Quinn. If Quinn is a good enough defender to stay on the floor and Rasheed is as good on D as some people say, then unless Tyler shows big-time improvement on offense (which could happen, of course) I'd see his minutes dwindling down somewhere between 10 and 15.

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And how quickly he develops. Learning defense at Duke is a really big deal and on-ball prowess is only a part of the job. Communications, switches and many other things seem to be a challenge for freshman players at Duke and elsewhere.

sage

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

With Mike G now confirming his transfer and assuming we don't get commitments from Hood or Amile, I think the lineup shakes out as follows:

PG: Cook starting with Tyler and Seth backing him up.
SG: Seth starting with Sheed, Dre and Tyler backing him up.
SF: Alex starting with Sheed and Dre backing him up when we go small.
PF: Ryan starting with Alex, Josh and Marshall backing him up.
C: Mason starting with Marshall backing him up.

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I think we won't see much/any of Sulaimon at SF and we won't see much/any of Dawkins at SG. Sulaimon is a SG/PG, and Dawkins just doesn't have the ballhandling skills to play SG (especially since we don't have a Marshall-like PG). I also don't think Marshall will play any at PF.

I'd say more likely the following:

PG: Cook starts, Thornton and Curry back up
SG: Curry starts, Sulaimon backs up
SF: Murphy starts, Dawkins backs up
PF: Kelly starts, Hairston and Murphy back up
C: Mason starts, Marshall and Kelly back up

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

As it stands above, we have a 10-man rotation. I think the non-starters who get the most minutes will be Tyler and Sheed. I also think Marshall gets decent minutes (12 per game) simply because of our lack of depth in the front court. I'm sorry to say it, but I think we see the trend from this year continue with Dre as he gets squeezed more and more. Here is how I see the minutes breaking up:

Ryan: 30mpg
Seth: 28mpg
Mason: 27mpg
Alex: 24mpg
Cook: 23mpg
Tyler: 22mpg
Sheed: 18mpg
Marshall: 12mpg
Dre: 10mpg
Josh: 6mpg

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I'd say we're more likely to see the following minutes distribution:

Curry: 30 mpg
Kelly: 28 mpg
Mason: 28 mpg
Cook: 24 mpg
Dawkins: 22 mpg
Murphy: 20 mpg
Sulaimon: 20 mpg
Hairston: 10 mpg
Thornton: 10 mpg
Marshall: 8 mpg

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Originally Posted by sagegrouse

And how quickly he develops. Learning defense at Duke is a really big deal and on-ball prowess is only a part of the job. Communications, switches and many other things seem to be a challenge for freshman players at Duke and elsewhere.

sage

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No doubt, and I may be projecting my hope of what could happen as opposed to what is likely to happen. It seems to me that the largest component of our defensive dropoff in 2011-12 was our inability to contain the ball (and not, as many have opined, our lack of size on the wing). If Rasheed can somehow step in and be a plus defender against opposing PGs, my guess is the rest of our team playing pretty much the same as last year (plus the standard jump due to being older) will be a significantly better defensive team than this past season's club. If you then factor in that we should have more size at the wing, and all of a sudden we're a top 10 defensive team again. On the other hand, if nobody steps in and contains the opposing PG, I am afraid that despite the added size at the wing we'll still be a mediocre defensive team.

So, you see, Rasheed must be a great on ball defender, because that's what I really, really want him to be. Perfect sense, right?

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Originally Posted by CDu

I think we won't see much/any of Sulaimon at SF and we won't see much/any of Dawkins at SG. Sulaimon is a SG/PG, and Dawkins just doesn't have the ballhandling skills to play SG (especially since we don't have a Marshall-like PG). I also don't think Marshall will play any at PF.

I'd say more likely the following:

PG: Cook starts, Thornton and Curry back up
SG: Curry starts, Sulaimon backs up
SF: Murphy starts, Dawkins backs up
PF: Kelly starts, Hairston and Murphy back up
C: Mason starts, Marshall and Kelly back up



I'd say we're more likely to see the following minutes distribution:

Curry: 30 mpg
Kelly: 28 mpg
Mason: 28 mpg
Cook: 24 mpg
Dawkins: 22 mpg
Murphy: 20 mpg
Sulaimon: 20 mpg
Hairston: 10 mpg
Thornton: 10 mpg
Marshall: 8 mpg

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To me, this looks really close to what we might actually see. My only very minor quibble is I suspect Josh will have a couple fewer minutes and that Tyler will have a few more over the course of the season. By season end Tyler might be down to 10 or so, but my guess is Josh and Marshall will be only playing a couple minutes a game by March, with their minutes re-distributed among the top 7.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

To me, this looks really close to what we might actually see. My only very minor quibble is I suspect Josh will have a couple fewer minutes and that Tyler will have a few more over the course of the season. By season end Tyler might be down to 10 or so, but my guess is Josh and Marshall will be only playing a couple minutes a game by March, with their minutes re-distributed among the top 7.

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That's probably a fair point - especially if (as you had discussed earlier) Murphy is able to see some time at PF.

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Originally Posted by CDu

I'd say we're more likely to see the following minutes distribution:

Curry: 30 mpg
Kelly: 28 mpg
Mason: 28 mpg
Cook: 24 mpg
Dawkins: 22 mpg
Murphy: 20 mpg
Sulaimon: 20 mpg
Hairston: 10 mpg
Thornton: 10 mpg
Marshall: 8 mpg

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You basically swapped Dre and Tyler's minutes. I'm assuming your reasoning is similar to Kedsy's, but I don't think the splits of 22 for Dre and 10 for TT are realistic over an entire season. Over the last 6 games of the season Dre averaged 14.8 mpg and shot 3-23 from the field (2-17 from deep). Conversely, over the last 6 games averaged 31 mpg and 11-37 from the field (10-30 from deep).

I can see TT moving into a role described by Kedsy above, but I can't see him moving down to 10mpg. Just for a reference point, Hairston averaged 8.5mpg last year and that includes 11 games where he played 2 minutes or less.

Maybe something like:

Ryan: 30mpg
Seth: 28mpg
Mason: 27mpg
Alex: 24mpg
Cook: 23mpg
Sheed: 20mpg
Tyler: 16mpg
Dre: 16mpg
Marshall: 10mpg
Josh: 6mpg

Unfortunately we're in the same situation as last year. Thornton and Seth will start up front, Kelly and Mason will start down low. Who starts in between is anyone's guess. Last year many hoped it would be Gbinije and instead we went with a 3 guard line up (inserting Thornton). This year many are hoping it will be Murphy and I hope they are right. With Thornton's defensive presence, Curry's outside shooting, Kelly's ability to stretch the defense, and Mason down low...if we have someone to pencil in at that SF slot to go along with a hot shooting Dre, a passer in Cook, and hopefully some post backup in Marshall off the bench and I feel pretty good about next year. That's not even including our one incoming recruit! Now if Murphy can't do it and we go back to the 3 guard line up essentially trading one freshman guard (Rivers) for another freshman guard (Sulaimon) then it's a bit less exciting. Although certainly another year like this one isn't the worst thing in the world.