Premature speculation on next season's starting lineup

I haven't seen Rasheed play much, so I'm uniquely qualified to prematurely speculate on his playing time. Most have predicted that he'll play somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 minutes per game, a solid and unspectacular contribution (though I suspect that this guess might be affected by the desire by some not to unfairly overhype first-year players.)

But I'd like to point out that Olympic Fan, holder of many pitchforks, has said in another thread that RS will "come close to" replacing the overall impact of Rivers. Presuming OF to be "close to" correct, if you take into account that Rivers played over 33 mpg last season (most on the team), and that K shows no hesitancy to play freshmen a lot of minutes if they're ready, aren't we underguessing Rasheed's minutes? I prematurely speculate 25-30 minutes for RS

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

I think this is a great assessment and exactly what I would like to see happen for Tyler, Quinn, and Sheed. Also, great point about Tyler not being a great on-ball defender. I think that is something that often gets glossed over in the "Tyler is a great defender" talk. IMO, both Sheed and Quinn have the skills and body types to be more effective on-ball defenders than Tyler.

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I am enjoying the premature speculation and discussion. One thing I would add is that although Tyler was a very good off the ball defender all year and was not a very good on-the-ball defender at the beginning of the year, I felt that he improved quite a bit in this regard over the course of the year. I thought he was doing a much better job of preventing penetration at the end and/or my opinion is skewed by him doing a nice job on Erick Green from VT twice towards the end of the season.

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Originally Posted by Big Pappa

You basically swapped Dre and Tyler's minutes. I'm assuming your reasoning is similar to Kedsy's, but I don't think the splits of 22 for Dre and 10 for TT are realistic over an entire season. Over the last 6 games of the season Dre averaged 14.8 mpg and shot 3-23 from the field (2-17 from deep). Conversely, over the last 6 games averaged 31 mpg and 11-37 from the field (10-30 from deep).

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You are correct that Thornton's minutes increased as Dawkins' minutes declined. But I think that was a function of Cook and Gbinije not being ready and Dawkins slumping. When Dawkins went into his deep slump, Thornton was the only guy Coach K really trusted to join Rivers and Curry.

I don't think the same situation applies next yaer. Next year, I think Thornton is competing with Cook (healthier and now with a year's worth of experience) and Sulaimon (far more talented, probably better on-ball defense), while Dawkins is competing with Murphy and Sulaimon. So if Dawkins goes into a tailspin again, I suspect his minutes will go to Murphy or Sulaimon unless both guys aren't ready. Only then would I expect Thornton to take minutes from Dawkins.

Basically, if Cook, Sulaimon, and Murphy are ready to contribute 18+ mpg next year, I think it's Thornton that will lose his minutes.

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Originally Posted by CDu

I think we won't see much/any of Sulaimon at SF and we won't see much/any of Dawkins at SG. Sulaimon is a SG/PG, and Dawkins just doesn't have the ballhandling skills to play SG (especially since we don't have a Marshall-like PG). I also don't think Marshall will play any at PF.

I'd say more likely the following:

PG: Cook starts, Thornton and Curry back up
SG: Curry starts, Sulaimon backs up
SF: Murphy starts, Dawkins backs up
PF: Kelly starts, Hairston and Murphy back up
C: Mason starts, Marshall and Kelly back up



I'd say we're more likely to see the following minutes distribution:

edit by ACCBballFan- I have added last year's MPG in parenthesis.

Curry: 30 mpg (30)
Kelly: 28 mpg (26)
Mason: 28 mpg (28)
Cook: 24 mpg (12)
Dawkins: 22 mpg (22)
Murphy: 20 mpg (0)
Sulaimon: 20 mpg (0)
Hairston: 10 mpg (8.5)

Thornton: 10 mpg (21)
Marshall: 8 mpg (0)

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Rivers 0 (33)
Miles 0 (20.5)
Gbinije 0 (6)

So in place of the 60 minutes Rivers, Miles and Gbinije played, Duke has Sheed, Murphy, MP3 and any additional minutes for returning players.

You basically switched Tyler's and Quinn's minutes the latter from 12 to 24 and the former from 21 to 10 and that remains to be seen.

You allocated Miles 20.5 minutes 8 to MP3, 2 to Kelly and 10 to Alex.

You allocated Rivers 33 minutes 20 to Sheed and 10 to Alex and spread the other 3.

I think your approach of keeping Dre at 22 is better than the one you were respoinding to that had him at 10.

Other than probably overadjusting for Quinn from Tyler, I agree there will be some if Sheed can absorb some of that defensive intensity, seems pretty reasonable.

With Mason, Ryan and Seth sure starters, coach K has to decide whether to optimize the PG slot with Quinn and Tyler as you suggest or whether to leverage the senior experience

One alternate would be the lineup you proposed except to have Dre be the undersized WF starter and have Alex back up Dre and Ryan.

A second alternative would depoend on in addition to Dre whether Alex is more ready to star than Quinn or Tyler:

PG - Seth (Sr.) backed up by Quinn (Soph) and Tyler (Jr.)

SG - Dre (Sr.) backed up by Seth (Sr.) and Sheed (Fr.)

WF - Alex (Soph - redshirt) backed up by Dre (sr.) and Sheed (Fr.)

PF - Ryan (Sr.) backed up by Alex (Soph) and Josh (Jr.)

C - MP2 (Sr.) backed up by Ryan (sr.) and MP3 (Soph - redshirt)

Whether Dre comes to play every day will drive that decision.

Just to point out that mpg only takes into account the games a player actually participates in so Mike's six mpg is a bit misleading since he had 15 DNPs. If you count those as zero, the average obviously goes down considerably. Mike leaving doesn't open up 6 more mpg for somebody else.

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Originally Posted by Bluedog

Just to point out that mpg only takes into account the games a player actually participates in so Mike's six mpg is a bit misleading since he had 15 DNPs. If you count those as zero, the average obviously goes down considerably. Mike leaving doesn't open up 6 more mpg for somebody else.

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True, but whether it's 6 or 3 is not as key.

Losing Mike means Alex has no one his size to defend him in practice at WF, and defaults to Dre, Sheed or Tyler.

Having Tyler, Sheed, Josh and MP3 to push the seniors could be done in a couple different flavors:

Seth - Quinn
Dre - Sheed
Alex - Tyler
Ryan - Josh
Mason - MP3

Quinn - Tyler
Seth - Sheed
Dre - Alex
Ryan - Josh
MP2 - MP3

Alex defending Dre if Dre continues to stand around beyond the 3 point line does not help Alex develop as a WF Defender either. Tyler is not an offensive threat either, so perhaps Sheed is the quick WF that helps Alex learn to defend the WF slot.

So while Tyler may defend Alex in first set above, perhaps on the other end Alex defends Sheed and Seth/Dre defend defend Quinn/Tyler as they did this year.

So unless Duke can get Rodney Hood or Amile, though it may not show up as much in game substitutions, it has a pretty dramatic impact on development at practices.

The third flavor would be Dre on the second squad

Quinn/Tyler
Seth/Dre
Alex/Sheed
Ryan/Josh
MP2/MP3

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Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan

True, but whether it's 6 or 3 is not as key.

Losing Mike means Alex has no one his size to defend him in practice at WF, and defaults to Dre, Sheed or Tyler.

Having Tyler, Sheed, Josh and MP3 to push the seniors could be done in a couple different flavors:

Seth - Quinn
Dre - Sheed
Alex - Tyler
Ryan - Josh
Mason - MP3

Quinn - Tyler
Seth - Sheed
Dre - Alex
Ryan - Josh
MP2 - MP3

Alex defending Dre if Dre continues to stand around beyond the 3 point line does not help Alex develop as a WF Defender either. Tyler is not an offensive threat either, so perhaps Sheed is the quick WF that helps Alex learn to defend the WF slot.

So while Tyler may defend Alex in first set above, perhaps on the other end Alex defends Sheed and Seth/Dre defend defend Quinn/Tyler as they did this year.

So unless Duke can get Rodney Hood or Amile, though it may not show up as much in game substitutions, it has a pretty dramatic impact on development at practices.

The third flavor would be Dre on the second squad

Quinn/Tyler
Seth/Dre
Alex/Sheed
Ryan/Josh
MP2/MP3

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I see this as more likely, but it's just my opinion. I think Sheed would be better at the #3 than Tyler or Andre and that's without seeing him play one minute of college basketball. GoDuke!

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Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan

A second alternative would depoend on in addition to Dre whether Alex is more ready to star than Quinn or Tyler:

PG - Seth (Sr.) backed up by Quinn (Soph) and Tyler (Jr.)

SG - Dre (Sr.) backed up by Seth (Sr.) and Sheed (Fr.)

WF - Alex (Soph - redshirt) backed up by Dre (sr.) and Sheed (Fr.)

PF - Ryan (Sr.) backed up by Alex (Soph) and Josh (Jr.)

C - MP2 (Sr.) backed up by Ryan (sr.) and MP3 (Soph - redshirt)

Whether Dre comes to play every day will drive that decision.

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I see little likelihood of Dawkins playing much at SG this year. For one thing we have 4 guards who are either shorter, skinnier, or both. For another, I don't think we have the ballhandling to get away with a guy like Dawkins at the SG spot. That would put a TON of pressure on the PG to create offense for everyone else, and I'm not sure Curry, Cook, or Thornton is up to that. I think we're going to need to keep two capable ballhandlers on the court at all times, which pushes Dawkins to the SF spot. If we had Williams, Hurley, or Irving, maybe it would work. But not with the guys we have.

My rationale regarding the reallocation of PG minutes from Thornton (who didn't really play that much actual PG this year) to Cook is because I think Cook has the higher ceiling, and with a year of experience and health under his belt I'm hopeful he's ready to approach that ceiling. As you said, that remains to be seen. But I feel quite sure that one of Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon will start alongside Curry in the backcourt. If Dawkins starts, I believe it'll be at SF.

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Originally Posted by CDu

I see little likelihood of Dawkins playing much at SG this year. For one thing we have 4 guards who are either shorter, skinnier, or both. For another, I don't think we have the ballhandling to get away with a guy like Dawkins at the SG spot. That would put a TON of pressure on the PG to create offense for everyone else, and I'm not sure Curry, Cook, or Thornton is up to that. I think we're going to need to keep two capable ballhandlers on the court at all times, which pushes Dawkins to the SF spot. If we had Williams, Hurley, or Irving, maybe it would work. But not with the guys we have.

My rationale regarding the reallocation of PG minutes from Thornton (who didn't really play that much actual PG this year) to Cook is because I think Cook has the higher ceiling, and with a year of experience and health under his belt I'm hopeful he's ready to approach that ceiling. As you said, that remains to be seen. But I feel quite sure that one of Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon will start alongside Curry in the backcourt. If Dawkins starts, I believe it'll be at SF.

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I agree Quinn will show even more than the typical frosh to soph improvement because he is healthy this summer and was not last two summers. Whether he and Tyler swap minutes, not so sure given how much K praises Tyler but they may very well each play about 15 MPG rather than one 10 and hte other 20.

It's up to Dre the senior and to Alex the only properly sized WF to show they both deserve to start so much so that Seth is the PG over traditional PGs like Quinn and Tyler.

Alex, Ryan and Mason all being decent ballhandlers makes it possible to absorb Dre's average ballhandling capability wihtout leaving Seth by his lonesome in that category. This assumes he continues to improve his defense and does more than camp out at 3 point line on offense. It's now or never for Dre and I expect he responds as seniors often do.

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Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan

I agree Quinn will show even more than the typical frosh to soph improvement because he is healthy this summer and was not last two summers. Whether he and Tyler swap minutes, not so sure given how much K praises Tyler but they may very well each play about 15 MPG rather than one 10 and hte other 20.

It's up to Dre the senior and to Alex the only properly sized WF to show they both deserve to start so much so that Seth is the PG over traditional PGs like Quinn and Tyler.

Alex, Ryan and Mason all being decent ballhandlers makes it possible to absorb Dre's average ballhandling capability wihtout leaving Seth by his lonesome in that category. This assumes he continues to improve his defense and does more than camp out at 3 point line on offense. It's now or never for Dre and I expect he responds as seniors often do.

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I don't think the frontcourt guys are so good at ballhandling to offset the ballhandling limitations Dawkins has. But, as you said, it is time for him to step up. I just don't see SG being in the cards. We'll see though.

I see Tyler continues to get little love on this board let alone the respect that he’s earned. Every other player on this team is supposedly going to make a vast improvement over what they showed us last year, but not poor Tyler. No, Tyler is going to be relegated to the scrap heap. Maybe someone needs to tell him this so he can join Mike.

Dre hit two huge shots for us against Baylor and that seems to have gotten him a permanent, “Get out of Jail Free”, card, despite two lackluster seasons since then. Now Tyler has shown solid if not spectacular progress from his freshman year to his sophomore year, but everyone and their brother wants to write this kid off, everyone that is except for Coach K. Exactly what does this kid have to do to prove himself to numerous board members?

Since I wasn’t a board member during Wojo’s playing days I’m curious just how he was viewed by board members. Somehow I get the feeling that he was viewed in much the same fashion as Tyler is. Maybe it will take four years of constant improvement and pouring his heart and soul into each and every game for people to realize just how special this kid really is. Yes, pretty doesn’t define his game, but it wasn’t a word associated with Wojo’s play either.

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Originally Posted by ncexnyc

I see Tyler continues to get little love on this board let alone the respect that he’s earned. Every other player on this team is supposedly going to make a vast improvement over what they showed us last year, but not poor Tyler. No, Tyler is going to be relegated to the scrap heap. Maybe someone needs to tell him this so he can join Mike.

Dre hit two huge shots for us against Baylor and that seems to have gotten him a permanent, “Get out of Jail Free”, card, despite two lackluster seasons since then. Now Tyler has shown solid if not spectacular progress from his freshman year to his sophomore year, but everyone and their brother wants to write this kid off, everyone that is except for Coach K. Exactly what does this kid have to do to prove himself to numerous board members?

Since I wasn’t a board member during Wojo’s playing days I’m curious just how he was viewed by board members. Somehow I get the feeling that he was viewed in much the same fashion as Tyler is. Maybe it will take four years of constant improvement and pouring his heart and soul into each and every game for people to realize just how special this kid really is. Yes, pretty doesn’t define his game, but it wasn’t a word associated with Wojo’s play either.

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I think Wojo was a highly overrated player actually. He was scrappy and played hard (like Thornton) but he wasn't a great defender (in spite of winning a national defensive player of the year award), wasn't a great playmaker, and wasn't a good scorer. And note that those Wojo led teams won no ACC championships and made no Final Fours (despite having an embarrassment of riches surrounding him as a senior). As a junior, he had no competition for the PG spot, and as a senior he arguably should have been bumped for Avery. I suspect that this opinion will come with quite a bit of controversy, as players like Wojo tend to garner a wide variety of opinions.

I don't dislike Thornton. He's scrappy, smart, and unselfish. He certainly doesn't get cheated on effort, and he's a great communicator. Those are terrific qualities for a player. But he's very limited offensively, and as the season progressed that became more and more clear (teams were absolutely daring him to shoot). He's also not that good at on-ball defense except against bigger players (where his quickness isn't exploited). Against quicker players he was regularly at a disadvantage and as such got beaten frequently and committed a lot of fouls.

It may very well be that Thornton remains a starter next year. But I think for this team to make the jump, that needs to not be the case. He's a great guy to have on a basketball team, but I just don't feel like he's a great guy to play major minutes on an elite team.

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Originally Posted by CDu

I see little likelihood of Dawkins playing much at SG this year. For one thing we have 4 guards who are either shorter, skinnier, or both. For another, I don't think we have the ballhandling to get away with a guy like Dawkins at the SG spot. That would put a TON of pressure on the PG to create offense for everyone else, and I'm not sure Curry, Cook, or Thornton is up to that. I think we're going to need to keep two capable ballhandlers on the court at all times, which pushes Dawkins to the SF spot. If we had Williams, Hurley, or Irving, maybe it would work. But not with the guys we have.

My rationale regarding the reallocation of PG minutes from Thornton (who didn't really play that much actual PG this year) to Cook is because I think Cook has the higher ceiling, and with a year of experience and health under his belt I'm hopeful he's ready to approach that ceiling. As you said, that remains to be seen. But I feel quite sure that one of Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon will start alongside Curry in the backcourt. If Dawkins starts, I believe it'll be at SF.

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Agree regarding Andre at SG. Doable, but requires the guys at the 3 and to a lesser degree the 4 to be good/great ball handlers. K always starts the set with the PG passing or handing off to one of the 2 wing players. Can't do that with Andre, because of the lack of ability to dribble and get the play started. If Murphy is on the wing, that means he has to start the set, which I'm not sure if K would want. Alex is a good ball handler, so it could possibly work, just not ideal.

I am hoping for a slightly different look. I still like Tyler better as an off the bench defensive specialist defending the wing. I do agree with NSDuke that Tyler did improve his on ball defense later in the year though. He got in Green's grill for two entire games. He did actually improve there throughout the season.

My wish would be the following
PG- Starter: Cook, Backups: Suliamon, Curry
SG- Starter: Curry, Backups: Suliamon, Tyler, Andre
SF- Starter: Murphy, Backups: Andre, Tyler
PF- Starter: Kelly, Backups: Josh, Murphy, Mason
C- Starter: Mason, Backups: Marshall, Kelly

Interesting line ups I would like to see beyond my starting 5 of Cook, Curry, Murphy, Kelly, Mason are:

Cook, Suliamon, Murphy, Kelly, Mason (Playmakers, slashers, and shooters opening up space for the big guy down low, Suliamon defending the opposing PG, Cook defending SG)

Cook, Curry, Andre, Murphy, Mason (Playmaker, 2 deep threats, a slasher at the 4, space for Mason, sacrifices defense on the perimeter though)

Suliamon, Curry, Murphy, Kelly, Mason (Solid perimeter defense, size at the 3, 3 really good shooters, space for Mason)

Suliamon, Tyler, Murphy, Josh, Mason (Best perimeter defense, with a hopefully slimmer Hairston adding quickness at the 4, Mason patrolling the back line of defense)

Cook, Curry, Andre, Mason, Marshall (Got to have the brothers together at least once)

Suilamon, Andre, Murphy, Kelly, Mason (Big lineup, 3 good shooters and 1 slasher to open space for Mason. Murph and Kelly have to help with ball handling duties)

Cook, Curry, Murphy, Kelly, Marshall (Playmaker, 2 really good shooters, Slasher, Big Fella Send it in!)

One line up I really had hoped to see once in awhile and now won't get to goshdarnittohell:

Cook, Suliamon, Murphy, Gbinije, Mason

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Originally Posted by ncexnyc

I see Tyler continues to get little love on this board let alone the respect that he’s earned. Every other player on this team is supposedly going to make a vast improvement over what they showed us last year, but not poor Tyler. No, Tyler is going to be relegated to the scrap heap. Maybe someone needs to tell him this so he can join Mike.

Dre hit two huge shots for us against Baylor and that seems to have gotten him a permanent, “Get out of Jail Free”, card, despite two lackluster seasons since then. Now Tyler has shown solid if not spectacular progress from his freshman year to his sophomore year, but everyone and their brother wants to write this kid off, everyone that is except for Coach K. Exactly what does this kid have to do to prove himself to numerous board members?

Since I wasn’t a board member during Wojo’s playing days I’m curious just how he was viewed by board members. Somehow I get the feeling that he was viewed in much the same fashion as Tyler is. Maybe it will take four years of constant improvement and pouring his heart and soul into each and every game for people to realize just how special this kid really is. Yes, pretty doesn’t define his game, but it wasn’t a word associated with Wojo’s play either.

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Those are certainly fair comments. Tyler does a pile of things that do not show up in the box score. He has attributes you just can't teach. Heart, toughness, leadership. I like him better as a defensive specialist coming off the bench, and while I don't feel Tyler playing 25-30 minutes is best for the team, I don't think Tyler playing just 10 mpg is either. To maximize his effectiveness, I think he needs to get 18-20 minutes of games, where 25 is the high end, and 12-15 is the low end. He has to be in the rotation. I also think he can improve year over year.

If you asked me to state right now who will garner the most minutes next year between Andre and Tyler and get it correct, I have to say Tyler.

I guess what makes my opinion different from others is I think Tyler is more effective on the wing than at the point. He has proven he can guard wings that are bigger than him effectively. His trouble is with smaller, quicker, guards.

He is going to play, it's just a matter of how K chooses to use him.

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Originally Posted by Newton_14

I guess what makes my opinion different from others is I think Tyler is more effective on the wing than at the point. He has proven he can guard wings that are bigger than him effectively. His trouble is with smaller, quicker, guards.

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I actually agree with this. I don't feel like Thornton played much at PG this year. He generally played off the ball on offense, and frequently guarded SG and SF on defense. He is strong enough to guard SF and most SF aren't quick enough to take advantage of his lack of quickness.

The only issue I have with Thornton playing major minutes is that he's a HUGE liability on offense. If he can become a 40% 3pt shooter, maybe he can warrant minutes at SF. In that scenario, he could essentially fill the Dawkins role as a spot up shooter while playing better defense than Dawkins. But if I had to choose a PG for next year, ideally he would not be it.

It's funny this thing called perception. It seems that Tyler is viewed by many as a walking hack machine, however I took a quick peek at his stats for the year and he averaged only 2.8 fouls per game. Yet somehow people talk about him as if he's fouled out of every game he's suited up for us last year.

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Originally Posted by CDu

I don't dislike Thornton. He's scrappy, smart, and unselfish. He certainly doesn't get cheated on effort, and he's a great communicator. Those are terrific qualities for a player. But he's very limited offensively, and as the season progressed that became more and more clear (teams were absolutely daring him to shoot). He's also not that good at on-ball defense except against bigger players (where his quickness isn't exploited). Against quicker players he was regularly at a disadvantage and as such got beaten frequently and committed a lot of fouls.

It may very well be that Thornton remains a starter next year. But I think for this team to make the jump, that needs to not be the case. He's a great guy to have on a basketball team, but I just don't feel like he's a great guy to play major minutes on an elite team.

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I couldn't agree more with this assessment.

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Originally Posted by azzefkram

I couldn't agree more with this assessment.

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Trouble is we're far from an elite squad at this point IMO.

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Originally Posted by ncexnyc

It's funny this thing called perception. It seems that Tyler is viewed by many as a walking hack machine, however I took a quick peek at his stats for the year and he averaged only 2.8 fouls per game. Yet somehow people talk about him as if he's fouled out of every game he's suited up for us last year.

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Same thing happened with Nolan. Going into his Jr year people were panicking because Nolan was "foul prone". That seemed to be based on the Wake Forest home game his Soph season. I remember checking his foul rate for his Soph year and found it to be fairly low.

Tyler fouled a lot early in the year, but got much better towards the end of the year. He did foul out against Lehigh but that was mainly pure frustration combined with killing himself trying to win.

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Originally Posted by ncexnyc

It's funny this thing called perception. It seems that Tyler is viewed by many as a walking hack machine, however I took a quick peek at his stats for the year and he averaged only 2.8 fouls per game. Yet somehow people talk about him as if he's fouled out of every game he's suited up for us last year.

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He finished second on the team (to Hairston) in fouls committed per 40, averaging 5.3. This was by far the highest number for a guard on the team - every other guard except Dawkins was under 3.0 (Dawkins was at 3.3). Basically, Tyler fouled almost twice as often as Austin, Seth, and Quinn. He even fouled more often than Mason, Miles, and Ryan, and big men tend to be in foul trouble more often than guards. That may not be a walking hack machine, but that's a lot of fouling for a backcourt player.