**WARNING: SPECULATIVE, HYPOTHETICAL POST** Add large grain of salt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
pamtelp
It seems to me that DBR and some of the posters here are being awfully cavalier about FSU's potential departure. While it very well make not happen - probably not likely - this is a very dangerous situation for Duke. A weakening of ACC could spell disaster for Duke. Should FSU choose to leave, it would undoubtedly set off a domino effect that in the end would very likely severely weaken the ACC. And, as much as we want to believe Duke is special, in an economic world dominated by college football, we aren't an overly attractive get for other conferences. I don't want to be alarmist, but the next few weeks could hold the fate of Duke's position as an elite athletic program.
Next sentence aimed generally at the board, and not at pamtelp: If speculative hypotheticals on expansion angers or even annoys you, first, why are you reading this thread, and second, please stop now or your head will explode.
Now for the ESPN "Petyr "Littlefinger" Baelish" scenario where Notre Dame is the Iron Throne.
ESPN signs the ACC up to an improved, but still below market, contract for *ALL* football and basketball rights, but doesn't make things quite that clear initially, and let a wrongheaded rumor about basketball third tier rights perpetuate itself among the conference's football schools.
FSU and Miami (or Clemson), led by rich fans and unqualified board of regents members, initiate a move to the Big XII. The Big XII, knowing it now has an eponymous number of teams again, obviously and gladly accepts. ESPN gets additional first tier games in its Big XII contract and lock up Florida St.'s third tier rights for $8MM to $10MM per year, possibly through an LHN style network.
Whither the ACC? With the addition of Pitt and Cuse, the basketball is finally in 1982-2005 form. The conference is deep and strong and overtakes the Big East as the best basketball conference, going so far as to play the ACC tourney at MSG on occasion while the Big East tourney is relegated to Brooklyn. ESPN markets the hell out of the ACC to the point where it makes sense to have an ACC network, bringing more money to the conference.
Behind the scenes, and with the help of ESPN (natch) the conference commissioners have finally figured out the 4 team football playoff, and due to pressure from the PAC 12, the tournament only allows conference champions and Notre Dame *IF* Notre Dame is in the top 6. This scares the pants off Notre Dame considering how the past two dozen years have gone, and they are finally pushed to a conference. Big 10? Nope. To much bad history and animosity there. The Big XII? Please. The Domer fans don't want to have to go to Ames and Manhattan every year.
ESPN swoops in and offers Notre Dame a godfather deal to join the ACC, a "weak" football conference that they (in ND's opinion) can win most years, giving them at least an opportunity at the plus one playoff. This also pays huge dividends for the other ACC schools who in turn are willing to give ND a few extra rights around football to get the deal done. It also offers ND entrance into the best basketball and non-revenue sports league in the country. The ACC also picks up one of Louisiville or UCONN (I know, I know, but getting ND is worth it) to even it back out to 14 and further strengthen basketball.
ESPN gets -- full coverage of the best basketball conference, full rights to ND sports, FSU's third tier rights to further their efforts to market single school networks and programming. And they probably get the plus one playoffs and the NCAA tourney too because that's what Petyr Bae--- er... Dan Skipper has been planning the whole time!
Back on topic -- ACC contract backloaded?
Wetzel Article here.
Key paragraphs:
Quote:
The reality was bad, however. The initial bump in television revenue is actually just over $1 million a year, sources said, and a total in the $12 million range next season. The deal is back loaded so the bigger money comes in escalator provisions that, considering how broadcast rights keep growing, probably will be below market by the time any sizeable gains are realized.
That additional $4 million per school, per year? That won't come until 2021, nine years in, sources said.
Wow. Time value of money and all, if true, the ACC and ESPN's spin ends up sounding a little disingenuous. It doesn't excuse Haggard's behavior, but there is blood in the water (as I've seen mentioned elsewhere on the intertubes) now. If these potential moves are serious, this backloading piece will now be the bait that the boosters, and eventually the trustees, will use to get the support they need to move.