Well, I finally voted.
Dark Knight Rises
Avengers
Amazing Spider-Man
Men In Black 3
Brave
I was all set to vote for Prometheus, but when I saw the latest trailer it screamed creepy sci-fi horror at me and I think it will have real trouble finding a wide enough audience for that kind of movie to make the $225 mil or so that it is likely to take to reach the Top 5. Women and adults are not into those kind of movies. I also think it seems set to get an R rating (though Scott says he is trying to make it PG-13). An R-rated sci-fi horror film will not make $200+ million. Not gonna happen. From a boxoffice standpoint, R works fine if you are a raunchy adult comedy, but not if you are a gory horror film.
So, to the films I picked...
Dark Knight and Avengers are mortal locks. Anyone who did not pick them has already lost. It is just a fact people.
I think Avengers will be so good that it will excite people about comic book movies again and that will help Spider-man. I also think the Spider-man franchise is pretty much bulletproof. He is such a hugely popular pop culture character. There will be kids in Spider-man pajamas seeing this movie. The movie would have to be just godawful to not do $250 million and the buzz is fairly positive so I think this one will be fine.
MIB 3 is an established franchise, but (more importantly) it is Will Smith. Smith is the biggest star on the planet. He is popular with men and women, African-Americans and Caucasians, young and old. He could read the phone book on screen for 2 hours and the movie would make money. My only hesitation is that Will has not been on screen in like 4 years and some of his star may have faded. But, this is an established franchise with a large built-in audience as a result. I could be wrong about this one. The reviews could be bad (director Barry Sonnefeld has done stinkers in the past) and it could stall in the $180 mil territory, but it seemed like a safer bet than some of the other choices.
Finally, there is Brave. Never bet against Pixar! The trailers and clips for Brave look good and I like its position on the calendar as well as the competition around it. I think the strong female character will bring in the girls and the mystical, medieval fighting aspects will bring in the guys.
If I am wrong, I likely missed on one of the kids flicks (Madagascar 3 - trailers looked awful; or Ice Age 4 - comes late in the schedule and the franchise is more of an international phenomenon than a domestic one... these movies make 3x overseas what they do in the US). The other thing I might have gotten wrong is Snow White and the Huntsman, which is tracking through the roof with women and has enough of a mystical/action element to draw in the guys too. I sorta wonder if all the women who get dragged to Avengers by their husbands/boyfriends will want to go to Huntsman as payback. I am quite surprised that film has not gotten more support in our poll.
I don't think any of the rest are really strong contenders. They all seem to me to have a fatal flaw or two that limits the audience. Some of them are concepts that cannot draw a broad audience, some of them come at bad times that make it almost impossible to get to $225 million. At least, that is how I see it.
Of course, most of these films are pretty much unknowns at this point and we see every year how a well-reviewed, crowd-pleasing film can do much bigger business than expected. There could easily be a Wedding Crashers, 40 Year Old Virgin, Hangover, Bridesmaids, or Rise of the Planet of the Apes out there this summer that I have totally discounted but rises up to be a major boxoffice player. Heck, the odds favor that happening a lot more than they favor a reasonably predictable summer. That is why it is almost impossible to go 5-for-5 in this poll.
-Jason "Avengers could easily do $160+ million this weekend... I won't be shocked if it breaks records" Evans