Season tips off one month from today/Your expectations for 2012-2013

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Originally Posted by wk2109

I haven't seen Amile play much besides in highlight videos, but I get the feeling that any minutes he gets will be at the 4. It doesn't seem like he has the offensive game of a SF, so even if he does have the lateral quickness to guard SFs, would K put a non-perimeter-oriented offensive player at the 3?

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I comment here only on the wing/SF/3 spot for 2012-13.

Based on the staff's enthusiasm re Murphy's game and potential a year ago [preseason 2011-12], the persuasive commentary re Murphy of several EK posters in random threads, and my own eye test in a [very] few looks at Murphy [Elite 24 "game" and last preseason], I, like others, firmly assume Murphy will start at SF, and garner majority minutes there all season long. Say 20-25 mpg there, probably 25.

Backup? Shared by Jefferson and Sulaimon, situation-dependent. Neither is a perfect backup; nor, for that matter, is Murphy perfect, just yet. Sulaimon, says my and others' eye test, is quite good defensively, but he's probably about 6'3", and when he's at the 3, we're back to the "dreaded" 3-guard lineup. So, it's possible we'd be 3-guarding maybe 15 mpg, though that's unlikely.

Unlikely because Jefferson is a good candidate to get at least a few minutes at the 3. Not because he "is" a 3 - he's a 4 in the right-now-body of a "3 1/2" - but because Duke does not have several "classic" [6'6"-6'7"] SF's on this season's roster. I guess, indeed, Duke has none such classic SFs.

Rather, after last season's non-classic SFs in the persons of wing/2s Rivers and Dawkins [and even combo guy Thornton], this season K has 3 new non-classic SFs: Murphy, who is a little taller than classic and, who knows, maybe not as "fluid" as, oh, say, Grant Hill; Jefferson, taller still, weird game on O, definitely not perimeter-smooth, an experiment as a 3-D; and Sulaimon, shorter, D-rep, guilt-by-association of dreaded 3-guard-didn't-pan-out-last-season.

Although I lean to the view that Cook's vast improvement is the key to our season, the 3-spot will surely involve several interesting new experiments [i.e., players]. Murphy is closest to a non-experiment, and may be just right at the SF, 25 mpg worth. [And depending on recruiting, Murphy might wind up playing mostly 4 in 2013-14...] Jefferson and Sulaimon are the most logical backups, because there are no logical backups. They're at least more logical than Thornton, who is yet another very, very experimental 3-D.

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Originally Posted by sagegrouse

I see in Quinn an awful lot of Kyrie Irving. It didn't show up much last year because he was hurt and a freshman. But I hope he can be a point guard that just takes over a game. That makes Duke basketball a lot of fun.

But to make you feel better, if guys can play strong D, especially if they are long and lean, they will get lots of minutes at Duke.

sagegrouse

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I see some Kyrie in Quinn too, but Kyrie, believe it or not is actually quite horrible defensively as well. He was rated among the worst starting PGs defensively in the NBA last season. I don't expect that to continue, as he will surely improve, being so young, but it's worth noting. Quinn is no doubt the best ball handler and passer on the team. It's not his offense I'm worried about. I just don't think having him with Seth on the floor at the same time is a wise choice. Opposing guards would have a field day, getting in the paint as they please, and drawing crazy amounts of fouls on Mason.

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Originally Posted by jimsumner

None of those guys were seniors in 1978. In fact, Duke did not have a single recruited senior on that team.

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Oops. I misread your challenge question. I read over the senior qualification.

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Originally Posted by davekay1971

I could care less about the regular season and barely more about the ACC Tournament except as those games affect NCAA seeding. I expect a National Championship, and anything else (30 win season, ACC championship, etc), mean nothing to me. NCAA title, or at least Final Four, or else I'll immediately launch into a March postmortem about how K's recruiting, his bench usage, his end of game slowdown, and the exhaustion of the starters doomed us.

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If you're writing that in March make sure you don't forget the distraction of coaching Team USA, the lack of a tall big man coach and that Duke shot too many 3's.

Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.

But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".

As Charles Barkley said after that terrible Friday night last March "Duke and Missouri are playing small ball with small lineups. You're the big boys, start playing like big boys".

Kenny Smith said "Everybody's now has got guards. Ohio U has guards. Norfolk State has guards, Lehigh has guards. It's the teams that play big that do well in the tourney"

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Originally Posted by licc85

I see quite a bit of speculation that our top 6 guys in the rotation will be Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, and Rasheed. That's all well and good, especially on offense, where Ryan is a real matchup problem for most teams, and I believe Alex will fit that profile as well, but wow, that's a really weak top 6 on defense. At this point, I think we know what Ryan and Seth are as defenders. While Ryan causes many problems for opponents on offense . . . he causes almost no problems for them on defense. His lateral agility will never be close to elite, and the same goes for Seth. Seth is an amazing shooter and will probably lead the team in scoring, but he can't guard anyone.

If Ryan and Seth are both in the game with Mason, the other two players need to be defensive minded players. I think a huge part of this season's success depends on Quinn Cook's defense. Last year, he was terrible. Conceding the fact that he was hurt, but he was terrible. Duke had it worst defensive season, I believe, ever under Coach K. If Quinn hasn't improved significantly on D, I don't see how we can play him, Ryan, and Seth in the same lineup and not expect to get torched on D. I honestly think Rasheed may be the starter by the end of the year at PG and share ball handling duties with Seth.

Call me crazy, but I think the best starting lineup by mid-season is : Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, Rasheed. Quinn is a great point guard, but he's tiny, and having 2 guys under 6'1" with sub-par athleticism on the perimeter is just a recipe for disaster for any defense. Quinn is just going to have to get his minutes while Seth or Ryan is on the bench.

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One of the best posts of the thread imo. D is the key, but I have a bit different point of view, which from past posts I know some of you very much disagree with, and that is fine. I am hopeful and even optimistic that Quinn's work with Nolan over the summer has elevated his overall game, especially his D. I remember quotes where he knew he had to get much better at that aspect of the game, and I suspect he has been working very hard. But with Seth, I suspect he has hit his plateau on D, he is limited by low lateral quickness, and below average strength. At least he does have quicker hands than feet.

In watching various videos of Rasheed, I will be surprised if he doesn't capture an increasing amount of time in the guard rotation as the season progresses. By the end of the year, he might be playing the same number of minutes as Seth, or maybe even more in some games. He is bigger, stronger, has better lateral quickness, and can be an aggressive driver and finisher. From my point of view, a line-up of Quin and Rasheed will likely be at times the best option available at the guard positions.

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Originally Posted by ohiodukefan

Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.

But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".

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This really isn't true. In 2007, McRoberts started 32 of 33 games. Lance Thomas/Dave McClure/Brain Zoubek combined for 31 starts in 33 games. Nelson started 31 games at SF, and whatever his effective height (he had very long arms) he played much more like a forward than a guard. In 2008, the starters were Paulus, Henderson, Nelson, Thomas, and Singler, and both Nelson and Henderson played like small forwards (or big wings, however you want to phrase it).

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Originally Posted by NM Duke Fan

In watching various videos of Rasheed, I will be surprised if he doesn't capture an increasing amount of time in the guard rotation as the season progresses. By the end of the year, he might be playing the same number of minutes as Seth, or maybe even more in some games. He is bigger, stronger, has better lateral quickness, and can be an aggressive driver and finisher. From my point of view, a line-up of Quin and Rasheed will likely be at times the best option available at the guard positions.

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If you read any quotes from Coach K or the other coaches, you wouldn't be so confident about this. The coaches believe Seth is our best perimeter player and will be our leading scorer.

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Originally Posted by ohiodukefan

Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.

But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".

As Charles Barkley said after that terrible Friday night last March "Duke and Missouri are playing small ball with small lineups. You're the big boys, start playing like big boys".

Kenny Smith said "Everybody's now has got guards. Ohio U has guards. Norfolk State has guards, Lehigh has guards. It's the teams that play big that do well in the tourney"

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Duke certainly played small a lot in 2007 and 2008. But not as much as you recall.

In 2007 McRoberts, Scheyer, Nelson and Paulus all started between 29 and 31 games. But Henderson started 10, while Lance Thomas started 18 and David McCure started 11. Zoubek started twice. McRoberts, Thomas, McClure and Zoubek combined for 63 starts in 33 games. So, clearly Duke did not start four guards that season with any regularity.

McClure played 98 more minutes than Henderson that season and almost all of that was inside.

Scheyer came off the bench in 2008, as a sixth man. Paulus, Nelson and Henderson got the bulk of the starts. Some combination of Singler, Thomas, Zoubek, King and McClure played most of the game at the 4/5. That quintet averaged over 71 mpg and that factors in the games Zoubek missed with injuries.

Henderson averaged about 26 mpg that season. And I would not consider him a guard, not in 2008. Henderson is 6-4 but a strong 6-4, with an exceptional vertical. Duke used Henderson as a slashing wing. He had almost as many dunks as assists (45 to 56) that year and was never more than the third ball-handler.

Duke was under-sized for sure, as suggested by using the 6-6 McClure as a post. Injuries to Zoubek and the unexpected transfers of Eric Boateng and Jamal Boykin forced K's hand during that period. But neither Henderson nor Nelson played all that much at the 4, except in end-of-half and end-of-game situations.

Fairly presumptuous statement, Kedsy. I have read many quotes by the coaches in articles, having kept up with the program for decades now. I have also read quotes in the past about players and what role they are expected to play. Some of those projections pan out, others do not. Once again, D is a huge key, and K has also stated that a renewed emphasis on D is a key point of the coming year. I will be shocked if Seth has made major gains in that area of his game. Yes, he brings some nice 3 point shooting and it is important, and I am cheering for him as much as anybody. I have already stated my case for Rasheed getting increasing minutes. BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.

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Originally Posted by NM Duke Fan

Fairly presumptuous statement, Kedsy. I have read many quotes by the coaches in articles, having kept up with the program for decades now. I have also read quotes in the past about players and what role they are expected to play. Some of those projections pan out, others do not. Once again, D is a huge key, and K has also stated that a renewed emphasis on D is a key point of the coming year. I will be shocked if Seth has made major gains in that area of his game. Yes, he brings some nice 3 point shooting and it is important, and I am cheering for him as much as anybody. I have already stated my case for Rasheed getting increasing minutes. BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.

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Other than Ryan, Seth may be our only three-point shooter, and that alone will keep him in the lineup. But if you've read the quotes, K consistently has said he thinks Seth will be a star and our leading scorer and that our three seniors are our three best players. I don't claim to be an expert in K-speak, but the statements that don't "pan out" seem to tend toward statements like "Seth is our point guard" like last year, and not statements like "Seth is our best perimeter player" like this year.

I personally agree with you that Rasheed will get plenty of playing time, probably in the 25 mpg range, but I think those minutes will be spread among three positions, and not primarily at Seth's expense.

As for scoring, I expect Seth to be our leading scorer, but for Mason and Ryan to score plenty, kind of like 2010 when almost 70% of our scoring came from three players. Probably not quite so skewed this season, maybe only 60%.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

Other than Ryan, Seth may be our only three-point shooter, and that alone will keep him in the lineup. But if you've read the quotes, K consistently has said he thinks Seth will be a star and our leading scorer and that our three seniors are our three best players. I don't claim to be an expert in K-speak, but the statements that don't "pan out" seem to tend toward statements like "Seth is our point guard" like last year, and not statements like "Seth is our best perimeter player" like this year.

I personally agree with you that Rasheed will get plenty of playing time, probably in the 25 mpg range, but I think those minutes will be spread among three positions, and not primarily at Seth's expense.

As for scoring, I expect Seth to be our leading scorer, but for Mason and Ryan to score plenty, kind of like 2010 when almost 70% of our scoring came from three players. Probably not quite so skewed this season, maybe only 60%.

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Seth Curry is not an uber-athlete and he sometimes gets beat by guys who are. But he has a high-basketball IQ, a good sense of anticipation and very quick hands, which enables him to get lots of steals.

He's not Billy King on the defensive side of the ball. But, in the aggregate I do not think him a liability on defense, especially when he's not being asked to guard either an opposing point or an opposing wing forward.

FWIW, I very much agree with NM fan about feeding the post; indeed, feeding anybody. I expect a healthy Cook to be a significant upgrade in that area.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

If you read any quotes from Coach K or the other coaches, you wouldn't be so confident about this. The coaches believe Seth is our best perimeter player and will be our leading scorer.

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I have always thought that Nolan and Kyle were fantastic players and great defenders. I did not fully realize how incredible they must have been until this thread. Duke had the 8th rated defense in the country in their senior year, 2011. Seth started half the games that year and averaged 25 minutes per game, along with Mason and Ryan. I have read a few posts about how terrible a defender Seth is (aside/I tend not to ever describe any of the players I cheer for as terrible, seeing how they seem to be good kids, give a great effort, are much better than I could have ever dreamed of in whatever limited prime I had, and always seem to win over 20 games every year against a top ranked schedule/aside), so Kyle and Nolan must have been incredible to have guarded their own men and covered for this so-called terrible defensive player all year.

Or, maybe the team didn't play as well defensively as a team last year, and nobody looked great defensively as a result.

I have a theory that if team defense is understood a bit better this year, (three seniors will hopefully communicate very well) players improve their positioning and defensive play a bit, and there is a bit more size at one of the wing positions for half the game, the defense will look better this year. The players who played a lot of minutes when the team had the 8th ranked defense in the country might show that they are pretty decent defensive players and will help the new players who all seem to have potential to be solid defensively as well.

I am looking forward to the team being able to win games when they are not shooting well, though I expect the team to continue its very strong offensive play from the past few years.

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Originally Posted by jimsumner

But, in the aggregate I do think him a liability on defense, especially when he's not being asked to guard either an opposing point or an opposing wing forward.

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Do you mean you "do think him a liability on defense" or you do not think him a liability on defense? I assume the latter, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

Other than Ryan, Seth may be our only three-point shooter

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Disagree with this. I think Rasheed will be a very effective three-point shooter, and immediately serve to help soften the blow of losing our most potent gunner from a season ago. Andre Dawkins he may not be, but perimeter shooting was one of Rasheed's many strengths as a scorer at the high school level, and, for what it's worth, he did win the Gatorade three-point shootout at the McDonald's game in April. If the long line of past Duke winners of that competition are any indication of future deep range success -- Chris Collins, Trajan Langdon, Nate James, Shane Battier, J.J. Redick and Ryan Kelly -- then Rasheed is in great company.

Also, Alex Murphy's versatility as a pure inside-out swingman, with the ability to put it on the floor and create or hit from deep if space is given to him, will really work to stretch defenses. Maybe not as much this year, but by his sophomore or junior seasons, I think the Singler comparisons will gain major traction.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

Do you mean you "do think him a liability on defense" or you do not think him a liability on defense? I assume the latter, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know.

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Typo. I do NOT think he's a defensive liability.

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by Cameron

Disagree with this. I think Rasheed will be a very effective three-point shooter, and immediately serve to help soften the blow of losing our most potent gunner from a season ago.

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I hope you're right. Based on admittedly limited viewing, his shooting motion seems a lot less textbook than either Andre's or Seth's (or JJ's or Trajan's, etc.). We'll just have to wait and see whether he can still make that shot when the game speeds up (as it must during the transition from high school to college).

I'm very excited about Rasheed and his defensive presence. I'm not expecting him to be much of a shooter or a scorer his freshman year (although I do expect his offense to pick up his sophomore and later seasons). I'd be thrilled to be pleasantly surprised by Rasheed's offense this season, but as I said I'm not expecting it.

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Originally Posted by jimsumner

Typo. I do NOT think he's a defensive liability.

Thanks.

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Fixed in the original.

My wife works on Capitol Hill. Every once in a while someone leaves out a "not" in legislative drafting. It can be so embarrassing: "The Department of X shall provide..." v "The Department of X shall not provide..." Yikes.

-jk

i, like a number others here, am a bit concerned about a curry/cook perimeter from a defensive perspective (although I'll leave the hyperbole to others). the happy outcome is that we see big improvements from cook, but i think it would be relatively rare for a player to go from where cook was last year to where he needs to be. many folks are pointing to recovery from injury as a key reason to expect an improvement - i don't have a ton of confidence in that line of thinking. is it confirmed he still hadn't fully recovered by the second half of the season and that he was hindered enough to make what we saw not representative of quinn's actual capabilities?

i'm not terribly concerned on offense - i expect big things from what is easily one of the best front courts in the country (and the trickle down benefits for our other shooters). defense is the key.

because of my curry/cook defensive concerns, i am intrigued by the possibility of a sulaimon/curry back court as a way to address a weakness. unfortunately, that would put a lot of pressure on rasheed and there is a good chance he doesn't have the ball handling/distribution skill set to shoulder that load (too bad we don't have the greatest coach ever to evaluate these things). or maybe curry could channel his inner scheyer and... ah nevermind, already tried that.

Hopefully, noobody minds, but I wanted to rehash a post of mine from the Parker thread in here, because, well, it makes more sense. And, it deals with a recurring theme around here re: perimeter defense...

Popular opinion among many seems to be that, while Alex Murphy is going to provide us much needed help defensively at the three slot against opposing athletic wings, we are once going to get eaten alive by athletic penetrators ala C.J. McCollum on the perimeter. With the departure of Austin Rivers' dynamic offensive game, however, comes the dynamic defensive game of Rasheed Sulaimon. He stands at 6'4 and has elite quickness and the versatility to hold his own against any position in the backcourt defensively. He is just the type of player we lacked a season ago. It will just be a matter of finding a lineup that will allow for Rasheed to earn considerable time on the floor, as it would appear that he will be chiefly competing with Curry for burn, at least in terms of how the early lineup appears on paper.

I am confident that Coach K will devise a lineup that work to utilize our biggest assets as well as possible, and the arrival of Rasheed not only as a potent scorer on the wing, but more importantly as our best defensive guard since Nolan, is one of them. He will need to be on the court. Period. Quinn, Seth and Tyler, who is certainly no slouch defensively and probably our most tenacious on-ball defender a year ago, are too small and not versatile enough to stop elite guards from making their way to the basket. In an effort to combat this, any chance that Rasheed plays signicant time at the point? I heard rumblings of this in the spring, but not much since. He's a solid ball handler, crafty passer and excellent at creating his shot on the perimeter. Could it work?