2012 Bracketology

A little early, but when you are Joe Lunardi, I guess that's what you do.

He writes that this version is based on who Chad Ford expects to go pro early and who Ford expects to stay:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

He expects to do a drastic revision in mid-May after the in/out decisions are final.

UNC, Kentucky, Texas, Ohio State as the No. 1 seeds

Duke, Louisville, UConn and Syracuse as the No. 2 seeds

Seems reasonable (will UConn be a 2?), but I don't like the way he's got seven ACC teams ranked (by seeds):

1- UNC
2- Duke
6- Virginia Tech
8- Clemson
10- FSU
11- Miami
12 (play-in round) - Virginia

I like that he includes Virginia, even with the loss of Regan (who wasn't much of a factor), I think they are much better. But I think he's got Va Tech and Clemson much to0 high ... I can't see how either rate ahead of FSU.

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Originally Posted by Olympic Fan

Seems reasonable (will UConn be a 2?), but I don't like the way he's got seven ACC teams ranked (by seeds):

1- UNC
2- Duke
6- Virginia Tech
8- Clemson
10- FSU
11- Miami
12 (play-in round) - Virginia

I like that he includes Virginia, even with the loss of Regan (who wasn't much of a factor), I think they are much better. But I think he's got Va Tech and Clemson much to0 high ... I can't see how either rate ahead of FSU.

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Uconn is filled with question marks. Will they be able to play such good defense? will Lamb step into kembas shoes? Will oriakhi get better? and will the team play with the same effort after coming off a title year.

Anyway, those 3-5 teams in the ACC, I think will end up being very close. I'm not sure I can say at this point whether VT or FSU will be better. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from VT (clobbering us) and we also saw weakness. I think Joe expects them to be more of the former this year. I guess the point is that they have a lot more room to improve this year. Heck take out a couple of terrible losses (something another year of experience can CERTAINLY do) and a 6 seed seems very reasonable for VT. I do, though, agree that FSU will end up with a better seed than a 10 seed.

Tough to tell though, its april and we don't even know what all the teams will look like next year!

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Originally Posted by uh_no

Uconn is filled with question marks. Will they be able to play such good defense? will Lamb step into kembas shoes? Will oriakhi get better? and will the team play with the same effort after coming off a title year.

Anyway, those 3-5 teams in the ACC, I think will end up being very close. I'm not sure I can say at this point whether VT or FSU will be better. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from VT (clobbering us) and we also saw weakness. I think Joe expects them to be more of the former this year. I guess the point is that they have a lot more room to improve this year. Heck take out a couple of terrible losses (something another year of experience can CERTAINLY do) and a 6 seed seems very reasonable for VT. I do, though, agree that FSU will end up with a better seed than a 10 seed.

Tough to tell though, its april and we don't even know what all the teams will look like next year!

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The problem with talking about Va Tech in relation to their upside this year is that they will be a totally different team next year. They lose Macolm Delaney and Jeff Allen, their two best players, as well as two-year starter Terrell Bell.

Some posters have suggested they'll be bottom three in the league. I've been a defender, pointing out that the return of Dorenzo Hudson and JT Thompson will help a fairly good recruiting class assiminilate, but still ... a six seed? They didn't make the tournament last year year -- with a talented, senior laden team -- and now they're supposed to be a sixth seed (and third in the ACC) with a bunch of freshmen and role players moving into key roles?

Same for Clemson. I love the way Brownell finished the season, but I doubt they're an 8 seed aftr losing their two best players.

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Originally Posted by Olympic Fan

A little early, but when you are Joe Lunardi, I guess that's what you do.

He writes that this version is based on who Chad Ford expects to go pro early and who Ford expects to stay:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

He expects to do a drastic revision in mid-May after the in/out decisions are final.

UNC, Kentucky, Texas, Ohio State as the No. 1 seeds

Duke, Louisville, UConn and Syracuse as the No. 2 seeds

Seems reasonable (will UConn be a 2?), but I don't like the way he's got seven ACC teams ranked (by seeds):

1- UNC
2- Duke
6- Virginia Tech
8- Clemson
10- FSU
11- Miami
12 (play-in round) - Virginia

I like that he includes Virginia, even with the loss of Regan (who wasn't much of a factor), I think they are much better. But I think he's got Va Tech and Clemson much to0 high ... I can't see how either rate ahead of FSU.

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At what point does he and so many others jump off the Texas bandwagon. What have they done, ever, to make anyone think they are capable of a deep run and avoiding a mid to late season collapse? Talented yes but we've seen this before.

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Originally Posted by Olympic Fan

The problem with talking about Va Tech in relation to their upside this year is that they will be a totally different team next year. They lose Macolm Delaney and Jeff Allen, their two best players, as well as two-year starter Terrell Bell.

Some posters have suggested they'll be bottom three in the league. I've been a defender, pointing out that the return of Dorenzo Hudson and JT Thompson will help a fairly good recruiting class assiminilate, but still ... a six seed? They didn't make the tournament last year year -- with a talented, senior laden team -- and now they're supposed to be a sixth seed (and third in the ACC) with a bunch of freshmen and role players moving into key roles?

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Obviously Duke is going to be very good, you always are... but it made me chuckle a little to read the above (accurate) description of VT and replace a couple names to describe the Blue Devils. Though, of course, you're starting from a higher place. Just found it interesting.

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Originally Posted by shoutingncu

Obviously Duke is going to be very good, you always are... but it made me chuckle a little to read the above (accurate) description of VT and replace a couple names to describe the Blue Devils. Though, of course, you're starting from a higher place. Just found it interesting.

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You have a point, but you're more correct when you note that Duke is starting from a higher place. Lunardi here is indicating he expects VT to take a significant jump up, while predicting Duke to have a drop from consensus top team preseason to a #2 seed after losing two great seniors and Kyrie, and adding a great recruiting class, ranked much, much higher than VT's.

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Originally Posted by shoutingncu

Obviously Duke is going to be very good, you always are... but it made me chuckle a little to read the above (accurate) description of VT and replace a couple names to describe the Blue Devils. Though, of course, you're starting from a higher place. Just found it interesting.

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Duke is starting from a higher point, has more depth, experience, and talent returning, and a better recruiting class. The difference is that Lunardi is predicting a VT team that hasn't made the tournament in years to not just make the tournament but to easily make the tournament.

That being said, we certainly have a lot of question marks. I think our #2 seed from Lunardi is more a reflection of the idea that almost every other team also has a lot of question marks.

There is also the caveat that a preseason bracketology is in conflict with the original concept for bracketology, as no team has any sort of resume for 2012. In the early days of Bracketology, Lunardi didn't even start until the second half of the season. But now that he's an ESPN wonk, I guess he's been coerced to "expand."

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Originally Posted by CDu

In the early days of Bracketology, Lunardi didn't even start until the second half of the season. But now that he's an ESPN wonk, I guess he's been coerced to "expand."

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Well, people are talking about college basketball and clearly pay attention. The NFL draft gets way overblown for exactly the same reason...because people with nothing else going on eat it up.

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Originally Posted by Olympic Fan

A little early, but when you are Joe Lunardi, I guess that's what you do.

He writes that this version is based on who Chad Ford expects to go pro early and who Ford expects to stay:

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If anyone is looking for a practical definition of the term, "one-trick pony," Joe Lunardi is the epitome. All he can do are brackets; we read his blog recently, and it was the most slapdash, uninformed piece of junk I have ever seen. He does brackets -- not very well, except for the end game -- and he, therefore seeks to do them 24x7x52 -- even when they are utterly meaningless -- like now, when no one knows what the rosters are going to be next year.

sagegrouse

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Originally Posted by sagegrouse

If anyone is looking for a practical definition of the term, "one-trick pony," Joe Lunardi is the epitome. All he can do are brackets; we read his blog recently, and it was the most slapdash, uninformed piece of junk I have ever seen. He does brackets -- not very well, except for the end game -- and he, therefore seeks to do them 24x7x52 -- even when they are utterly meaningless -- like now, when no one knows what the rosters are going to be next year.

sagegrouse

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but people read them, and they get page hits...and that's all that matters to espn and joey brackets.

Rather come to this site. First, of all Joe Lunardi said Irving had hired an agent. Never found anything that said he had hired an agent. Second, isn't it way to early to be predicting next year's brackets.

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Originally Posted by pless55

Rather come to this site. First, of all Joe Lunardi said Irving had hired an agent. Never found anything that said he had hired an agent. Second, isn't it way to early to be predicting next year's brackets.

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I was thinking the same thing, about predicting 2012 brackets. I was just looking at my brackets from this tournament 2011. I like to give basketball pondering a good break, and focus on spring sports. (Lacrosse). Hope Duke makes the Final 4 again. Loved Baltimore last year, and seeing Duke win that National Championship, also.

DBR keeps me informed with all the recruiting, and anything "Breaking News." And of course, I listen to Sports Radio.

As all Duke fans know, "It only takes ONE TOE" to change the course of a season. And so TOE it was.

Just put DUKE in that Final 4 bracket! :D