Originally Posted by
tommy
Thanks for bringing this up Oly. Love stuff like this.
But when I'm looking at the numbers, I'm not seeing that Derek is ahead of Rose's pace. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.
Jeter is 37 years old now, and will turn 38 in June. He's in his 18th season. If you remove his rookie year where he only played 15 games and had 12 hits, and just focus on his full seasons, he's averaged 192.25 hits per year prior to this year. At the outset of this year, he needed 1168 hits to tie Rose, which at the rate of 192.25 per year, would mean it would take him 6.07 years to tie him. This would take Derek to age 43 or 44.
But that's if Jeter can continue to bang out almost 200 hits per year all the way to age 43 or 44. Rose, who averaged 183 hits per year not counting his last, abbreviated year (1986), had the following number of hits in his 40's years:
At age 41 he had 172 hits
age 42: 121 hits
age 43: 107 hits
age 44: 107 hits
age 45: 52 hits
So Rose, not surprisingly, really started to decline as he got into his early 40's. Modern training methods and good genes (who knows?) may help Derek push his decline out a bit, but continuing to average 192 hits a year until age 44, as would be required, seems pretty unlikely to me, and I'm not sure how you'd say he's ahead of Pete's pace at this point.
Did I misunderstand you or am I missing something?