Sorry-- I know this has been asked and answered already, but assuming only Rivers and MP1 leave, I thought we only have 1 scholly left? If we can keep Mason and still add two more players, this becomes an interesting new dynamic...
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Interim being the key word though. I'm sure that if Knicks were given an opportunity to hire Jackson or maybe Calipari starting this week, they would jump on it. There aren't that many marquee coaches out there and many of them are either tied up with big contracts or simply happy where they are. When you have someone sitting on your bench that you know isn't going to be in the long term plans, why wait to grab your coach?
As to the OP, I would definitely say grab Bazz if you can. He's a great talent and from what I've read/seen a great person also. He may create a bit of a bench backlog but {g} and Murphy should only get better practicing with him. The MP2 vs Parker decision is a little trickier. I think that MP2 would definitely be a bigger asset to the teams success next season but Parker should have a bigger long term impact. He should a) be around for more than 1 season which helps the team in '13 and '14 and b) help with the "big man" image issues. Ultimately, I think that my preference hinges on Bazz's decision. If he comes to Duke then with MP2, I think we have a legitimate shot at a F4 or NC next year. If he goes elsewhere, I think we will be good but not realistically a F4 caliber team so we might be better off having Parker and letting him develop for '13.
I'm not sure about Amile. I think that he will be a very good college player but not necessarily an impact player next year. I also see a lot of overlap in skill set with Murphy so I'm not sure where he fits in. I guess it comes down to his expectations. If he's willing to come in and bide his time with likely few minutes as a freshman (or can we even dream about a red shirt?) then the more the merrier. Of course depending on the other two guys (and MP2) there may not be an extra scholarship available.
We have the following players on scholarship next year at the moment: Cook, Curry, Dawkins, Gbinije, Hairston, Kelly, Murphy, Plumlee, Plumlee, Sulaimon, and Thornton. That leaves 2 scholarships available. If Mason leaves, we have 3 scholarships available.
That said, I'd be shocked if we land multiple additional freshmen recruits. I'll be surprised if we land any additional freshmen recruits, actually. If Mason stays, I don't think we'll be in play for Parker. If Mason goes, we might be in play. I doubt we'll have 13 recruited players next year.
It was discussed on the board here not too long ago within one of the gigantic "next year" oriented threads (which was pretty much every thread including in-game ones). I believe it was in reference to an interview (don't know if it was post game or not) some time around the ACC tourney. I'll try to find it and see if there was a link, but it seemed like a few posters in a row referenced that statement, so by wikipedia logic that made me think it was true.
Anyway, come to think of it, have we ever had a large (>= 3 players contributing each game, including redshirt seniors) senior class in the K era and not been good?
Off the top of my head I can think of the teams...
-Scheyer, Z, Lance in '10
-J.J, Sheldon, Lee, Dockery '06
-McLeod, Price, Wojo '98
-Hill, Lang, Clark '94
-Koubek, McCaffrey, Palmer '91 (I want to call McCaffrey a senior, but didn't he only play 2 years? I don't remember why this was)
-I can't remember much roster-wise of the 1980's teams, except for the '86 team which had Alarie, Bilas and Dawkins
I'm sure I'm missing something in those rosters, or maybe missing a year all together, but all those teams did well. Granted those teams had either great non-senior players like Ferry, Amaker, Brand, Battier, Avery, Singler and Smith, or great individual senior players like Dawkins, Hill, J.J., Sheldon and Scheyer, so I don't know if the comparison to the '13 team is that relevant. I just though it was interesting.
The question was, "Didn't K say just before the end of the regular season, 'We're going to be really good next year.'"
I thought I heard the announcers report that; it was the Wake Forest game; I posted it; then someone else came along and said, "No, that was Jeff Bzdelik, not Coach K being quoted by the announcers." Anyway, that's my story, and I am sticking to it.
So I dunno...
Of course, if it were Bzdelik, he may feel differently after losing three players in the last two weeks.
sagegrouse
McCaffrey was in Hurley and T. Hill's recruiting class and he transferred after his sophomore year to Vandy because he thought that his best chance of making it in the nba was as a pg and he knew that he wouldn't be playing that position at Duke. He went on to be very successful at Vandy and won the sec POY his senior year but I don't believe he was drafted or ever played a game in the nba. At least he got 1 ring before he left.
McCaffrey transferred to Vandy after his sophomore year. He wasn't in the class of 1991.
And the answer to your question (as is the case for pretty much any "when was Duke bad" question) is 1995. We had Parks, Meek, and Blakeney as seniors playing significant roles. Things didn't go well. Of course, that was the year Coach K was out for most of the year.
Best case?
Lehigh, Xavier, Baylor, and Kentucky, along with most other teams in the field of 68, are all found guilty of lack of institutional control and are forced to vacate this year's NCAA tournament wins, leaving Duke alone at the top of the mountain as this year's national champion. Couple that with Calhoun vacating his title from last year and Duke holds a three-peat of national titles.
Seeing this, Shabazz Muhammad, Tony Parker, Amile Jefferson, Jabari Parker and Julius Randle all commit to Duke and we have an embarrassment of riches going forward as the NCAA imposes no limit on athletic scholarships for basketball. Every commit stays for four years and the one-and-done rule is abolished. Duke wins four national titles and establishes itself as the dominant power in college basketball for all of eternity, defeating UNC in the championship game for two of the titles (the other two years UNC loses in the championship of the NIT to a now-defunct Kentucky team). John Calipari cries himself to sleep after the Knicks refuse to offer him an NBA job. Roy Williams cries himself to sleep because the local tanning salon closed.
All is well.
__________
I can dream, can't I?
Funny how I conveniently forgot about '95, but it's debatable whether that team is considered a K team (no doubt had K players though). I guess I should of also made it more clear that when I meant "good" it was in terms of Duke's ridiculously high standards. Basically, I meant that either we were considered a title contender for most of the year, or made a good NCAAT run. Otherwise almost every year is a good year.
I didnt read back through the thread.. I assume the point here is we will have several seniors nxt year and thus be a very good team - Curry, Dawkins, Mason ? (thats a big IF), Kelly - so I guess at least 3 seniors. I hope your point holds true. I see Kelly playing a major role and hope for more improvement from Curry and Dawkins. Got to have more drive and pull up game, not just stand still shooters.
Without Mason Plumlee returning, our low post game becomes a puff of smoke. I believe that Mason will benefit from another year of college ball. When the dust settles, his draft position will not be particularly favorable. Too many other bigs who have proven their NBA value. I think Mason's game translates well to the NBA. He has yet to demonstrate the ability to consistently dominate and incorporate his dynamic skill set enough. He's a good passer. He can block shots. His ability to deliver points in the paint independant of dunks from passes is underdeveloped. A lot more Quinn Cook would help Mason. Mason needs to help Mason.
I think he has more to offer the NBA than Tyler Zeller. He has not proven that. Zeller is more consistent and evolved within his own skill set. Mason has a better upside. He needs to trust his instincts and be more committed to carving out his niche as a low block beast. The team needs to reward him with the ball. Mason did not always receive the ball and collect points with the opportunities he was given. Shooting percentage must go up. Free throw percentage improved. Keep that trending upwards to at least 70%. Defensively, the coaching staff must figure out a gameplan that lets Mason clean things up better. Between Mason and Kelly, we should block at least 6-8 shots a game.
I don't have the warm and fuzzies that "Bazz will come to Duke. Unless the rules change, I believe he'll go to Kentucky. Calipari has finally achieved the ultimate validation, and 'Bazz fits perfectly into that philosophy. Fait Accompli.
K's body of work cannot be touched.
Calipari's approach works. He pulls it off. His team more than delivered. They played as a team and had the players to dominate. And they did. My hat's off to him. His approach reveals what is broken in the relationship between the NCAA and the NBA. Until that gets adjusted, Calipari will dominate. There's not a lot of coaches who could pull that off. Nobody has succeeded the way he has over the last few years. Not K. Not Roy. Not the Kansas coach. Not Tom Izzo. Not Jim Boeheim. Nobody.
Tony Parker, probably not coming to Duke. I know K has dug hard for him. I would love to see a front line of Parker, Kelly, and Mason. That's a front court that brings the team into the Final Four. I'm not believin.' The team most likely to dominate in the ACC next year is NC State.
I think Oriaki and Ziegler are intriguing. If we could get one of them, that would be a win.
Amile: Silent G and Murphy might preclude his joining the Blue Devils. Suddenly, Kentucky is going to have a lot of open spots. Fait Accompli.
If Mason returns we'll be ok. If he goes, than ouch! Look out. Our front line will be threadbare. If we thought this year's team defense lacked, I shudder to think what this year's Carolina team would do against Kelly, MP3, Murphy, Hairston, and Silent G. Yikes!
We have the best basketball coach around. K is right there with the top ten hoops coaches all time any league. But does his approach fit and deliver now? K has brought our program so much success and his stature within the game is second to none.
Kentucky has the horses and delivered. Calipari has had the horses and not delivered. Will Kentucky repeat? Most likely not. I'm not sure that K's system can keep us elite, meaning to continue the level of success he has achieved over his career getting to the sweet sixteen and regular final four appearances within today's current college basketball climate.
Kyrie Irving's recruitement was a success. Austin Rivers' recruitement was a success. Kyrie became injured and the team wasn't able to gel at the critical time. No fault to anyone. Over the course of the season, Austin became a better basketball player in important ways, but the team wasn't able to gel at the critical time. Kelly's injury should not have translated into a first round loss to Lehigh. We had the horses, but we came up lame. Let's figure out how to win at the critical time. That's late in the season with everything on the line.
I would accept whatever additional infusion of skill that we can capture. 'Bazz, Tony Parker, Amile, Ziegler, Oriaki ... Let's bring that on with Mason and see what happens.
I hope:
A) Mason returns and with a fierce attitude to improve for next years draft.
B) Shabazz Muhammad commits to Duke (Starting lineup of Cook, Seth, Bazz, Kelly, and Mason. Tyler, Alex and Andre off the bench)
C) Amile Jefferson commits to NC State
D) Tony Parker goes to Gtown
I want Amile at State because I want State to be good again and challenging us and unc year in and year out and this would help. I do not care really where Parker goes just not Unc or UK.
Here's a quote from the end of the GoDuke.com season summary linked on the Main Page --
I like it! I like it!Quote:
Looking Ahead
While things were uncertain for Duke heading into this season, the Blue Devils will have a much more established roster coming into 2012-13. With the only losses expected to be Miles Plumlee and Rivers, Duke will return 10 players including four of the top five scorers from this season.
sagegrouse
I don't know if that's GoDuke just not speculating on possible decisions or just staying optimistic or if they really know something. But I guess they could have just as easily said something like "returning at least 9 and possibly 10 players if Mason returns" and "loses only Rivers and Miles and possibly Mason." So it sounds nice, for sure.
In February and early March I was pretty confident Mason would come back. That confidence was shaken a bit with the erroneous/misleading tweet by Jay Williams. But as time progresses my confidence that he'll return grows again. Unless he gets a promise to go in the 1st round or absolutely hates life in college (which I don't think is the case), it just doesn't seem to make a ton of sense to leave.
I totally agree with this. With Mason and Bazz we have "enough" players. Any additional guys we bring in would likely just ride the bench. Honestly I'd rather save the scholarship for next year and take our chances with Jabari Parker, Julius Randal, Anthony Barber, etc. (though we'll have plenty of scholarships available with four seniors graduating).