A Triple Crown win is a "foregone conclusion"

[Bluedawg]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.


"I feel that he will do it, I feel like it's actually a foregone conclusion. To me, I just see the horses he's in with and I see our horse so I expect him to win this race. ...

http://www.newsobserver.com/1577/story/1089486.html

Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

[Bluedog]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.



Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

ha, well, unlike other sports the trash talking doesn't do much since the horses don't understand English, so there's no psychological detriment to the guarantee or added pressure on Big Brown. If Big Brown's injury is truly healed, then, yes, I think it's in the bag. He has just been so dominant in all of his races. The other horses will obviously be fighting for Place and Show. Right now the odds are 1/3! That's right. Not 3/1, but 1/3. Casino Drive has the second best odds at 7/2.

[DevilHorse]

Big Brown will be the best horse in the race but...

- will his jockey be smart enough not to move too soon, which has sunk the triple crown tries of several other two-leg failures

- the quality of the Belmont horses will be better than the Preakness, and any traffic issues will be less than in the Derby (fewer horses, bigger turns and longer straightaways).

- the preparedness edge may skew away from Big Brown in that he hasn't had the 5 week rest that several of the horses who skipped the Preakness will have had. Imagine the tired legs in the 3rd day of the ACC tournament vs. the 2nd day of an NCAA pod with the day to rest (note reference to qualify on the main board); the day off in between makes all the difference in the last quarter, err.. fulong.

- will his feet be OK.

He looks good, but we've seen invisible 800 lb gorillas mysteriously appear on the back of Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, and Spectacular Bid (I don't buy the safety pin), so anything can happen.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Bluedawg]

ha, well, unlike other sports the trash talking doesn't do much since the horses don't understand English, so there's no psychological detriment to the guarantee or added pressure on Big Brown.

But jockeys do...trainers do. Horses feed off of that energy. The relationship between the jockey and horse is huge.

[jacone21]

Barring injury, I think Big Brown will take it with ease. I wasn't so sure until I saw the overhead shot of his breakaway at the Preakness. You can see it at about 1:45 here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMoxifieuoI

He's a pretty special horse.

[Bluedawg]

He looks good, but we've seen invisible 800 lb gorillas mysteriously appear on the back of Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, and Spectacular Bid (I don't buy the safety pin), so anything can happen.

Larry
DevilHorse


I think Spectacular Bid's problem was more due to "a questionable ride by jockey Ronnie Franklin" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectacular_Bid) than anything else, which is why i said the "trash talk" could affect the jockeys and therefore affect the horses.


Imagine the tired legs in the 3rd day of the ACC tournament vs. the 2nd day of an NCAA pod with the day to rest (note reference to qualify on the main board)

I debated where to put this and since the main board carries sports of various types i thought it might slide by.

[davekay1971]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.



Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

It's so in-the-bag that I just took out a second mortgage on my home, emptied the kids' college funds, cashed out my IRA, and put it all on Big Brown. Financial genius, baby...

[Lavabe]

I think Spectacular Bid's problem was more due to "a questionable ride by jockey Ronnie Franklin" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectacular_Bid) than anything else, which is why i said the "trash talk" could affect the jockeys and therefore affect the horses.

Larry, Bluedawg, davekay1971,
Like I suspect Larry, I was there that day. To say that Ronnie Franklin didn't ride properly was an understatement. 1:11 & 1/5 6 furlong time! [Note: you can find the race replay on youtube]. When Marshall Cassidy called the pace "TORRID," that was that. To say Bid had no kick was an understatement. To say that Buddy Delp was talking big on this horse was an understatement.

Pin, shmin.:mad:
Ronnie Franklin in a questionable state prior to the race. Fine.:mad:
No one told us these two things before the race.

That day stunk. Pure and simple.

So no, davekay1971, I won't put the 2nd mortgage on it, not at those odds. I've seen too much happen. Will he win it? Most likely, but the bet is not with Big Brown at low odds.

And yes, I lost money on that 1979 race.:mad:

Losing cheers,
Lavabe

[YmoBeThere]

I'm in DK'71's camp...working on as much leverage as I can get for the sure thing!

Haha, what will they be paying, 1:10? That's good isn't it? HAHAHA!

[Lavabe]

I'm in DK'71's camp...working on as much leverage as I can get for the sure thing!

Haha, what will they be paying, 1:10? That's good isn't it? HAHAHA!

I've never seen a morning line below 1:5 ... but I'll defer to DevilHorse on that one. Expect 1:10 or 1:20 odds with a HUGE minus pool. Everyone will want to say, "I bet on a Triple Crown winner." You put $2 down, you get back $2.10.

And what'll happen when the exacta with Casino Drive pays less than $4 for a $2 bet?

[blublood]

Big Brown's trainer all but guaranteed a win.


Is this standard pre-race mind game/trash talking or do you think it is really in the bag? If so, did the horses who may have a chance to challenge him just sit this one out? Are they handing it to Big Brown?

That's a ridiculous statement to make and BB's trainer knows it (or at least, should know it). Nothing is *ever* in the bag with a horse race. He could stumble out of the gate. He could get ganged up on down the stretch (and in fact, this is very likely). He could grab the bit and run away with it. All these things have nothing to do with how good Big Brown is or the quality of the rest of the field, it's just luck and horse racing.

[blublood]

Actually, on further perusing the article, I'll change my mind from "rash" to "what a freaking idiot." If you have money, bet everything you've got away from Big Brown - the racing gods just love to issue smackdowns on stuff like this. :D

[Lavabe]

Actually, on further perusing the article, I'll change my mind from "rash" to "what a freaking idiot." If you have money, bet everything you've got away from Big Brown - the racing gods just love to issue smackdowns on stuff like this. :D

The late Grover Buddy Delp teased the racing gods, and look what happened to Spectacular Bid.

You don't tease the racing gods!

Nothing is certain.

Having said that, I have a lot more faith in an older Kent Desormeaux than I ever had in the young Ronnie Franklin.

Hmm... what's the status of "Denis of York?"

Cheers,
Lavabe

[Lavabe]

At 2-5 morning line odds, Big Brown starts from the rail. Casino Drive is the second choice, and Denis of Cork (apologies for previous spelling mistake on this horse's name) is third choice.

ESPN has a list of all the post positions here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/news/story?id=3425557

Cheers,
Lavabe

[YmoBeThere]

Anyone have thoughts on an exacta for tomorrow's race. I will actually be in a casino where I can put down a bet...

[Lavabe]

Anyone have thoughts on an exacta for tomorrow's race. I will actually be in a casino where I can put down a bet...

Casino Drive had to skip today's scheduled workout because of a bruised left hind hoof. This may drive up the Big Brown/Casino Drive exacta, but it'll still be way low.

As a third choice at 12-1 morning line, I'm liking Denis of Cork more and more. He had a monster close in the Derby. If he gets bet down some, I might consider the BigBrown/DofC exacta wager.

But it's your money.

Assuming Big Brown wins, we may have an odd situation in which the place price for the horse that comes in second will be more than the win price on Big Brown.

Check for scratches when you wake up. We'll see what happens with Casino Drive's left hind hoof. If he's scratched, I wouldn't bet this race.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[AtlBluRew]

I read today that Big Brown will be running with a patched hoof, because it is partially cracked. Sounds dangerous to me. And it sounds cruel to run the horse under those circumstances.

[YmoBeThere]

And it sounds cruel to run the horse under those circumstances.

PPB...

[Lavabe]

I read today that Big Brown will be running with a patched hoof, because it is partially cracked. Sounds dangerous to me. And it sounds cruel to run the horse under those circumstances.

I'll trust veterinarians on the scene to make an opinion on the danger level. To clarify for folks, Big Brown had a quarter crack. A description of the exact injury is provided in this AP report on espn's (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/news/story?id=3428969)web site. Please note the assessment of the horse:
"The injury is having about as much luck at stopping Big Brown as the competition. Several veterinarians characterized the quarter crack as innocuous and said racing in Saturday's grueling 1½-mile Belmont shouldn't pose an additional risk to the strapping bay colt."

Veterinarians & hoof specialists have assessed that his hoof is "stronger than ever." On the video in the espn link, assessment by the quarter crack/hoof specialist is that Big Brown is "100%." By all reports I've seen, the injury has healed well, and has been given plenty of time. Most folks would have more of a problem if the crack had just appeared the day before the race. This appeared much earlier. Add in solid workouts, and a 1 1/4 mile Friday morning gallop, and the horse seems fine from all reports.

If you have any inside information, please post before the race.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[YmoBeThere]

A much more thought out and reasoned answer than my juvenile PPB comment...

[DevilHorse]

OK, here's the scoop..

Casino Drive has been scratched!
The hurt foot (back left) evidently is too poor to run on. The triainer was heard to mutter something to the effect of "I didn't know you had to run an obstacle course to take a shower in this country!?:mad:"

Don't worry about the patch on Big Brown's foot. That is probably the strongest part of his hoof! Ian McKinlay is considered the best hoof specialist in the business (I'm not kidding, he has been doing this exclusively for 20 years) and he says that the foot is fine and there'll be no problems. The big concern about these types of feet is that they can get infected. Big Brown's foot was allowed to stay dry and was only patched yesterday to give it the best chance to be dry, and it was very good according to Ian. No problem for the horse going forward medically, and no problem mechanically for the horse to use for the race.

You'll be getting 5% interest on your money in the show pool if you want to cash the ticket. I still have my $2 win ticket on Affirmed and on a losing $2 win on Spectacular Bid. I was taking the GREs during Seattle Slew's year, so no ticket there. If you want to keep the ticket, bet show on Big Brown; if you want to cash it, bet show. It should probably pay the same :) or not.

If you're looking for Exacta and Trifecta horses, the logical animals are Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork. Both horses have quality distance horses on their dam side Sunday Silence and Unbridled respectively; both are Storm Cat line horses, which are not notable distance horses, but have had their days in the sun (Tabasco Cat). I'd bet a Big Brown/Denis of Cork exacta.

Larry
DevilHorse

[YmoBeThere]

That is the direction I was headed, DH. Part of the whole bet thing is to say I had money down on a Triple Crown winner...

[Lavabe]

I still have my $2 win ticket on Affirmed and on a losing $2 win on Spectacular Bid.

... I burned my ticket on the Bid.:mad:

[throatybeard]

1) This horrifying child singing makes me want to cut my wrists. I guess he's the next Clay Aiken.

2) I wonder how the history-setting nasty weather (record highs for June 7, nasty haze, high humidity) will affect the horses and the jockeys.

[DevilAlumna]

anyone care to join me in snrubchat?

And it's antidisestablishmentarianism -- come on, it's not that hard to spell....

[Bob Green]

Hooray!!! Affirmed is still the last horse to win the Triple Crown.

[EarlJam]

anyone care to join me in snrubchat?

And it's antidisestablishmentarianism -- come on, it's not that hard to spell....

What's the link??

-EarlJam

[throatybeard]

The DVM they interviewed said the disgusting heat could have been a factor.

[EarlJam]

The DVM they interviewed said the disgusting heat could have been a factor.

They're also reporting Big Brown heard that kid singing New York, New York and got violently ill just before the race. Another factor.

-EJ

[jimsumner]

Assuming the horse is okay, it's hard not to take some pleasure in this just because Dutrow is such an unpleasant sort.

Oh well. Now I can forget about horse racing until next May.

[Lavabe]

The DVM they interviewed said the disgusting heat could have been a factor.

I saw the last Triple Crown winner Bob. And having said that, I am sad. Mostly because Big Brown wasn't there.

He swerved breaking out of the gate, got caught in bad traffic around the first turn, I believe got clipped in the heels two times, bumped his way out to a wide position around the turn, and was lackluster the rest of the way. I am glad Desormeaux pulled him up.

One thing to see is just how difficult it was for the first quarter mile. Look at how rank Big Brown was. No noticeable limp, but the traffic was horrible around that first turn. I believe he was spent before he could settle down.

Heat could be a factor, but I'll defer judgment until the vets examine him.

DK71: you okay?

No cheers,
Lavabe

[Lavabe]

1) This horrifying child singing makes me want to cut my wrists. I guess he's the next Clay Aiken.

2) I wonder how the history-setting nasty weather (record highs for June 7, nasty haze, high humidity) will affect the horses and the jockeys.

1) Did they cut the song before he was done? I kind of like the days when they used to sing "Sidewalks of New York." Be thankful for one thing: David Archuletta didn't sing it today! But imagine, with all the stars on Broadway, they pulled up this kid?

2) Accurate thought, throaty!

[Bob Green]

I saw the last Triple Crown winner Bob.

I was at Churchill Downs when Affirmed won the 1st leg of the Triple Crown in 1978.

[mph]

1) This horrifying child singing makes me want to cut my wrists. I guess he's the next Clay Aiken.

If I had never used the fast forward feature before, this moment alone made all of the money I've spent on DVR service worth it.



Assuming the horse is okay, it's hard not to take some pleasure in this just because Dutrow is such an unpleasant sort.

My thought exactly. I was torn between wanting Desormeaux to win and wanting Dutrow to lose.

[DevilHorse]

Another reminder of how tough it is to win the triple crown.
Amazing.

Big Brown really seemed bothered for 3/4 of the race. The horse that was second on the back stretch was carrying him way out to Ussery's Alley. I wonder if Kent or the horse were frustrated by that.

Tiznow is slowly making some hay as a decent sire; not a high density of good runners though IMHO.

Too bad the winning connections got only the last 5 minutes of the broadcast to get ther accolades.

Glad that Big Brown is not (yet) considered to be injured. If he bled, that is not at all uncommon; but this would be a heck of a time for that to have happened.

Very interesting to hear that the Governor of NY is the grandson of the blacksmith for Upset (the only horse to beat Man O War). Now THAT is impressive. For New York State to have what would appear to be a friend in the Governor's chair is an unexpected windfall.

I'll hold out for a Triple Crown winner with a pedigree that makes me happier.

Larry
DevilHorse

[billybreen]

What's the link??

-EarlJam

It's stickied at the top of the EK.

[YmoBeThere]

Well in an anticlimatic ending to my betting story the casino I was at doesn't allow betting on NY state race tracks. I guess it saved me some money.

[blublood]

1) This horrifying child singing makes me want to cut my wrists. I guess he's the next Clay Aiken.


I agree. "Horrifying" is an apt adjective!

Well, you knew the racing gods would never let Big Brown win after all the smack that got talked, but wow, that was surprising. My mom, who is an endocrinology nurse (in people, not horses) had some interesting observations as follows:

1. The horse was not sweating very much, even though it was, like, 93 degrees.
2. Big Brown's last steroid injection (which I still cannot believe is legal to do to thoroughbreds) was April 15th and then, according to what's been said, was abruptly discontinued. You never do that with patients. Even a tiny amount of hormone has such a profound effect on a patient's endocrine system that it has to be eased back gradually.
3. The horse was also being treated for that quarter crack with most likely some antibiotic and other anti-inflammatories, adding to the soup of medicines in his system.

Her conclusion, which seems reasonable to me, is that BB's body had gotten used to the anabolic steroids and the resulting adrenal suppression. So when he was taken off them all of a sudden, the two weeks or so that he may have actually been "clean" was not enough time to get all that stuff fired back up again. The fact that he was so extraordinarily calm in the post parade, not sweating or lathering, and ran what seemed to be a very lackadaisical race may have just been a combination of bad luck - or it may have been a symptom that his body didn't have enough adrenaline to run a mile and a half high-stakes race.

What's incredible to me is that although there have been hundreds of articles blaming the track, the heat, Kent Desourmeaux, etc. the glaringly obvious question of the effects of steroids isn't even brought up. Dutrow claims that they "don't have that much effect" - well, if that's the case, then why are you medicating the animals? I mean, obviously you intend to get some benefit.

[TillyGalore]

2. Big Brown's last steroid injection (which I still cannot believe is legal to do to thoroughbreds) was April 15th and then, according to what's been said, was abruptly discontinued. You never do that with patients. Even a tiny amount of hormone has such a profound effect on a patient's endocrine system that it has to be eased back gradually.

Wouldn't his performance at the Preakness have been effected by the "abrupt" stoppage of the steroid?

I think the biggest reason Big Brown finished last is that his training had been scaled back due to his injury. You can't expect an athlete to perform at the same level if you have to scale back his/her training due to an injury.

[Lavabe]

Her conclusion, which seems reasonable to me, is that BB's body had gotten used to the anabolic steroids and the resulting adrenal suppression. So when he was taken off them all of a sudden, the two weeks or so that he may have actually been "clean" was not enough time to get all that stuff fired back up again. The fact that he was so extraordinarily calm in the post parade, not sweating or lathering, and ran what seemed to be a very lackadaisical race may have just been a combination of bad luck - or it may have been a symptom that his body didn't have enough adrenaline to run a mile and a half high-stakes race.

What's incredible to me is that although there have been hundreds of articles blaming the track, the heat, Kent Desourmeaux, etc. the glaringly obvious question of the effects of steroids isn't even brought up. Dutrow claims that they "don't have that much effect" - well, if that's the case, then why are you medicating the animals? I mean, obviously you intend to get some benefit.

Minor points:
1) He is usually calm in post parades, but he was extremely rank in the first furlong. At several points you can see him fighting Desormeaux. Lackadaisical? Not really sure if I agree with that assessment.
2) Also, several hours before the race, you could see him bucking unusually in the holding area. The handlers made a point to kick out the ABC cameras until he settled down. The ABC/ESPN commentators discussed this during their telecast.
3) Big Brown ran on the legal antibleeding medication Lasix, which reportedly can cause dehydration in a horse.
4) The last injection of Winstrol was reported to be April 15. I am unsure how that jibes with the timetable you implied in your post. I am also unsure what are the differences in the steroid's effects in a horse vs. a human.
5) The news reports described one of the primary equine effects of Winstrol is to increase appetite and weight.
6) The trainer was advised to reduce the horse's usual vitamin supplements. I am unsure how that fits into anything.

It's the Belmont. ANYTHING can happen. And, as you said earlier, don't tease the racing gods.;)

Cheers,
Lavabe