Top Grossing Movies Summer 2008

[Udaman]

See Poll

[pfrduke]

The nice thing about voting first is seeing that I'm in 100% agreement with the total voting populace. :D

[snowdenscold]

See Poll

The first Ironman trailer I saw had me fascinated up until the point I realized it was a comic book movie and that we was going to have special abilities. A fast-talking arms dealer captured in the desert by terrorists intrigued me - then it just looked stupid after that.

I'm also highly worried about IJ4. I absolutely love and grew up on the first three - and Raiders and Last Crusade are both in my top 10 favorite movies. I wasn't that impressed by the trailer. Part of it looked too digital/fake and the other part just seemed to be making cheesy references to the fact that Harrison Ford is a lot older now. I know they can't ignore it, but still...

[YmoBeThere]

I went with Narnia, figure the fundamentalist will be out in force trying to decide who to vote for in the election. Haha, have I sent us to the PPB with that line?

[DevilAlumna]

I saw a preview for Hancock last night, and although I love Will Smith, the trailer showed one of the worst special effects stunts since Indiana Jones III. I hope they redo that segment before June....

[Lord Ash]

Uhhhh... do you guys not know what Hancock is?

Will Smith. Superhero movie.

It will be HUGE.

[hc5duke]

Uhhhh... do you guys not know what Hancock is?

Will Smith. Superhero movie.

It will be HUGE.

Looks like I'm the only other person who picked it. That's my dark horse pick. Trailers looked pretty good. I can't see any of the other movies (of the ones I didn't pick) doing that well.

[DevilAlumna]

Uhhhh... do you guys not know what Hancock is?

Will Smith. Superhero movie.

It will be HUGE.

Yeah, so the longer trailer looks better than the 30-sec commercial, but it still shows some lousy special effects.

http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0448157/trailers-trailer-vi2041708825

The whale-throwing is just lame. lame.

But yeah, (lack of) quality won't stop a lot of people from seeing it. Will Smith. Superhero. HUGE.

[bluebutton]

Totally unexcited about all the movies. Guess I'll save my money and buy video games?

Wouldn't mind if one of them surprised me, but I'll let the rest of the board go watch and report back.

Last summer I was excited about--
Die Hard
Bourne Ultimatum
Transformers (only because I had old connections with it)
Ratatouille

This summer--
The Dark Knight: motorcycle looks interesting, but that's it
Ironman: Husband might go with work, but I'm not interested
Speedracer: Didn't watch the anime, not interested unless it gets rave reviews
Indiana Jones: Didn't watch the 1st 3 --too many spider webs
Chronicles of Narnia: Really liked the books as a kid, didn't think the first movie adaptation was all that hot
Wall-E: I like Pixar, but Cars and Ratatouille disappointed

Haven't heard of the rest

[snowdenscold]

... worst special effects stunts since Indiana Jones III.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Take it back.

[hc5duke]

Wall-E: I like Pixar, but Cars and Ratatouille disappointed

Blasphemy!

[JasonEvans]

Uhhhh... do you guys not know what Hancock is?

Will Smith. Superhero movie.

It will be HUGE.

Agree. I put it in my top 5 with:

Iron Man - First big movie of summer = long legs and intial buzz of being first. First big movie of summer is always among the biggest of the summer, look it up.
Narnia - church folks plus kids plus early release plus sequel to big hit = huge hit.
Indiana Jones - no brainer. Remember that Spielberg is doing this so it will be high quality even if Ford looks ancient and the trailers look weak so far.
and Wall.E - I loved what I have seen from the trailer and the 5 minutes sneak peak I saw recently. Looks strong and not much animated competition.


-Jason

[ArkieDukie]

I saw top grossing and immediately started thinking about what movie had the most potty humor. Or maybe there's a slasher movie coming out this summer?

[Lord Ash]

Totally unexcited about all the movies. Guess I'll save my money and buy video games?

Last summer I was excited about--
Die Hard
Bourne Ultimatum
Transformers (only because I had old connections with it)
Ratatouille


You were excited over TRANSFORMERS, from the WORST director of ALL TIME, and Die Hard, but you aren't excited over INDY?! Bizarre. Straight. Up. Bizarre.

Wall.E I think is a little too off-kilter to do well. It may well be brilliant, but I don't think it will be a top five grosser.

I went with the Kung Fu Panda film, as it is very family friendly...

Hancock, because Will Smith and superhero is big, regardless of it being any good...

Ironman, because I think people are actually excited for it, altho GTA will hurt it and I didn't take that into consideration when I voted...

Batman, because it is Batman and the morbid appeal will generate a lot of interest...

and of course Indy. Because, duh, it is INDY.

[ArkieDukie]

You were excited over TRANSFORMERS, from the WORST director of ALL TIME, and Die Hard, but you aren't excited over INDY?! Bizarre. Straight. Up. Bizarre.

Wall.E I think is a little too off-kilter to do well. It may well be brilliant, but I don't think it will be a top five grosser.

I went with the Kung Fu Panda film, as it is very family friendly...

Hancock, because Will Smith and superhero is big, regardless of it being any good...

Ironman, because I think people are actually excited for it, altho GTA will hurt it and I didn't take that into consideration when I voted...

Batman, because it is Batman and the morbid appeal will generate a lot of interest...

and of course Indy. Because, duh, it is INDY.

Sadly, I think you're right about Batman. That's why I voted for it as well. I'm in the minority on one of my choices: Get Smart. I thought the previews looked funny.

[JasonEvans]

Sadly, I think you're right about Batman. That's why I voted for it as well. I'm in the minority on one of my choices: Get Smart. I thought the previews looked funny.

The previews do look funny and I think Steve Carrell is great casting here... but comedies rarely crack $200 million (except animated films, which this is not). It is tough to get the repeat business neccessary for huge box office when you are a comedy, at least that is how Hollywood has worked for a while.

I think Get Smart will be the top grossing live-action comedy of the summer, but I will be quite surprised if it cracks the top 5.

--Jason

[Bluedawg]

I have not seen any of them, and most likely won't due to time and $$. However, Iron Man has some really cool trailers, if this Batman was as good as the first it gets my vote, Indiana Jones is always a hit, Get Smart looks like a lame copy which means it will sell, and my last two are pure guesses.

[JasonEvans]

So far, 46 people voted in this poll and only 29 of them picked Iron Man. Well, the reviews are very good and I'll be stunned if it does not do $100 million this weekend.

In other words, I think 17 people are about to feel very foolish.

--Jason "$200 million is the magic number, in my mind, to be top 5 this summer... and Iron Man will get there easy" Evans

[BCGroup]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Take it back.

I rewatched that the other day and it reminded me how much I enjoyed it. I think Indiana Jones will do well this summer, at least partly for the nostalgia. And I'm banking on the fact that Spielberg knows how to pull of a great movie.

[bjornolf]

Interesting question. What do we think will do well, NOT what movies do we like.

I'm not sure I agree about Iron Man being such a smash. I am a comic book/video game/cartoon geek, and proud of it, so I'm excited for it. However, I'm not sure a lot of people will be. He's a more obscure hero, and with so many big ones recently like spiderman, superman, batman, and hulk (x2) coming out recently and in the near future (heck, there are what, FOUR of them on this list alone?), I feel like the market's getting saturated, especially when you throw in things like daredevil and elektra etc. (My wife is a perfect example of this. She has been watching the superhero movies over the years, but has slowly cooled on them as they continued to pile up. She only watched the third Spiderman because she'd invested so much time watching the first two.) Oh, and then there are the ridiculous superhero movies like "My Super Ex-Girlfriend". I'm juiced for Iron Man, but I'm not sure if it will be top 5 this summer. Besides, Robert Downey Jr. is not the draw he used to be. Of course, it IS the first big action flick of the summer, so that will help it a bit. Also, with ticket prices what they are, I'm not sure $200M will get you top 5 this year. I hope it does well, but I'm just not convinced.

I went with Hancock for the Will Smith/superhero factor (there's another superhero movie for you!). I think Indy and Mummy (I think the two Mummy movies did over $200M) will do well for somewhat similar reasons (to each other, not to Hancock). I went with Batman (another comic book hero! I think batman begins did over $200M too) for the Heath Ledger death thing. I went with Narnia for the family thing, though I wasn't sure whether to go with that or Wall-E, but hit Narnia at the last second (it's predecessor hit almost $300M I think). Anyway, I know little about this stuff, but a LOT of people I've talked to have lost some interest in the superhero movies thanks to all the recent ones.

Just my $0.01.

[billybreen]

I'm not sure I agree about Iron Man being such a smash. I am a comic book/video game/cartoon geek, and proud of it, so I'm excited for it. However, I'm not sure a lot of people will be.

The high reviews are helping. Word is that it will make between 75-85 million (http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/wkd-prediction-iron-man-a-strongman/) this weekend. That doesn't meet Jason's estimate, but according to that article it's a really good haul.

[Udaman]

I said it wouldn't be in the top 5. This was based on my thoughts about the comic book (never really liked it), and some of the previews. Plus I wasn't sure if kids would flock to it.

Saw it last night - and I was dead, dead wrong. This movie is an absolute lock for top 3, and might end up the highest grosser. The audience was mostly adults last night, but everyone loved it. It is funny. It is unpredictable. The acting is superb and the action is fun. Trust me, this one will have a very, very small drop off next weekend - because a ton of people (like me) will talk it up to those unsure.

When all is said and done it easily tops $200M, and might top $300M.

I will definitely see it again. Most fun I've had in the theater in a long, long time.

[JasonEvans]

I saw it too. I loved it. My wife liked it a lot. My kids (boys, 8 and 11) could not stop talking about it.

It was almost too light at times -- there is plenty of humor including some great stuff between RDj and the computers he works with -- but just when you think it is maybe taking the silly a bit too far, it throws some great action sequences at you and really pulls you out of your seat. I was not a huge fan of the Jeff Bridges character, he was a tad too cartoonishly evil, and I really did not connect with Gwenyth's character very much. But, I am nit picking here. RDj is the guy who carries this thing and he is fabulous. The visual effects are really nice while not being overbearing. And, I found the plot/character motivations simple enough to understand but also tremendously compelling and even somewhat believable.

The really big star to come out of this film though is director Jon Favreau. This is a guy who is better known as an actor ("you're the guy from Swingers, right?") but he has a deft touch at storytelling as a director. As far as I am concerned, the guy is 4-for-4 as a director ("Made," "Elf," "Zathura," and now "Iron Man") and he is now going to be one of those directors who can get whatever they want for their next project thanks to the inevitable success of this film. He handles the high-tech action in this film so much better than other recent cgi-driven action films it is not even funny. As opposed to a frantic frenzy of fighting, we get something easier to watch and understand. He also does not forget the characters and dialog when the action is on the screen.

It does look like Iron Man will come up short of $100 million for the weekend but I agree with Udaman that it will have real legs. I dunno if it gets to $300 million, there is just a lot of competition this summer, but it should do $250+ .

By the way, I hope all comic book nerds stick around until after the credits are done. What happened took me out of my seat with a cry of "Awesome!!!!" but left my wife and kids saying, "Huh? What was that?" The credits are long and you will feel like a doufus waiting for them to finish. There will probably be 20-30 other people who also stick around. Again, if you are a comic book fan, you will get it and enjoy it -- I promise!!

--Jason "the new trailers for Hulk and Skull both looked good -- much better than earlier trailers. I also liked the new Dark Knight trailer" Evans

What a wonderful flick.

[JasonEvans]

So far, 46 people voted in this poll and only 29 of them picked Iron Man. Well, the reviews are very good and I'll be stunned if it does not do $100 million this weekend.

In other words, I think 17 people are about to feel very foolish.

--Jason "$200 million is the magic number, in my mind, to be top 5 this summer... and Iron Man will get there easy" Evans

Suck it!! Despite industry predictions of about a $75-80 weekend, Iron Man made it to the magic $100 mark... barely. It made $100.8 (actually 104.3 if you count the Thursday night sneaks that decreased some demand for the film over the weekend).

--Jason "I enjoy being right... it does not happen enough ;)" Evans

[billybreen]

Suck it!! Despite industry predictions of about a $75-80 weekend, Iron Man made it to the magic $100 mark... barely. It made $100.8 (actually 104.3 if you count the Thursday night sneaks that decreased some demand for the film over the weekend).

--Jason "I enjoy being right... it does not happen enough ;)" Evans

Including overseas, Iron Man has already crossed $200M. I'm trying to determine whether I'll peel myself away from GTA long enough to see a matinée or whether I should just help contribute to a strong week 2.

[Lord Ash]

Uda, how did the TRAILERS turn you off? I thought they were some of the best I've ever seen... got me interested, showed off a bit, but didn't give away or repeat over and over big money lines.

[Udaman]

They were just special effect stuff (flying, blowing things up...the Iron Man in full setup)....it made me think this was going to be The Transformers, only with a superhero not as well known or liked.

It didn't show the humor and acting skills that would be on display, that's for sure.

Incidentally, I'm now thinking that Narnia may struggle. If the movie is a rough as the previews, I'm not sure if there will be a lot of repeat viewings among the little ones.

[billybreen]

They were just special effect stuff (flying, blowing things up...the Iron Man in full setup)....it made me think this was going to be The Transformers, only with a superhero not as well known or liked.

It didn't show the humor and acting skills that would be on display, that's for sure.

Incidentally, I'm now thinking that Narnia may struggle. If the movie is a rough as the previews, I'm not sure if there will be a lot of repeat viewings among the little ones.

Maybe I just love RDjr and comic books, but I was very excited by the trailers. They showed enough humor and enough of the personal interaction to make it obvious how well he works as Tony Stark.

[dball]

"The Love Guru" is the Meyers project this summer. Looks silly but might draw Austin Powers fans.

[JasonEvans]

"The Love Guru" is the Meyers project this summer. Looks silly but might draw Austin Powers fans.

Worst trailer ever.

Seriously. I like Mike Meyers and I like Austin Powers but that trailer made me want to stick sharp objects in my ears and gouge out my eyes. There was not a single second of it that made me even begin to crack a smile. That film will bomb at the boxoffice.

--Jason "the fact that the sport at the center of the film is hockey will hurt too" Evans

[ugadevil]

I saw it too. I loved it. My wife liked it a lot. My kids (boys, 8 and 11) could not stop talking about it.



I have a question about Iron Man. As someone who has no background or knowledge with comic books, can you still follow the story? Would I still appreciate it, even though I'm not familiar with the original character?

[billybreen]

Worst trailer ever.

Seriously. I like Mike Meyers and I like Austin Powers but that trailer made me want to stick sharp objects in my ears and gouge out my eyes. There was not a single second of it that made me even begin to crack a smile. That film will bomb at the boxoffice.

--Jason "the fact that the sport at the center of the film is hockey will hurt too" Evans

This looks like a prototypical vanity project of a comic who has lost his voice, relevance, and humor (for the canonical example of this phenomenon, see "Murphy, Eddie"). I'll be surprised if the RT score is >20% unless the trailer was grossly misleading.

[NashvilleDevil]

I have a question about Iron Man. As someone who has no background or knowledge with comic books, can you still follow the story? Would I still appreciate it, even though I'm not familiar with the original character?

Uga I have zero knowledge of Iron Man and was able to follow along just fine. What a great way to start the summer movies.

[JasonEvans]

I have a question about Iron Man. As someone who has no background or knowledge with comic books, can you still follow the story? Would I still appreciate it, even though I'm not familiar with the original character?

My wife and kids haev never seen an Iron Man comic and had no idea of any of the Iron Man backstory. The film is very easy to follow and the script is quite accessible for non-action/superrhero fans.

Look, you don't score mid-upper 90s% on Rotten Tomatoes without making a great film that everyone can enjoy. I won't be at all shocked when Iron Man turns up on dozens of prominent Top Ten lists for the best films of 2008.

--Jason "been a long time since I could say without any hesitation that a movie was worth 9$ per ticket -- Iron Man qualifies" Evans

[Clipsfan]

--Jason "been a long time since I could say without any hesitation that a movie was worth 9$ per ticket -- Iron Man qualifies" Evans

It's $11.50/ticket here, and still worth it.

[Exiled_Devil]

My wife and kids haev never seen an Iron Man comic and had no idea of any of the Iron Man backstory. The film is very easy to follow and the script is quite accessible for non-action/superrhero fans.

Look, you don't score mid-upper 90s% on Rotten Tomatoes without making a great film that everyone can enjoy. I won't be at all shocked when Iron Man turns up on dozens of prominent Top Ten lists for the best films of 2008.

--Jason "been a long time since I could say without any hesitation that a movie was worth 9$ per ticket -- Iron Man qualifies" Evans

But as someone who is wondering when the Avengers movie comes out and if the (leaked) cameo ending means we are heading towards a Civil War type plot line, would I like it? ;) *

Exiled

* Translation: would comic fan boys like it?

[billybreen]

But as someone who is wondering when the Avengers movie comes out and if the (leaked) cameo ending means we are heading towards a Civil War type plot line, would I like it? ;) *

Exiled

* Translation: would comic fan boys like it?

If there's a sequel where we see the Hulkbuster, I'll be happy.

[hc5duke]

It's $11.50/ticket here, and still worth it.

It's $10 here, but CostCo has Regal/Edwards tickets for $7.50/each (http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11066651), and the minimum # you have to buy is 5. No restrictions on what movies you can watch, though I think it's like $5 extra for IMAX.

[JasonEvans]

But as someone who is wondering when the Avengers movie comes out and if the (leaked) cameo ending means we are heading towards a Civil War type plot line, would I like it? ;) *

Exiled

* Translation: would comic fan boys like it?

The Avengers movie is coming in July of 2011 with Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, and Thor. All of those characters will have individual movies over the next few years leading up to The Avengers film.

--Jason "comic book movie heaven!!" Evans

[billybreen]

The Avengers movie is coming in July of 2011 with Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, and Thor. All of those characters will have individual movies over the next few years leading up to The Avengers film.

--Jason "comic book movie heaven!!" Evans

More like pop-culture heaven. How did we get from 20 years ago, when 9 year old uber-nerd me was a social outcast playing with my computer, collecting comics, and reading LoTR, to the point where all of those things are mainstream? Heck, even the pinnacle of geekiness, pen and paper RPGs, has become huge business with WoW and the like.

[JasonEvans]

I think we have our first real bust of the summer. I have not seen the official boxoffice figures yet, but the Friday numbers for Speed Racer were just awful.

It did $5.8 million on Friday, only good for 3rd place behind "What Happens in Vegas" ($6.7 mill) and Iron Man ($15.3 mill). I suppose the fact that Speed is PG and was working hard to attract families could help it on Saturday and Sunday, but this is a $100 million film with a huge marketing budget that is going to struggle to get to $20 million its opening weekend. That is bad.

I am betting that it will not catch "Vegas" for 2nd place over the weekend as there will be lots of moms who will get to pick the movie this mother's day weekend and they will take their husbands to see "Vegas" (and maybe "Made of Honor" or "Baby Mama"), especially on Sunday.

What's more, "Speed" had to have a big opening because "Narnia: Prince Caspian" comes out next weekend and it is going to swallow all the family film competition. As an aside, I am hearing that Caspian is pretty good and has a lot more action than the first film.

Anyway, the people who voted for "Speed" as one of the summer's top 5 are toast. I looks like it will not even be one of the top 10 movies of the summer.

--Jason "Matthew Fox needs Lost to last as long as possible, he is 0-for-forever in picking good movies for his transition from TV to the big screen" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

Darn, I only voted for one film in the poll...I guess I should have paid closer attention to the details.

[billybreen]

I think we have our first real bust of the summer. I have not seen the official boxoffice figures yet, but the Friday numbers for Speed Racer were just awful.

It did $5.8 million on Friday, only good for 3rd place behind "What Happens in Vegas" ($6.7 mill) and Iron Man ($15.3 mill). I suppose the fact that Speed is PG and was working hard to attract families could help it on Saturday and Sunday, but this is a $100 million film with a huge marketing budget that is going to struggle to get to $20 million its opening weekend. That is bad.

Yep, Speed Racer is 3rd this weekend, and Iron Man will finish above $50m, more than twice the runner up for the week. I contributed to the big 2nd weekend for Iron Man as the wife and I finally saw it on Friday. Very fun, and I'm definitely looking forward to the sequel.

As I expected, the strongest points for me were the nerd scenes with all his gadgets. Great stuff.

[JasonEvans]

Yep, Speed Racer is 3rd this weekend, and Iron Man will finish above $50m, more than twice the runner up for the week. I contributed to the big 2nd weekend for Iron Man as the wife and I finally saw it on Friday. Very fun, and I'm definitely looking forward to the sequel.

As I expected, the strongest points for me were the nerd scenes with all his gadgets. Great stuff.

Actually, I was wrong. The preliminary figures for the whole weekend find Speed barely, just barely, edging out What Happened in Vegas. We will need to see the final Sunday figures on Monday to know if this holds up. The folks at Warner might have been overestimating the Sunday audience in an effort to make sure Speed was initially labelled as the #2 film.

Regardless, all the headlines will be about how badly this movie bombed.

The Wachowski (sp?) brothers have really done nothing but disappoint at the boxoffice since the first Matrix film (though I liked V for Vendetta).

--Jason "thanks to Hillary dragging things out, I am gonna miss the Narnia preview screening on Tuesday... grrr" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

(though I liked V for Vendetta)

V for Vendetta had the song Corcovado(Quiet Night for Quiet Stars) by Jobim, The Gilbertos & Stan Getz playing in the background. That group was much more famous for The Girl from Ipanema, but I love both songs.

[billybreen]

Actually, I was wrong. The preliminary figures for the whole weekend find Speed barely, just barely, edging out What Happened in Vegas. We will need to see the final Sunday figures on Monday to know if this holds up. The folks at Warner might have been overestimating the Sunday audience in an effort to make sure Speed was initially labelled as the #2 film.

Regardless, all the headlines will be about how badly this movie bombed.

The Wachowski (sp?) brothers have really done nothing but disappoint at the boxoffice since the first Matrix film (though I liked V for Vendetta).

--Jason "thanks to Hillary dragging things out, I am gonna miss the Narnia preview screening on Tuesday... grrr" Evans

I was basing my info on this (http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/what-a-disaster-speed-racer-20m-weekend-half-what-warner-bros-hoped-overseas-take-dismal-too/). All the other studios think Warner is overestimating.

[Cell-R]

Indiana Jones!
Although Iron Man already had a great start, I think Indiana is epic, and much more widely known.

Although with The Dark Night being Heath Ledger's last movie, it might be extremely close.

[hc5duke]

This looks like a prototypical vanity project of a comic who has lost his voice, relevance, and humor (for the canonical example of this phenomenon, see "Murphy, Eddie"). I'll be surprised if the RT score is >20% unless the trailer was grossly misleading.

Replace "Mike Myers" with "Adam Sandler" and the same could be said about that Zohan movie.

[billybreen]

Replace "Mike Myers" with "Adam Sandler" and the same could be said about that Zohan movie.

Indeed. That looks like a steaming pile.

Watching Iron Man on Friday, a twenty-something couple sitting next to us laughed uproariously through both the Guru and Zohan trailers. I've never hated anyone more.

[Lord Ash]

I was interested for about the first five seconds of the Zohan trailer; I find Israeli culture a perfect base for a smart, funny movie. But once I figured out what the film really was... woof.

Not surprised Speed sucked; the world doesn't want such fit-inducing graphics. Woof, a person can only take so much!

[wilson]

Speed Racer's opening hovering just above $20 million if you believe WB, but just below (and in 3rd place) according to all the other studios:

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/what-a-disaster-speed-racer-20m-weekend-half-what-warner-bros-hoped-overseas-take-dismal-too/

[JasonEvans]

Replace "Mike Myers" with "Adam Sandler" and the same could be said about that Zohan movie.

Dissent--

This is gonna sound strange, but Mike Meyers isn't 1/10th the actor that Adam Sandler is. Have you seen Spanglish, Punch Drunk Love, or Reign Over Me? Even when doing something light, Sandler was great in 50 First Dates and The Wedding Singer, both of which are among the best romantic comedies of the past 10 years, IMO.

I actually think Sandler has gone away from the silly, slapstick stuff in recent years. Click, Anger Management, The Longest Yard, and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry had more depth and were more intelligent than anything Mike Meyers has done. I am not saying everythign Sandler does is good, goodness no, but I think he goes for a lot more quality than Mike Meyers does.

I'd be willing to bet that Zohan is a far better film and gets much more critical praise than The Love Guru. I actually think Zohan looks sorta funny and am looking forward to it.

Then again, I am an ex-Mossad superagent so I can relate to the story ;)

--Jason "in case you cannot tell, I have finally forgiven Adam Sandler for Little Nicky, Mr. Deeds, and The Waterboy" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I was basing my info on this (http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/what-a-disaster-speed-racer-20m-weekend-half-what-warner-bros-hoped-overseas-take-dismal-too/). All the other studios think Warner is overestimating.

Yup, Warner lied... big time.

They over-estimated Speed Racer's Sunday take by almost 2 million dollars. Now, for some films a 2 million dollars mistake on a single day might be understandible. For a big money blockbuster, like Iron Man or Spider Man, I could see being off by 2 million. It is not that crazy.

This, though, is crazy. Warner's Sunday estimate was off by almost 40%. Speed actually made $5 million on Sunday and tehy initially reported something like $7 million. That's just crazy.

So, Speed finishes its opening week with a total of $18.5 million putting it in third place. This means that the $120+ million Speed Racer was soundly beaten by the $35 million What Happens in Vegas.

B
O
M
B!!

-Jason "Speed did poorly in its international runs too-- it really tanked in Europe" Evans

[throatybeard]

Who cares (other than the studio executives) what these movies gross?

There are bad movies that gross a lot; there are great movies that gross little; there are great movies that gross a lot; and there are horrible movies that gross little.

Tell me which ones have artistic merit.

[Udaman]

The numbers for Narnia were disappointing for their studio...to say the least. It did much worse than The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe...and the critics were pretty mixed (at best). Of course they are spinning it that this will do well for the next few weekends (i.e. Memorial Day) and it certainly shouldn't tank next weekend....but I think this one is now in trouble of reaching $200M domestically, which will be considered a huge letdown for this movie.

The problem is this weekend you get Indy, and it targets much of the same audience. Plus Ironman continues to do so well. Then in three weekends you get Kung Fu Panda and then The Hulk. I also don't think you'll see a lot of repeat watchers for Narnia - something the first film definitely had. My prediction now is this movie ends up at $175M, which could jeopardize its chances for Top 5 status....something I didn't think possible before the summer started.

[JasonEvans]

The numbers for Narnia were disappointing for their studio...to say the least. It did much worse than The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe...and the critics were pretty mixed (at best). Of course they are spinning it that this will do well for the next few weekends (i.e. Memorial Day) and it certainly shouldn't tank next weekend....but I think this one is now in trouble of reaching $200M domestically, which will be considered a huge letdown for this movie.

The problem is this weekend you get Indy, and it targets much of the same audience. Plus Ironman continues to do so well. Then in three weekends you get Kung Fu Panda and then The Hulk. I also don't think you'll see a lot of repeat watchers for Narnia - something the first film definitely had. My prediction now is this movie ends up at $175M, which could jeopardize its chances for Top 5 status....something I didn't think possible before the summer started.

I mostly saw mid-80s predictions for first weekend boxoffice for Caspian. Mid-50s is a baaaad number for this flick.

I still think it has a decent chance of getting to $200 million, or at least coming close enough to be one of the top 5 of the summer. Cinemascore, which does polls of people who watch movies, gave it an "A-" which is a decent grade and at least indicates Caspian will not have negative word of mouth. Worth noting though, the original Narnia had an "A+" from Cinemascore.

Jury is still out. We need to see how it holds up over the next week and weekend. If Indy sells out a lot, spillover could help Narnia.

I am starting to think that one of my darkhorse picks for top 5, Hancock, is in real trouble. It has gotten an R-rating from the MPAA twice according to reports from Hollywood. They are trying to recut it to give it a PG-13. If it is an R, it will have huge trouble making it to $200 million. There have only been 8 R-rated $200 million films in history.

Still, if anyone can do it, Will Smith can -- he is boxffice gold!!

--Jason "I think Will Smith is the most bankable star in Hollywood these days" Evans

[Udaman]

Off the top of my head I would guess

Jaws
The Exorcist
Saving Private Ryan
Wedding Crashers (the last one to do it, correct)
Beverly Hills Cop (at least I think it was R)
The Passion of the Christ
The Matrix (not the first, and I don't think the last, so the middle, whatever that was)
Gladiator


Close?

[Clipsfan]

Not a bad guess, the actual list is:


Rank OR# Title Studio Lifetime Gross^ Year*
1 11 Passion of the Christ NM $370,782,930 2004
2 33 The Matrix Reloaded WB $281,576,461 2003
3 53 Beverly Hills Cop Par. $234,760,478 1984
4 57 The Exorcist WB $232,671,011 1973
5 70 Saving Private Ryan DW $216,540,909 1998
6 74 300 WB $210,614,939 2007
7 76 Wedding Crashers NL $209,255,921 2005
8 81 Terminator 2 TriS $204,843,345 1991

[Udaman]

Wow! Jaws was only rated PG???? Simply amazing.

My father made the mistake of taking me to that when I was 6 years old. My mom never forgave him. To this day...I get nervous swimming in the ocean when it's past waist deep, and absolutely refuse to swim in any water in the dark (and I'm 40).

[Bluedog]

Wow! Jaws was only rated PG???? Simply amazing.

My father made the mistake of taking me to that when I was 6 years old. My mom never forgave him. To this day...I get nervous swimming in the ocean when it's past waist deep, and absolutely refuse to swim in any water in the dark (and I'm 40).

Well, there was no PG-13 rating at the time (right?), which is probably what it'd be given today. But, still, I agree with you that PG for Jaws sounds insane.

[JasonEvans]

DevilAlumna, DevilBen02, Exiled_Devil, Lord Ash, oso diablo, Udaman, UVaAmbassador, wilson, wired -- you lose.

More later.

--Jason "talk about cryptic messages" Evans

[BCGroup]

DevilAlumna, DevilBen02, Exiled_Devil, Lord Ash, oso diablo, Udaman, UVaAmbassador, wilson, wired -- you lose.

More later.

--Jason "talk about cryptic messages" Evans

Hmm, my guess--they all voted for Prince Caspian???

[Deslok]

Hmm, my guess--they all voted for Prince Caspian???

Or perhaps.... the 9 who voted for Kung Fu Panda?

[billybreen]

Or perhaps.... the 9 who voted for Kung Fu Panda?

That appears to be it.

[Lord Ash]

I did indeed vote Kung Fu Panda; heck, it stars animals and is animated and about martial arts; figured it would be a strong family movie. Honestly, I cannot BELIEVE so many people think Wall E will make money whereas Kung Fu won't. Will it be a better film? Most likely. But making more money?

[hc5duke]

I did indeed vote Kung Fu Panda; heck, it stars animals and is animated and about martial arts; figured it would be a strong family movie. Honestly, I cannot BELIEVE so many people think Wall E will make money whereas Kung Fu won't. Will it be a better film? Most likely. But making more money?

Pixar = $$$$$$$$$$$$$
Dreamworks (except Shrek) = $$

[JasonEvans]

I do not have time right now for an extensive Kung Fu Panda review, but I did see it last night and it was very average. What was quite telling to me was that my 8-year-old said he did not like it. It wasn't very funny, in his opinion and this kid likes everything. My 11-year-old agreed for the most part. I think the movie will skew younger and will not get the adult audience that most Pixar films draw in.

I'll post more later, but I expect Panda to be nowhere near the top 5 this summer and to get mostly mediocre reviews.

--Jason "gotta run now" Evans

[watzone]

Agree. I put it in my top 5 with:

Iron Man - First big movie of summer = long legs and intial buzz of being first. First big movie of summer is always among the biggest of the summer, look it up.
Narnia - church folks plus kids plus early release plus sequel to big hit = huge hit.
Indiana Jones - no brainer. Remember that Spielberg is doing this so it will be high quality even if Ford looks ancient and the trailers look weak so far.
and Wall.E - I loved what I have seen from the trailer and the 5 minutes sneak peak I saw recently. Looks strong and not much animated competition.


-Jason


Hancock over the Dark Knight? That's the only place we differed. Narnias numbers were surprisingly low, but it will have a bit of staying power.

[Cavlaw]

I actually liked Narnia rather well. It wasn't amazing, but it did have an epic adventure feel to it and jumped right into the action with a dark, gritty introduction. It didn't have the character development of the Wardrobe w/r/t the Penseive children (though I thought Caspian and Trumpkin were well developed), and would have suffered a lot in my eyes if it didn't have the original to build off of. I anticipate adding this to my DVD collection and going to see Dawn Treader when it is released.

[Exiled_Devil]

I do not have time right now for an extensive Kung Fu Panda review, but I did see it last night and it was very average. What was quite telling to me was that my 8-year-old said he did not like it. It wasn't very funny, in his opinion and this kid likes everything. My 11-year-old agreed for the most part. I think the movie will skew younger and will not get the adult audience that most Pixar films draw in.

I'll post more later, but I expect Panda to be nowhere near the top 5 this summer and to get mostly mediocre reviews.

--Jason "gotta run now" Evans

Wow. I am regaining my pop-culture track record*. I had Speed and Panda in my top 5. At least I avoided Caspian.

*for those not keeping track, I suck at guessing pop culture, especially what will or won't happen on Lost.

[Udaman]

What we know for sure is that Indy and Ironman are locks for the Top 5.

Caspian, however, is facing some major issues. They had a 50% drop from last weekend, and stand at $96M right now. That is a major disappointment for them. They have one more week with no competition other than what is already out there...but then they get hammered with Kung Fu Panda, The Hulk, Wall E, Get Smart, Hancock and Batman. That spells trouble. This film will have a tough time breaking $200M. I don't see it happening.

Batman will definitely finish higher, and I think both Wall E and Kung Fu Panda could do the same, knocking them out of the top 5.

Speed Racer continues to crash and burn.

The Hulk trailers still look awful.

Oh, and one trailer that really has made my interest in the movie go up is HellBoy 2 (and I never saw the first). That Pans Labyrinth director seems to know how to make good movies, I'll say that.

[bjornolf]

I'm still shocked that Hancock didn't get more votes. How is that movie NOT going to slay at the box office? It's got Will Smith. It's a movie about a black super hero that ISN'T a joke. It...will...slay...in...the...box...office...

[JasonEvans]

I'm still shocked that Hancock didn't get more votes. How is that movie NOT going to slay at the box office? It's got Will Smith. It's a movie about a black super hero that ISN'T a joke. It...will...slay...in...the...box...office...

See my above comments. I am in full agreement with you.

--Jason "Indy is a lock for the top 5 after that opening weekend" Evans

[billybreen]

I'm still shocked that Hancock didn't get more votes. How is that movie NOT going to slay at the box office? It's got Will Smith. It's a movie about a black super hero that ISN'T a joke. It...will...slay...in...the...box...office...

I guess I just keep underestimating Will Smith. I've never really understood the fuss. He's no Carlton Banks.

[Bluedawg]

I just saw Leatherheads. It was a really good flick.

[bbar7502]

After taking my wife to see Sex and the City today, I wouldn't overlook that movie bringing in the money. All of the shows were sold out and I overheard a whole bunch of the ladies, my wife included talking about coming back to see it again.....that is why they are already working on getting together for a 2nd one.

[hc5duke]

After taking my wife to see Sex and the City today, I wouldn't overlook that movie bringing in the money. All of the shows were sold out and I overheard a whole bunch of the ladies, my wife included talking about coming back to see it again.....that is why they are already working on getting together for a 2nd one.

http://media.thestate.com/smedia/2008/05/30/20/725-DSCF1155.slideshow_main.prod_affiliate.74.JPG

http://www.thestate.com/slideshows/gallery/420302-a420274-t3.html

nice shirt bbar!

[bbar7502]

haha that is almost right, except i had on my go to hell carolina shirt.....

[JasonEvans]

I have never seen as many women at movies as I did last night. Every S&TC showing was sold out at every theater I went to. It was crazy.

That said, I would still be surprised if it gets into the top 5 of the summer as women don't tend to be repeat viewers. Also, from what I saw, the audience is going to be 75+% female. It is very hard to have a big hit with only one demographic seeing your movie. Men tend to bring their women with them to movies more than women brining men to see films. Look at male-skewing films like horror flicks or action movies or sci-fi and you will see that the audience is almost always at least 35-40% female. If S&TC is only 25% male, it will never get to $200 million.

--Jason "It did around $20 million on Friday, a big opening, but I wonder how well it will hold up" Evans

[hc5duke]

That said, I would still be surprised if it gets into the top 5 of the summer as women don't tend to be repeat viewers. Also, from what I saw, the audience is going to be 75+% female... If S&TC is only 25% male, it will never get to $200 million.

*cough* Titanic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_%281997_film%29) *cough*

Though to be fair S&tC won't have the benefit of the demographic (12-15 year old girls) that watched Titanic 10+ times... I just looked it up, Titanic grossed almost 2 billion dollars(!!!) worldwide. Also it's "the most expensive film yet made in inflation unadjusted dollars, costing approximately US$200 million with funding from Paramount Pictures and 20th Century Fox."

[JasonEvans]

Sex and the City was a one-night wonder.

It did almost $27 million opening night. That is a huge number!! But then look at the next 2 days.

It tumbled by 33% to under 18 million on Saturday. Even for a movie with a lot of pent-up demand, it is unusual for a movie to decline from Friday to Saturday (there are a lot more showing that people can attend on a Saturday versus a Friday). To drop by 33% Fri to Sat -- well, that is stunning.

It dropped again on Sunday, which is very common, though the drop was larger than usual (40%). In fact, on Saturday and Sunday, Indy 4 actually beat S&TC by about $5 million. If it was not for the huge Friday, S&TC would not have won the weekend.

So, despite a very impressive $55 million opening weekend that would ordinarily put it in line to be perhaps one of the top 5 films of the summer, I expect a major decline for S&TC and for it to max out around $130 million or so. That won't be good enough to make the top 5 (a good thing seeing as it was not on the list of films we could vote for).

--Jason "more in a moment..." Evans

[JasonEvans]

In other "Top 5 for the summer" news---

Narnia:Caspian is limping. It did about $13 million this weekend and is currently at $115 million total. It is going to get to $150 million, but not easily and won't get much beyond there. I don't think that will be enough to make the Top 5. Seeing as about 2/3rds of us picked this as a Top 5 films, a lot of us are gonna be wrong.

Indy is now a mortal lock to make the Top 5. It steamed past $200 million this weekend and is going pretty strong still. It will probably end up close to $300 million, a very big number.

Iron Man is also a mortal lock as it too appears that it will get to $300 million.

I think we know 2 of the top 5 for sure and we are pretty confident that a couple early contenders, Narnia and certainly Speed Racer, are not gonna make it.

--Jason "still a lot of summer left" Evans

[Udaman]

Agree completely about Sex and the City. The fact that 85% of the audience was apparently women....is simply amazing.

Normally, a good rule of thumb is to take the opening day take and multiply it by about 3. The movie should at least make that....but I don't see anyway that Sex and the City reaches $165M. Next week, it will fall by over 60%. Those that wanted to see it have done so.

Also agree about Narnia - it won't make $200M, and will struggle to break $170M. That won't be good enough for top 5. So four of mine are still left (Indy, Batman, Panda and The Mummy). Honestly, I would be happy to go 3 for 5 at this point.

A few random comments:

The Hulk looks really bad, which is a shame.

I'm actually excited to see The Happening.

I saw Forgetting Sarah Marshall and really enjoyed it.

[A-Tex Devil]

The Hulk looks really bad, which is a shame.

I'm actually excited to see The Happening.


I've felt the exact opposite. The first preview of the Hulk was awful, but some additional previews and clips have been released (see aintitcoolnews.com), and it's starting to look pretty good.

I'm going to have to wait for word of mouth on the Happening before I spend my $10. I read a couple of non-spoiler reviews that don't bode well, and apparently Markie Mark is stunningly bad in it.

[JasonEvans]

I've felt the exact opposite. The first preview of the Hulk was awful, but some additional previews and clips have been released (see aintitcoolnews.com), and it's starting to look pretty good.

I'm going to have to wait for word of mouth on the Happening before I spend my $10. I read a couple of non-spoiler reviews that don't bode well, and apparently Markie Mark is stunningly bad in it.

I think the recent Hulk stuff looks very solid. I am eager to see the film. I think Ed Norton is a very nice choice for David Banner. I could see it being a big film, for sure.

As for The Happening, I have not seen it but the buzz is really bad. The "twist" that explains what is "happening" is supposedly just horrid. Shyamalan pitched it to several studios a while ago and he got laughed at by many of them. He finally got someone to put money behind it but the word from Hollywood is that they are trying to keep it as secret as possible to get a big opening weekend because they know post-opening buzz is going to be dreadful.

I don't think it will be as bad as Lady in the Water, but it won't be in a league with Signs or 6th Sense, that's for sure.

-Jason "if you want to know the twist in The Happening, I can post it in spoiler-proof text" EVans

[brevity]

It tumbled by 33% to under 18 million on Saturday. Even for a movie with a lot of pent-up demand, it is unusual for a movie to decline from Friday to Saturday (there are a lot more showing that people can attend on a Saturday versus a Friday). To drop by 33% Fri to Sat -- well, that is stunning.

Sex and the City was a special case. There were grassroots efforts in every city to make Friday night a Girls' Night Out event. And indeed, the women came out in droves to give the film some impressive bank. But after opening night, there was no gimmick to make the movie anything other than just another option at the cineplex. And so the film has descended to more realistic (but still impressive) box office.

Semi-positive word of mouth should give the film a respectable second weekend ($10-15 million, well behind Kung Fu Panda, Zohan, and Indy). A total sum of $100-120 million seems about right, which really isn't bad at all.

[brevity]

Semi-positive word of mouth should give the film a respectable second weekend ($10-15 million, well behind Kung Fu Panda, Zohan, and Indy). A total sum of $100-120 million seems about right, which really isn't bad at all.

I was waaaay off. Sex and the City was making about $5 million a day during the week, which is ridiculous. And whether it or Indy finishes 3rd, it still made over $20 million in its second weekend.

It's already at $99 million and could crack $150 million when all is said and done. At this point, the sequel kinda seems inevitable. (And for a person who thought HBO wrapped things up nicely the first time around, I can't imagine what drama they need to create for a second encore.)

[billybreen]

I think the recent Hulk stuff looks very solid. I am eager to see the film. I think Ed Norton is a very nice choice for David Banner. I could see it being a big film, for sure.

As for The Happening, I have not seen it but the buzz is really bad. The "twist" that explains what is "happening" is supposedly just horrid. Shyamalan pitched it to several studios a while ago and he got laughed at by many of them. He finally got someone to put money behind it but the word from Hollywood is that they are trying to keep it as secret as possible to get a big opening weekend because they know post-opening buzz is going to be dreadful.

I don't think it will be as bad as Lady in the Water, but it won't be in a league with Signs or 6th Sense, that's for sure.

-Jason "if you want to know the twist in The Happening, I can post it in spoiler-proof text" EVans

M. Night is such a one trick pony, I've been eagerly anticipating the day when he stops getting greenlit for these projects. Hopefully once the Happening tanks he'll finally be forced to revisit and revise his formulaic approach.

[bjornolf]

Sex and the City was a one-night wonder.

It did almost $27 million opening night. That is a huge number!! But then look at the next 2 days.

It tumbled by 33% to under 18 million on Saturday. Even for a movie with a lot of pent-up demand, it is unusual for a movie to decline from Friday to Saturday (there are a lot more showing that people can attend on a Saturday versus a Friday). To drop by 33% Fri to Sat -- well, that is stunning.

I don't necessarily agree that it's stunning. Sex and the City is a special case, as someone pointed out. A VAST majority of people seeing it are women. Single women who wanted to see it so bad just went after work on Friday to try to avoid the crowds over the weekend, and to take advantage of the night-life surrounding the movie (all the bars that did cosmo specials and special drinks with the personalities of the characters and all that). Women with kids handed them off to their hubbies or hired a baby-sitter and went. How many women are going to escape their families on a SATURDAY? Much easier Friday evening. And it's not the kind of movie many kids are going to sit quietly through, so it's not like they could take them. I could see a lot of wives cutting deals with their hubbies like "Take the kids tonight, and you can go see Ironman with your buds tomorrow" or "Do this for me, and I'll do something special for you". ;);)

So, all I'm saying is that for a movie with such a laser-targeted audience, it doesn't surprise me that it would drop on the Saturday so much.

[Exiled_Devil]

GO Panda!!!

Top of th box office, looks like $60 million for the weekend. There is hope.

[Tommac]

So far, I've seen Ironman, Indy Jones and this Saturday saw Prince Caspian. Honestly I think they were all about equal. I was pleasantly suprised with Robert Downy Jr in Ironman. I liked Indy Jones but had a major distraction during the movie. My wife noticed her cell phone missing so I missed probably 30 minutes while she was looking around. And I think Prince Caspian was almost as good as the first Narnia movie.

[NashvilleDevil]

Was watching the NBA Finals when the sponsors for the commercials came up. The voiceover said that Hancock was now rated PG-13. How much does that help its performance at the box office? I think this movie will make the top 5 for the summer. Will Smith never disappoints and the trailer at the Indy movie has me interested.

[BCGroup]

So far, I've seen Ironman, Indy Jones and this Saturday saw Prince Caspian. Honestly I think they were all about equal. I was pleasantly suprised with Robert Downy Jr in Ironman. I liked Indy Jones but had a major distraction during the movie. My wife noticed her cell phone missing so I missed probably 30 minutes while she was looking around. And I think Prince Caspian was almost as good as the first Narnia movie.

I've seen those three also and enjoyed each one. Thought they were good mindless, summer movies. And despite some of the reviews, I did like PC a lot--but I'm a fan of the books and thought they did a good job with that one (which I've always thought was the slowest of the series).

[JasonEvans]

GO Panda!!!

Top of th box office, looks like $60 million for the weekend. There is hope.

I am stunned, stunned, that it did that well and am equally taken aback by the reviews. I must have seen a different movie than everyone else.

It has a shot -- not a great one but a shot -- at being top 5.

-Jason "just back from vaca-- trying to catch up" Evans

[TillyGalore]

I am stunned, stunned, that it did that well and am equally taken aback by the reviews. I must have seen a different movie than everyone else.

It has a shot -- not a great one but a shot -- at being top 5.

-Jason "just back from vaca-- trying to catch up" Evans

I wonder if Kung Fu Panda did well because this past weekend was sweltering and going to the movies was one way to beat the heat.

My BF and I were going to see it Friday night, but when we saw the parking lot we headed to the store to rent a movie instead.

[Clipsfan]

*cough* Titanic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_%281997_film%29) *cough*

Though to be fair S&tC won't have the benefit of the demographic (12-15 year old girls) that watched Titanic 10+ times... I just looked it up, Titanic grossed almost 2 billion dollars(!!!) worldwide. Also it's "the most expensive film yet made in inflation unadjusted dollars, costing approximately US$200 million with funding from Paramount Pictures and 20th Century Fox."

There have been several movies since then which have cost more than $200 million (e.g. King Kong).

[JasonEvans]

There have been several movies since then which have cost more than $200 million (e.g. King Kong).

Superman Returns is thought to be the most expensive film in history as there were something like $50 million in special payments that had to be made to even begin making that film and then it had an actual cost of like $220 million. Whew!!

Plus, it was probably the worst film of Brian Singer's career (though I never saw Apt Pupil).

--Jason "I am seeing The Happening tonight -- I am not optimistic" Evans

[snowdenscold]

--Jason "I am seeing The Happening tonight -- I am not optimistic" Evans

Just curious before you go - did you enjoy The Village at all? Most people didn't like it, but it's one of my favorite movies (partly because the music is spectacular). Right now I'm fairly interested in seeing The Happening.

[JasonEvans]

Just curious before you go - did you enjoy The Village at all? Most people didn't like it, but it's one of my favorite movies (partly because the music is spectacular). Right now I'm fairly interested in seeing The Happening.

I did like The Village. I did not think it was nearly up to the standards of Signs or The 6th Sense, but it was a good flick for the most part. I'd rank the Night films thusly--

Great, groundbreaking- 6th Sense
Very Good, worth watching twice- Signs
Good, worth price of admission- Unbreakable, Village
Bad, wasted time and money- Lady in the Water

I'll let you know where Happening falls after tonight...

--Jason "I think Happening will be super-scary but will fall apart at the end" Evvans

[Clipsfan]

I did like The Village. I did not think it was nearly up to the standards of Signs or The 6th Sense, but it was a good flick for the most part. I'd rank the Night films thusly--

Great, groundbreaking- 6th Sense
Very Good, worth watching twice- Signs
Good, worth price of admission- Unbreakable, Village
Bad, wasted time and money- Lady in the Water

I'll let you know where Happening falls after tonight...

--Jason "I think Happening will be super-scary but will fall apart at the end" Evvans

I'll be seeing The Happening tomorrow as well, although I don't really have high expectations at the moment. Maybe that's a good thing.

[Exiled_Devil]

--Jason "I think Happening will be super-scary but will fall apart at the end" Evvans

I read a spoiled review that strongly argues the second part there, but didn't agre with the first. Good Luck.

Exiled

[JasonEvans]

I read a spoiled review that strongly argues the second part there, but didn't agre with the first. Good Luck.

Exiled

My comments on it can be found here. (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9723)

--Jason "it was beyond awful-- save your money!" Evans

[murpho]

So what was the latest and greatest movie buzz from this last weekend? This is my favorite annual summer thread and like reading the expert reports from our moderators and other readers.

[Udaman]

Well, it told us that those who voted for The Hulk and Get Smart as top 5 finishers have lost that pick, for certain. The Hulk had a huge drop (though not as big as the first Hulk), and get Smart will be lucky now to break $140M.

However, Jason's write-off of Kung Fu Panda might have been premature. It is now sitting at $156M, and even if Wall-E has a big weekend, so will this movie, as people with kids will go to see if when the Wall-E rooms fill up. Panda will now likely get to $200M when all is said and done. Personally, I think it will come down to Panda and Wall-E. One will make the top 5, the other won't....and I'm still not convinced that Wall-E will get it done. I predict several reviews this week that suggest that Pixar has slipped with this one (then again, I thought IronMan would be bad, so what do I know).

Also, The Happening sank like a rock, and The Love Guru was a massive failure (something I predicted, though that's not saying much).

The movie I am still beyond excited to see...is The Dark Knight.

[BCGroup]

Early review of The Dark Night:
"Heads up: a thunderbolt is about to rip into the blanket of bland we call summer movies. The Dark Knight, director Christopher Nolan's absolute stunner of a follow-up to 2005's Batman Begins, is a potent provocation decked out as a comic-book movie. Feverish action? Check. Dazzling spectacle? Check. Devilish fun? Check. But Nolan is just warming up. There's something raw and elemental at work in this artfully imagined universe."


http://www.rollingstone.com/reviews/movie/16155928/review/21477208/the_dark_

[JasonEvans]

Early review of The Dark Night:
"Heads up: a thunderbolt is about to rip into the blanket of bland we call summer movies. The Dark Knight, director Christopher Nolan's absolute stunner of a follow-up to 2005's Batman Begins, is a potent provocation decked out as a comic-book movie. Feverish action? Check. Dazzling spectacle? Check. Devilish fun? Check. But Nolan is just warming up. There's something raw and elemental at work in this artfully imagined universe."


http://www.rollingstone.com/reviews/movie/16155928/review/21477208/the_dark_

Sweet!!! Good to hear.

So, if I had to revise my top 5 picks -- now that summer is halfway over -- I would go with:

Iron Man
Indy Jones
Wall*E
Dark Knight

and... hmmmm... I guess Hancock. I picked it originally and now that it has scored a PG-13 as opposed to an R rating then I should feel better about this pick. Yeah, I am going with Hancock as my 5th.

--Jason "I wonder if Pandad may get a tiny boost this weekend from WALL*E sold-out spillover?" Evans

[BCGroup]

Jason, from what I've seen, I don't want to go to Hancock. I know they toned it down for the PG-13, but it still doesn't appeal to me at all, despite Will Smith. I found one review (not positive):

"An intriguing high concept is undermined by low-grade dramaturgy in "Hancock." This misguided attempt to wring a novel twist on the superhero genre has a certain whiff of "The Last Action Hero" about it, with Will Smith playing an indestructible crime-buster in a pointedly real-world context. Although it will inevitably open very large, this odd and perplexing aspiring tentpole will provide a real test of Smith's box office invincibility. "

http://www.variety.com/VE1117937497.html

I'm wondering if it will start big because of Will Smith, then go downhill if people find it too dark?

[Clipsfan]

Jason, from what I've seen, I don't want to go to Hancock. I know they toned it down for the PG-13, but it still doesn't appeal to me at all, despite Will Smith. I found one review (not positive):

"An intriguing high concept is undermined by low-grade dramaturgy in "Hancock." This misguided attempt to wring a novel twist on the superhero genre has a certain whiff of "The Last Action Hero" about it, with Will Smith playing an indestructible crime-buster in a pointedly real-world context. Although it will inevitably open very large, this odd and perplexing aspiring tentpole will provide a real test of Smith's box office invincibility. "

http://www.variety.com/VE1117937497.html

I'm wondering if it will start big because of Will Smith, then go downhill if people find it too dark?

That's the main review I'd seen as well, although I've read the Hollywood Reporter one as well. They both agree that the movie starts out alright but rapidly goes down hill (and one states that families may be upset with the language). I'm guessing that it has a huge opening weekend and drops off quickly. It's funny, I've gone from having no interest to thinking it might be a lot of fun to not really caring again.

[JasonEvans]

Here's one of the big summer questions still unresolved-- What will be the #1 movie of the summer?

Iron Man currently leads Indiana Jones by 12 million ($306M - 294M), but Indy gains a little bit every day. I think Iron Man will hold on -- though it could be very close.

I don't think there is enough time for anyone else to challenge these two.

--Jason "I am betting WALL*E does about $70 mill this weekend" Evans

[Lord Ash]

Jason, what are the current standings? I think I will end up with 4 of 5 correct, with a miss on Wall-E.

[Clipsfan]

I'm surprised that Wanted opened up to more than $50MM, but Wall-E was right around my expectations. It'll have long legs and continue the Pixar streak.

[Olympic Fan]

You can get box office numbers here at rottentomatoes:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/movies/box_office.php?sort=t_earnings&rank_id=1788


As of today (Monday, June 30) the yearly box office is:

1. Iron Man 309.2 (2.3 last week)
2. Indiana Jones 299.9 (5.0)
3. Kung Fu Panda 173.3 (11.7)
4. Sex and the City 140.1 (3.8)
5. Narnia: Prince Caspian 137.7 (1.1)
6. Hulk 115.5 (9.2)
7. Zohan 91.2 (3.2)
8. Get Smart 77.3 (20.0)
9. WALL-E 62.5 (62.5)
10. The Happening 59.1 (3.9)
11. Wanted 51.1 (51.1)
12. Love Guru 25.3 (5.4)

I think you have to get over $200-million to even have a chance to finish in the top five -- so only Iron Man, Indiana and very likely Kung Fu Panda are in that range. Sex and the City ain't going to get there. This will be the big week to watch WALL-E and Wanted and see what kind of legs they have.

The openings this week include one interesting battle. Will Smith opens in Hancock (and should do huge opening numbers ... his real test will be the second week). But his daughter has a big role in Kit Kitteredge, which apparently is like a Harry Potter for little girls and from what I read might put up some decent numbers (not $200 million or anything). I saw an interview with Smith's daughter and she was taunting her father that her movie would end up with a bigger box office than his ... I know that's a long shot, but FWIW her movie has an 80 percent rating at rottentomatoes ... his is at 37 percent.

[Lord Ash]

Ohh, as long as Hancock and Batman break the top five, I will be right on with all five predictions! Nice!

[JasonEvans]

Hancock is now here. In a matter of a few days we will know if Will Smith really is boxoffice gold or if no one is bigger than bad reviews.

I am betting it passes $100 million by the time the July 4th weekend is done (it gets a couple extra days by opening on Wednesday).

--Jason "by the way, WALL*E is running about 10% ahead of Panda with the big July 4th weekend still to come" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Hancock did $17.3 million on Wednesday, its first full day in release. That is an impressive number, especially when you consider that the movie did another 7 million Tuesday night when it "sneaked" early at some theaters.

I dunno how it will hold up, but Will Smith would seem to remain boxoffice gold. It would take a real dive for this film not to be at $100 million by the time the long July 4th weekend is done.

-Jason "despite the many reviews that skewer the back half of the film-- it seems $200+ million is in Hancock's future" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Everyone who bet against Hancock are gonna feel like idiots after this weekend. It will be well beyond $100 million by Monday. It is at $41 million even before the weekend begins.

--Jason "I bet WALL*E is well ahead of Panda's pace after this weekend too" Evans

[acciconoclast]

Can find pretty good stats here, usually updated daily for domestic and weekly for overseas

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/

[acciconoclast]

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/

http://www.movieweb.com/movies/boxoffice/daily/

[Lord Ash]

Okay... btw, when does this end?

So far I've got the three easy ones ("Indiana," "Iron Man," and "Batman,") and two not-as-popular choices ("Panda" and "Hancock.") The only film that I am afraid of right now is Wall-E; it could knock one of my bottom ones out of the top five!

[JasonEvans]

Okay... btw, when does this end?

So far I've got the three easy ones ("Indiana," "Iron Man," and "Batman,") and two not-as-popular choices ("Panda" and "Hancock.") The only film that I am afraid of right now is Wall-E; it could knock one of my bottom ones out of the top five!

I think it probably ends on Labor day, which is the traditional end of summer. Truth be told, we will almost certainly know the top 5 by the time we are in mid-August. It usually is not close enough for one or two extra weekends in late August to really matter.

--Jason "I missed on Narnia, but like my other picks of Iron, Indy, WALL*E, and Hancock" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Those of us who voted for Hancock are feeling pretty good right now. It is at $107 million at the end of its first weekend. Unless it just get crushed by bad work of mouth it is going to reach $200 million. but how far past $200 mill can it push?

The final few in the top 5 could be very close. Right now, WALL*E is running 11 million ahead of Panda through its second weekend, but Panda held up exceptionally well and may close that gap. Looks like Panda, which is currently at $193 million, will easily reach $200 mill and probably will get to about $210 mill or so.

The question right now is, where is the top 5 cutoff? Is $210 million enough to get there? I am not sure. I suspect that WALL*E and Hancock will both be in the $225 kinda range, maybe a little bit shy of that mark. Hard to say where Batman will fall as it has not even opened yet. Doubtful that anything else has a chance to get into that neighborhood.

Here are the current standings:

1. Iron Man - $311 (mostly done)
2. Indy 4 - $306 (mostly done)
3. Panda - $193 (has another 20 or so million left)
4. Sex City - $144 (not much left in its tank)
5. Narnia - $138 (nothing left in its tank)
6. WALL*E - $128 (after 2 weeks, still very strong)
7. Hulk - $124 (will struggle to get to $150)
8. Hancock - $107 (after just one week)

--Jason "Dark Knight is only remaining contender, right? Could Mama Mia or Mummy 3 surprise?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Batman fans -- good news.

Here is what Variety says after seeing a very early screening of The Dark Knight:


Having memorably explored the Caped Crusader's origins in "Batman Begins," director Christopher Nolan puts all of Gotham City under a microscope in "The Dark Knight," the enthralling second installment of his bold, bracing and altogether heroic reinvention of the iconic franchise. An ambitious, full-bodied crime epic of gratifying scope and moral complexity, this is seriously brainy pop entertainment that satisfies every expectation raised by its hit predecessor and then some.

--Jason "I see a screening about 9 days" Evans

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

there is no possible way batman dosn't win. its a no brainer.

[Udaman]

This is shaping up as a huge race for 4th and 5th.

I think we all agree that Indy, Iron Man and Batman will finish in the top 5 in some order. Earlier, I was high on The Mummy - but now not so much. I think it does OK, but finishes sub $200M.

Panda v. WallE v. Hancock will be fun to watch, and it literally could be decided by a few million either way. If WallE drops off just 40% for the next four weeks, then 50% after that, and Panda drops off 50% going forward....it will be just about a tie. I think Panda might drop off more, but I think 60% for Wall E is a little aggressive as well. It will all depend on the last few weeks in August and what Wall E does.

As for Hancock. It had a huge opening, and really has no competition this week either....but after that there's big trouble for this movie. Batman will capture its audience, then The Mummy goes after it next. If it does over $100M combined for the next 2 weeks, it is likely a lock for Top 5....but if it is around $95M or lower, it will be fighting with Panda and Wall E.

[Olympic Fan]

I think this week is huge for Hancock ... you could almost count on a huge opening for a Will Smith 4th of July vehicle and such a movie is review-proof. This week will show whether it has legs or not. Movies like this depend on work of mouth.

I agree that Iron Man, Indy and The Dark Knight are locks for the top five.

I think Hancock is in bad shape vs. WALL-E. The numbers are skewered a little bit because Hancock opened at midweek, but even with Smith's track record and the 4th weekend, it's first WEEKEND take ($66 million) was only slightly more than WALL-E's first weekend take ($62.5). I'd be willing to bet the Pixar offering (which got great reviews) has better legs than the badly reviewed Smith vehicle. As you point out, The Mummy and Batman are coming to steal Hancock's audience. What's going threaten WALL-E's audience -- Space Monkeys?

That doesn't mean that Hancock might finish at No. 5 -- I'm just saying that I think WALL-E will finish well ahead of Hancock (and Panda). I don't think it will be that close (and I'm not a big Pixar fan).

The real race is for No. 1 this summer. Ironman's lead over Indy shrinks a little each week -- it was $10 million a week ago ... after last weekend, it was down to $5.2 million. You say both are done, but actually last weekend, Indy was still No. 6 at the box office. It did $7 for the week and $3.9 million for the weekend.

The only other potential challenger for No. 1 I see on the summer horizon is the Batman film. It's obviously too early to guess whether it's a $300-plus million film or just $250 million ... but nothing else even has a chance at $300 million. I don't think Mamma Mia makes it ... nor Hellboy II.

BTW: I guess Will Smith remains a better draw than his daughter. Despite her boasts that she'd beat him at the box office, Kit Kitterdge did just $6.1 million for the week, opening the same day as Hancock.

PS Did we really get more votes in our poll for Speed Racer than for Hancock? Jeez, we're as bad at this as we were at picking American Idol losers.

[JasonEvans]

For the record, I am not 100% convinced that Dark Knight will be in the top 5. Based on the early reviews, which seem very positive, I think it is likely but it is not a sure thing.

--Jason "I almost feel foolish about this post, but we have seen hyped, well-reviewed films do less than $200 mill many times in the past" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Uh-oh.

Sunday's final numbers came out and Hancock did not do nearly as well as they had thought on Sunday. The early estimate was that Hancock made about 22 million on Sunday but it really only made 18 million.

Now, in the grand scheme of things this may not seem like a bid deal. It still puts Hancock at $103 million through its first weekend (versus the earlier estimate of 107 million). That is an impressive total.

But, it may be a sign that Hancock is in for a stiff fall-off this coming week. Bad word of mouth may be spreading and turning off folks who usually go see Will Smith no matter what the critics say.

I still think Hancock has a decent chance of reaching $200 million, but I am much less optimistic than I was 48 hours ago.

--Jason "Is Hancock a flop if it only makes $180 million?" Evans

[Udaman]

By the way, I saw it yesterday and pretty much agreed with Jason. It was fine and all, but really could have been better. The villian was nothing (and could have been much, much better), and the twist for some reason was easy for me to see coming. Also, as JE said, they seemed to just throw it in there, and then things happened so fast with such a forced explanation, that at times you were like, "Huh?"

From the midway point on, the only really funny scene was after the credits started to roll.

As I said before - the next two weeks will determine everything for where this shakes out. If the combined haul is $95M or more, then it will definitely finish top 5. If not...then it will struggle to beat Panda and Wall-E.

And Jason - The Dark Knight is an absolute lock for the top 5. Batman Begins made $205M three years ago, and the buzz over this one is even higher. It will finish with at least $250M.

[Udaman]

For all of those who voted after the opening weekend of Iron Man (and trust me - many of you did) you really should have an asterix next to your name. This movie was certainly no sure thing...and before that opening weekend, the votes had this movie solidly in 5th and borderline out of the top 5 (it was Batman, Narnia, Indy and Wall-E, with about the same number of votes for Panda, IronMan and Speed Racer).

It's my fault because I put the poll up too late (not until late April) and kept it open until May 11th. But my votes occured before the opening weekend. Obviously, had I seen those numbers (and after watching the movie that weekend), I would have put Iron Man in, and taken The Mummy out.

Next summer I'll post this a week or so earlier.

[pfrduke]

And Jason - The Dark Knight is an absolute lock for the top 5. Batman Begins made $205M three years ago, and the buzz over this one is even higher. It will finish with at least $250M.

And don't discount the Heath Ledger effect with this movie. I think some people who may not have ordinarily been inclined to watch the Dark Knight will go see it because it's a) Ledger's last movie and b) depending on who you talk to, the role that killed him. That's some morbid fascination right there, which will boost the numbers.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think Dark Knight will finish in the top 5 ever.

[TillyGalore]

because it's Ledger's last movie

That's exactly why I didn't want to see it. Through the whole movie I'd be thinking about how it is his last and how sorry I am that his little girl lost her daddy.

But, after reading early reviews and seeing some of the previews, I plan to see the movie.

[Clipsfan]

I think Dark Knight will finish in the top 5 ever.

I don't know if you're serious, but if you are that's quite a prediction. It would have to do about 40% better than the second place movie this summer (probably Ironman) to hit the top 5, and I just don't think that is likely. However, I do expect it to do really well and already have my tickets to the IMAX theater. I tried to get them for Friday, but it was sold out so I'm going on Saturday. As I haven't pre-bought any other tickets this summer other than Ironman that's a sign of how much I want to see this one.

[Clipsfan]

How can you see what you voted on in the poll? I think I know what my top 5 were, but I'm not really positive anymore.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't know if you're serious, but if you are that's quite a prediction. It would have to do about 40% better than the second place movie this summer (probably Ironman) to hit the top 5, and I just don't think that is likely. However, I do expect it to do really well and already have my tickets to the IMAX theater. I tried to get them for Friday, but it was sold out so I'm going on Saturday. As I haven't pre-bought any other tickets this summer other than Ironman that's a sign of how much I want to see this one.

Totally serious. I am excited to see this movie not just because it's a popcorn fest, but because it's supposed to be an incredibely well told story. In the midst of a summer when movies are actually a cheap option, I can see Dark Knight doing amazingly well.
I think the dark horse movie of the summer will be Clone Wars, the animated Star Wars movie. It looks interesting, but still reeks too much of the 3 prequels. But it's Star Wars, and will make some cash just for being a brand.

[feldspar]

I don't know if you're serious, but if you are that's quite a prediction. It would have to do about 40% better than the second place movie this summer (probably Ironman) to hit the top 5, and I just don't think that is likely. However, I do expect it to do really well and already have my tickets to the IMAX theater. I tried to get them for Friday, but it was sold out so I'm going on Saturday. As I haven't pre-bought any other tickets this summer other than Ironman that's a sign of how much I want to see this one.

So Dark Knight would have to break $431 million domestic, $958 worldwide to make that prediction.

I agree that it's quite a prediction, but I also think it's quite possible. If you read the reviews (they're starting to pick up speed on RottenTomatoes), this movie is shaping up to be nothing more than revolutionary.

The "harshest" review I saw, this (http://chud.com/articles/articles/15382/1/REVIEW-THE-DARK-KNIGHT-NICK039S-TAKE/Page1.html)in-depth one from Nick Nunziata, in essence says it's fractions of an inch away from being a masterpiece, and that just a bit of clever editing could have gotten it there. The acting is flawless, the storytelling is nothing short of a work of art and the action scenes are pure eye-candy.

Titanic was nothing close to a masterpiece, and it's #1. I agree with others that all of the factors are there to make Dark Knight a true blockbuster. I don't see this one doing less than $350 million, and if word-of-mouth is anything like the reviews are going, $400 million is reachable.

The real question is, does this movie have the "umph" to be one of those movies you have to go back and see again in the theater? If it does, you could see this break the top 5.

Looking forward to Jason's review in a few days. I can't remember the last time I was this excited to see a movie. I got my tickets a week ago.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Here is an article about how some cities will be showing The Dark Knight until the sun comes up. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/09/movies/09dark.html?_r=2&ref=movies&oref=slogin&oref=slogin)
Apparently, they have sold so many tickets in advance, they need more screenings to show everyone, even at 3 and 6 in the morning.

[pfrduke]

feldspar, welcome back.

[JasonEvans]

Weekend report--

First of all, the notion that Hancock will not be one of the top 5 took a huge hit when Hancock did a very respectable $33 million in its second weekend to get to $165 million overall. It was off 47% in its second weekend, which is not great but not bad either. If we see 50% declines week-over-week for the next 3 weeks or so, which seems reasonable, then we are looking at a movie that will make somewhere around $230 million. It is making the top 5.

The Panda vs. WALL*E battle got a little bit closer, though the better of the two is still leading. Panda went over the $200 million dollar mark with a $4 million weekend. It now sits at $202 million. As I said a week ago, Panda figures to get to about $210 million. WALL*E currently sits at $162 million after a weekend in which it did more than $18 million, just a 43% drop from last weekend. If you compare where Panda was after 17 days of release and where WALL*E is right now, WALL*E is ahead by $7 million ($162 vs. $155). It is worth noting though that WALL*E was leading by $11 million just a few days ago so that is a sign that Panda held up better than WALL*E in its third weekend. Obviously, Panda will need to continue to have better "legs" than WALL*E if it is to finish ahead of the Pixar flick. As we have been saying for a while, it looks like these two will be in a tight race for last place among the top 5.

So, asusming Batman is as big as everyone says the summer will be--

1,2,3 - Iron Man, Indy 4, Batman (pick your order)
4. Hancock
5. Panda or WALL*E (WALL*E currently leads, but it will be close)

There you go, ladies and gents. Did anybody have that combination in any order?

--Jason "no question now that Hancock finishes ahead of the 2 animated flicks, right?" Evans

[bjornolf]

Are we sure that the Mummy has no chance? I had Indy, Batman, Hancock, Narnia, and Mummy. I just didn't realize that Pixar movies made so much, or I would have had it over Narnia and Mummy. Oops, my bad.

Speaking of the mummy, does anybody know why rachel weisz isn't going to be in it? My wife and I were both really bummed when we saw that. Does anyone know how they plan to address that in the new one?

[cato]

So, asusming Batman is as big as everyone says the summer will be--

1,2,3 - Iron Man, Indy 4, Batman (pick your order)
4. Hancock
5. Panda or WALL*E (WALL*E currently leads, but it will be close)

There you go, ladies and gents. Did anybody have that combination in any order?

--Jason "no question now that Hancock finishes ahead of the 2 animated flicks, right?" Evans

Assuming that's how it shakes out, I got 4 of 5. I picked Narnia, not having seen the first movie at the time. After catching part of the first movie before the release of the second, and realizing how dreadful it was, I regretted to choice. I didn't see either Panda or WALL*E coming, though, so I'm not sure that it mattered.

[JasonEvans]

Are we sure that the Mummy has no chance? I had Indy, Batman, Hancock, Narnia, and Mummy. I just didn't realize that Pixar movies made so much, or I would have had it over Narnia and Mummy. Oops, my bad.

Speaking of the mummy, does anybody know why rachel weisz isn't going to be in it? My wife and I were both really bummed when we saw that. Does anyone know how they plan to address that in the new one?

Weisz, who has won a freaking Oscar since she last made a Mummy flick, supposedly dropped out of Mummy 3 because the script was sooo bad she simply could not do it. Brendan Frasier, who never saw a paycheck he did not like, signed on to the film despite talk around Hollywood of it being a disaster.

Obviously, there is no way to know how Mummy 3 will do, but there is not great excitement or buzz surrounding the film. It would be quite surprising to see it make more than $150 million... at the most.

--Jason "as an aside, Maria Bello will be playing the role of Evie that had been played by Weisz in past films" Evans

[bjornolf]

Weisz, who has won a freaking Oscar since she last made a Mummy flick, supposedly dropped out of Mummy 3 because the script was sooo bad she simply could not do it. Brendan Frasier, who never saw a paycheck he did not like, signed on to the film despite talk around Hollywood of it being a disaster.

Obviously, there is no way to know how Mummy 3 will do, but there is not great excitement or buzz surrounding the film. It would be quite surprising to see it make more than $150 million... at the most.

--Jason "as an aside, Maria Bello will be playing the role of Evie that had been played by Weisz in past films" Evans


Okay, but she's also been in constantine, eragon, fred claus, and definitely maybe since she was last in a mummy movie, and is going to be in sin city 2. While there is nothing wrong with any of those movies, I hardly say they are so far above the mummy in the great movie pantheon that one should turn one's nose up at one over the others. Beside, the mummy series is the franchise that made her a household name, imho. It just seems to me that if I were a famous actor, I would stay true to the series that made me that way, even if it does go downhill a little. I'd at least give it one more shot before I walked away from it. see Harrison Ford.

I'll save my opinion of the script until I see the movie. Maybe it really is that awful. I don't know. But as a Rachel Weisz and Mummy fan, I'm bummed by it. Maybe I should be mad at the creators of the third movie for writing a horrible script instead of thinking she's stuck up. We'll see.

Thanks for the info, though. There were so many rumors flying around the web... everything from having a baby and wanting to spend more time with the family to what you said to wanting more money, etc.

[CameronBornAndBred]

We are going tomorrow or Sunday, and I'm sticking by my top 5 ever prediction. The movies it has to join are...
1. Titanic $600.788188
2. Star Wars IV - A New Hope $460.998007
3. Shrek 2 $437.212000
4. E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial $434.974579

and the one it has to beat...
5.Star Wars I - The Phantom Menace $431.088301

Note that Spidey 3 had the biggest opening, and that movie sucked. Expectation will give you the big opening, a really good movie keeps the money coming. (See Star Wars IV). (I don't know how Episode 1 stayed up there, that one sucked too.)
I expect Dark Knight will hold the top spot for a couple weeks, and the top 10 for a few more.

Here are the top 1000 all time (http://www.movieweb.com/movies/boxoffice/alltime.php), if you have time...

[snowdenscold]

We are going tomorrow or Sunday, and I'm sticking by my top 5 ever prediction. The movies it has to join are...
1. Titanic $600.788188
2. Star Wars IV - A New Hope $460.998007
3. Shrek 2 $437.212000
4. E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial $434.974579

and the one it has to beat...
5.Star Wars I - The Phantom Menace $431.088301

Note that Spidey 3 had the biggest opening, and that movie sucked. Expectation will give you the big opening, a really good movie keeps the money coming. (See Star Wars IV). (I don't know how Episode 1 stayed up there, that one sucked too.)
I expect Dark Knight will hold the top spot for a couple weeks, and the top 10 for a few more.

Here are the top 1000 all time (http://www.movieweb.com/movies/boxoffice/alltime.php), if you have time...

It's interesting to me because it seems to crack the top 10 list you have to be a movie that people will see multiple times. Obviously Batman is getting great reviews and word of mouth, but how many people will see it again? I just got back from it and while I loved it - it was dark and it would be hard for me to stomach another go at it while still in theaters.

That's what makes it different to me than say a E.T., Jurassic Park, Home Alone, Lord of the Rings (though those are so long that was probably an issue), Star Wars, etc.

[hc5duke]

So, asusming Batman is as big as everyone says the summer will be--

1,2,3 - Iron Man, Indy 4, Batman (pick your order)
4. Hancock
5. Panda or WALL*E (WALL*E currently leads, but it will be close)

There you go, ladies and gents. Did anybody have that combination in any order?

Nobody got all 5 (assuming that stands). I went by people who voted for Hancock since there are only 10 of us:
bjornolf: 3 (missed Iron Man and WALL-E)
brevity: 4 (missed WALL-E)
cato: 4 (missed WALL-E)
Cicero: 4 (missed Batman)
DevilBen02: 4 (missed WALL-E)
hc5duke (me!): 4 (missed Iron Man)
Ignatius07: 3 (missed Iron Man and WALL-E)
JasonEvans: 4 (missed Batman)
Lord Ash: 4 (missed WALL-E)
soccerdevil: 4 (missed WALL-E)

Note: plenty of other people got 4, but I'm just going with the least picked top-5. Least picked top 5: Hancock < WALL-E < Iron Man < Batman < Indy
Note 2: I can't seem to change colors in FireFox3, I had to do it manually... anyone else have this problem?

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, the new weekend numbers are in and we're getting some interesting overall readings:

1. Iron Man 314.4 (less than $300,000 last week)
2. Indiana Jones 312.6 ($1 million last week)
3. Kung Fu Panda 206.5 ($1.8 million)
4. Hancock 191.5 ($14 million)
5. WALL-E 182.5 ($9.8 million)
6. Dark Knight 155.3 ($155.3 million)
7. Horton Hears a Who 154.2 (not a summer movie, but it's up there)
8. Sex and the City 149.9 (less than $1 million)
9. Narnia 139.5 (dead)
10. Incredible Hulk 131.8 (less than $1 million)

Observations:
-- It doesn't take a genius to see that Dark Knight has positioned itself to be No. 1 ... unless there's a huge dropoff, the question is not whether it passes Iron Man/Indiana Jones, but how high it climbs in the all-time top 10?

-- Hancock took a big hit from the Dark Knight opening, but it's still well positioned to pass King Fu Panda and stay ahead of WALL-E. It will be passed by Dark Knight, but unless Mummy or Tropic Heat is an unexpected blockbuster, Will Smith will almost certainly finish No. 4 for the summer.

-- The two most interesting races are between Ironman and Indiana Jones (Indiana gains a little every week) for (temporary?) No. 1 and between Kung Fu and WALL-E for the fifth spot ... my money is on WALL-E.

-- Anybody notice that the latest Eddie Murphy vehicle crashed and burned in its second week? After two weeks, Dave's total gross is $9.4 million. Man, has ever a box office star lost his mojo so quickly and so completely? The guy who proved box office gold with 48 Hours, Trading Places, Coming to America, Beverly Hills Cop and Nutty Professor (I hated it, but it did great) has started to churn out the likes of Dr. Doolittle, Pluto Nash, Daddy Day Care, Haunted Mansion, Norbit and now Dave. If it wasn't for his ongoing voice-over gig as the Donkey on Shrek, Murphy wouldn't be able to get a table at Spagos. He's the Andruw Jones of the Hollywood set.

-- It looks like Mamma Mia ain't going to threaten Sex and the City for the summer's hottest chick flick -- just $27.3 million opening, despite heavy promotion. I guess "Take On Me", an uplifting musical based on the music of another Scandanavian pop sensation (Ah-ha) will now be shelved.

-- As for Rachel Weisz and her absence from Mummy, EW quotes the film's producer as saying she turned it down when she learned her character would be the mother of a 21-year-old son. Weisz's agent responded that she never read the script and turned it down because it would have meant a month of location shooting in China. Who knows?

-- Speaking of Entertainment Weekly, has anybody mentioned their pre-summer box office predictions:

1. Indiana Jones -- $355.9 million ($45 million too high ... maybe $35 million when it's done ... not too bad a projection)
2. Narnia -- $310.8 million (it's not going to reach half that ... a big miss)
3. Hancock -- $280.4 million (maybe a little high ... I'd guess it tops out at $250-60 million so not too bad)
4. WALL-E -- $280.3 million (again a bit too high... looks more like $220 or $230 million, but not a terrible pick)
5. Iron Man -- $262.7 million (too low by $50 million, but again, not a terrible pick).
6. The Dark Knight -- $255.0 (looks like a big miss -- they based this on the $205 million take for Batman Begins)
7. Kung Fu Panda -- $224.6 million (it's going to be close to this)
8. The Mummy -- $176.5 million (we'll see)
9. The Incredible Hulk -- $147.2 million (it's going to come in at $135 million or so ... not too bad).
10. Tropic Thunder -- $146.6 million (again, we'll see).

It looks like they got four of the top five -- I'll bet they wish they could flip-flop Narnia and Dark Knight. Other than that -- and underestimating Sex and the City's appeal (which beat Narnia and Hulk ... and probably The Mummy and Tropic Thunder) -- a pretty good guess.

[bjornolf]

Nobody got all 5 (assuming that stands). I went by people who voted for Hancock since there are only 10 of us:
bjornolf: 3 (missed Iron Man and WALL-E)
brevity: 4 (missed WALL-E)
cato: 4 (missed WALL-E)
Cicero: 4 (missed Batman)
DevilBen02: 4 (missed WALL-E)
hc5duke (me!): 4 (missed Iron Man)
Ignatius07: 3 (missed Iron Man and WALL-E)
JasonEvans: 4 (missed Batman)
Lord Ash: 4 (missed WALL-E)
soccerdevil: 4 (missed WALL-E)

Note: plenty of other people got 4, but I'm just going with the least picked top-5. Least picked top 5: Hancock < WALL-E < Iron Man < Batman < Indy
Note 2: I can't seem to change colors in FireFox3, I had to do it manually... anyone else have this problem?

You're assuming my Mummy vote doesn't pass Wall-E!!! ;)

[CameronBornAndBred]

How's this for a quote?

""The Dark Knight" could pass "Titanic" as the highest-grossing film in U.S. history, said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Media By Numbers. James Cameron's 1997 extravaganza made $600,788,188 domestically, a record no other movie has come close to touching.

"The `Titanic' record has sat in a lock box for 10 years. It's a tall order but if any film has a chance to surpass that number, it's got to be `Dark Knight,'" Dergarabedian said."
From this article about the records Dark Knight is shattering. (http://movies.msn.com/movies/article.aspx/?news=324682&GT1=28101)

I'll be amazed if it actually tops Titanic, but my top 5 ever prediction is looking good.

[JasonEvans]

Looks like WALL*E and Panda are going to end up incredibly close to each other. After this past weekend, WALL*E only stands 2 million ahead of Panda when comparing where Panda was after the same number of days in release. WALL*E had been nursing an 8 million dollar lead just a couple weeks ago. Panda seems to gain a tiny bit every day.

It is impossible to say how things will end up. Panda is pretty much done and will finish at $210 or $211 million. A lot depends on whether there is a late summer push by Disney to get people back to seeing WALL*E (something they have done in the past on animated hits, "see it again" sorta advertising). I won't be at all surprised if these two end up only a few hundred thousand apart.

--Jason "been on vacation... will be back soon" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

I understand that we have been talking about U.S. box office all this time, but today, when looking for the updated box office figures, I stumbled across the international box office numbers. It's kind on interesting (US box office in paranthesis)

1. Indiana Jones 743.7 million (313.6 M US)
2. Iron Man 555.6 M (314.9)
3. Hancock 386.2 M (206.4)
4. Sex and City 372.5 M (150.9)
5. Kung Fu Panda 363.1 M (209.0)
6. Dark Knight 355.5 M (314.2)
7. Narnia 301.3 M (139.7)
8. Horton/Who 295.2 M (154.4)
9. 10,000 BC 269.1 M (94.8)
10. Hulk 227.7 M (132.5)

Interesting that Sex and the City and Narnia have done so well overseas. Interesting that while Indiana Jones and Iron Man are in a dead heat in the USA, Professor Jones is kicking butt world-wide. Interesting that Wall-E has earned less than $1 million overseas -- what is Disney thinking? And while Dark Knight is blowing up here, it's not doing much overseas yet. Why?

The US Box office race is unbelievably close at the top (as of Monday morning):

1. Iron Man 314.9 M
2. Dark Knight 314.2 M
3. Indiana Jones 313.6 M

Of course, that's temporary -- Dark Knight is still going full speed while the other two are essentially finished. Indiana is still trickling in a few more dollars and may (or may not) pass Iron Man for what is certain to be the final No. 2 spot.

Below them, we have (with last week's take)

4. Kung Fu Panda 209.0 (1.0 M)
5. Hancock 206.4 (8.2 M)
6. Wall-E 195.2 (6.3 M)

I think it's pretty obvious that Hancock will get past Kung Fu, but doesn't have a prayer of cracking the top three. The only thing that could ace Will Smith out of the No. 4 spot for the summer would be in something like The Mummy or Tropic Thunder or Pinapple Express blows up (which I do not expect).

I agree with Jason about Panda/Wall-E ... it's going to be darned close for the fifth spot. Both are going to end up right around 210-215 million. I'm still guessing that Wall-E finishes No. 5.

PS X-Files bombed big time -- barely $10 million for the first weekend. Not a bomb, but not a great opening for the Will Ferrell comedy Stepbrothers -- $30 million.

[Clipsfan]

We are going tomorrow or Sunday, and I'm sticking by my top 5 ever prediction.

I would have to say that it seems VERY likely at this point.

[Clipsfan]

Interesting that Wall-E has earned less than $1 million overseas -- what is Disney thinking?

Disney has delayed the international release of Wall-E until at least August in most territories. I believe that they stated that they don't want to go head to head with the summer blockbusters internationally.

[CameronBornAndBred]

And while Dark Knight is blowing up here, it's not doing much overseas yet. Why?


It opened in the US first, and then it will open around the globe. This past weekend was the UK opening. It will keep opening each weekend around the globe through the 21st of August, which is when it opens in Germany.
You can see the full list here. (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0468569/releaseinfo)

[Deslok]

Disney has delayed the international release of Wall-E until at least August in most territories. I believe that they stated that they don't want to go head to head with the summer blockbusters internationally.

Actually, I'd suspect more that its a simpler function that while many other movies get released as is(i.e. in English) around the world, most animated movies get dubbed to the local language before their release. And that would account the delayed release in many markets. Hopping around Europe the summer(been in Madrid, Lisbon, Barcelona, Florence, Rome, Naples, and now Santorini), I've noted at a couple of movie theatres that I could see various movies in English, and Kung Fu Panda in the local tongue(and similarly, it was only recently released there). I've also had issues seeing animated films when home in Korea(often end up just buying the DVD for $2 in the electonics market, since it the only way to watch it in English).

[JasonEvans]

5th place update...

The summer-long battle between Kung Fu Panda and WALL*E for 5th place may finally be decided. Astute boxcoffice watchers will tell you the best way to judge flicks that do not open the same day is to look at their boxoffice totals through identical days of release. So, when measuring Panda and WALL*E, we look at how each of them were doing after 2 or 3 or 5 weekends to see which is ahead. Does that make sense?

WALL*E started out stronger than Panda and was about 10 million ahead of Panda after 2 weeks of release. But, Panda is a film that held up surprisingly well over the long haul it has been catching up. As of Friday, Panda had trimmed WALL*E's lead to just a little more than $1 million. It looked like we were in for a razor-thin race.

But, that may have changed. WALL*E finally stopped giving ground to Panda in its 7th weekend (it made almost 4.8 million compared to Panda making $4.4 million) and WALL*E now leads by more than $2 million. Through 38 days of release, WALL*E is at $204.2 million while Panda is at $202.1 million.

Panda came out a month before WALL*E, so the above numbers do not represent where Panda actually is right now. IT currently stands at $210.5 million. But, don't expect that number to move very much. Panda's run is all but over at this point as it is leaving theaters and figures to make no more than maybe $1 million more before it is closed and moves to DVD.

So, WALL*E probably needs only about $7 million more to pass Panda. I am betting WALL*E gets there in less than 2 weeks. WALL*E made $10 million last week and seems to be declining at about a 33% rate each week at this point.

--Jason "once WALL*E passes Panda, we will have our top 5" Evans

[JasonEvans]

A quick update on Dark Knight...

$600,788,188

That is the only meaningful number left for Dark Knight. It is Titanic's domestic boxoffice haul and is the only meaningful record left to break.

Some time today or tomorrow, Dark Knight will steam past the $400 million mark in domestic boxoffice. It will shatter the record for the fastest film to reach $400 million. The previous record-holder was Shrek 2 at 43 days. Dark Knight will get there on day 18 or 19, depending on if it can do about $6 million of business today (it did $8 million last Monday).

So, what no other film could do in less than 40 days, Dark Knight will do is about 18. That's sick.

After steaming through $400 million, it will be passing mega-hits every few days for the next week or two. Spiderman is up next at $403 million and will likely fall behind Dark Knight tomorrow. That will make Dark Knight the top comic book adaptation of all-time. After that comes Pirates: Dead Man's Chest at $423 million, The Phantom Menace at $431 mill, and ET at $435 mill. They will be passed by the end of next weekend in all likelyhood.

Shrek 2 ($441 million) and Star Wars (460 mill) will fall by the time we get to mid-late August. After that, Titanic is all that is left.

I am not so sure Dark Knight will get there. It is a tall hill to climb. Folks may forget this, but Titanic was #1 at the Boxoffice for months. It debuted in mid-December and was still the #1 film thru the end of March. That is sick!! Dark Knight almost fell to #2 this week, less than a month after its debut. Sure, Dark Knight is doing better, a lot better, in the early going than Titanic did but Titanic's strong "legs" (it was still doing $20+ million weekends 3 months after it hit theaters) makes that $600 million figure a tough mountain to climb.

Hmmm, perhaps we need a poll to see if folks think Dark Knight will get there...

--Jason

[JasonEvans]

Some time today or tomorrow, Dark Knight will steam past the $400 million mark in domestic boxoffice. It will shatter the record for the fastest film to reach $400 million. The previous record-holder was Shrek 2 at 43 days. Dark Knight will get there on day 18 or 19, depending on if it can do about $6 million of business today (it did $8 million last Monday).

So, what no other film could do in less than 40 days, Dark Knight will do is about 18. That's sick.


400 million in 18 days. (http://www.variety.com/VR1117990081.html) That record is one that will be verrry hard to break.

--Jason "Variety is saying Dark Knight will do $500 million, but the paper does not seem to think $600 million will happen" Evans

[A-Tex Devil]

400 million in 18 days. (http://www.variety.com/VR1117990081.html) That record is one that will be verrry hard to break.

--Jason "Variety is saying Dark Knight will do $500 million, but the paper does not seem to think $600 million will happen" Evans

Dark Knight will need to get some serious best picture Oscar buzz to beat Titanic, I think. While I'm not sure it deserves a best picture nomination (actor/director/cinematography for sure, though), I'm not going to venture on whether it will be nominated because I never thought Forrest Gump, Gladiator or Braveheart were going to be up for Oscars at the time I watched them either. (In retrospect, they were certainly worthy).

I'd love to see a graph of Titanic's weekly earnings. I bet it got a huge bump by the nomination and then the win. When it came out, I avoided it because it looked like a 3 hour chick flick that had a ton of pre-release negative buzz. All the positive word of mouth got me to go see it, and while my opinion of it as a 3 hour chick flick didn't change, they got my $$, didn't they? The gap between release and oscars will hurt TDK in this regard.

[Clipsfan]

I'd love to see a graph of Titanic's weekly earnings. I bet it got a huge bump by the nomination and then the win. When it came out, I avoided it because it looked like a 3 hour chick flick that had a ton of pre-release negative buzz. All the positive word of mouth got me to go see it, and while my opinion of it as a 3 hour chick flick didn't change, they got my $$, didn't they? The gap between release and oscars will hurt TDK in this regard.

This isn't the best graph of its weekly earnings, but it's fun in general and gives a sense of Titanic's ebb and flow:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/02/23/movies/20080223_REVENUE_GRAPHIC.html

[JasonEvans]

http://img112.imageshack.us/img112/2180/graphtg6.jpg

Here is a chart I made just now of Dark Knight, Spiderman, and Titanic over their first ten weeks of release. I hope you can read it.

Notice that Dark Knight is following fairly closely the path that Spiderman took, though a tad ahead of Spiderman. Meanwhile, Titanic's chart is almost a straight line. We've never seen a movie with legs like Titanic. No other major release holds steady like that or even goes up in boxoffice after months in release. It is unreal.

--Jason "this does not take into account the extremely strong showing of Dark Knight during weekdays so far, but I still say it will come up short of Titanic... probably by about $50 million" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

--Jason "this does not take into account the extremely strong showing of Dark Knight during weekdays so far, but I still say it will come up short of Titanic... probably by about $50 million" Evans

Awesome chart, and I agree with you, Titanic will stay on top. It's still unbelievable to think any movie stayed #1 as long as that one did. I think DK will fall to 2cnd behind Pineapple Express this weekend (not a good tomatometer, though). It's opening Wednesday, and they've been advertising the hell outta it.
One of the most remarkable things as well about Titanic, is it wasn't a summer movie. Hell, it lasted through Christmas and tax season. It was the perfect movie, cheesy as it is. Huge budget, big name actors, broad cast, love story for the ladies, enough special effects for the guys, and an intriguing way to tell a tale that everyone knew the outcome before they went. Hard to give a spoiler there. "The ship sank?! Don't tell me the ending!"

Anyways, for the Dark Knight to set the records it has set, and to go down in history as a top notch movie (spidey 3 sure can't claim that, first 2 can) in the middle of the summer is pretty respectable.

By the way, there was room for two on that raft of yours there, Rose.

[JasonEvans]

The competition is over.

WALL*E pulled even with Kung Fu Panda over the weekend and WALL*E is showing remarkable legs at this point. Panda is done and will make less than a million more before it goes to DVD. With WALL*E still reasonably strong ($3 million+ this past weekend), there is no question that it will finish ahead of Panda, probably by at least $5 million.

This makes the top 5 for the summer final. They are--

1. Dark Knight
2. Iron Man
3. Indy 4
4. Hancock
5. WALL*E

I am embarrassed to admit that I got 4 out of 5 because I did not pick Dark Knight to be in the top 5. Stupid!!! I had Narnia in the top 5 instead.

How many other folks got 4 out of 5 now that we know what the top 5 are?

--Jason "we should do this again ahead for the TGiving/Xmas movies" Evans

[pfrduke]

The competition is over.

WALL*E pulled even with Kung Fu Panda over the weekend and WALL*E is showing remarkable legs at this point. Panda is done and will make less than a million more before it goes to DVD. With WALL*E still reasonably strong ($3 million+ this past weekend), there is no question that it will finish ahead of Panda, probably by at least $5 million.

This makes the top 5 for the summer final. They are--

1. Dark Knight
2. Iron Man
3. Indy 4
4. Hancock
5. WALL*E

I am embarrassed to admit that I got 4 out of 5 because I did not pick Dark Knight to be in the top 5. Stupid!!! I had Narnia in the top 5 instead.

How many other folks got 4 out of 5 now that we know what the top 5 are?

--Jason "we should do this again ahead for the TGiving/Xmas movies" Evans

I had Narnia instead of Hancock...

[Deslok]

Narnia instead of Hancock as well

[bjornolf]

I haven't given up on my pick of the Mummy just yet. Come on Brendan, don't fail me now! :rolleyes: It's done $210M total, thanks to all Jet Li's foreign fans.

I think we should pick the winner by box office total of their picks. Since I had the 1, 3, and 4 right, including DK, I'd have a shot!

[Tommac]

I had the top three plus Narnia and the Mummy. The Mummy still might have a chance. I saw it this past weekend and thoroughly enjoyed it.

[JasonEvans]

I had the top three plus Narnia and the Mummy. The Mummy still might have a chance. I saw it this past weekend and thoroughly enjoyed it.

I saw a screening of The Mummy a couple weeks ago and it was pretty mediocre. It made just $16 million this past weekend for a 2 week total of $71 million. It has no chance at all of reaching the $215 million or so that WALL*E will make as the #5 movie of the year. Zero chance.

--Jason "did anyone get the top 4-- DK, IM, I4, and Hancock?" Evans

[Highlander]

Narnia instead of Hancock as well

Me 3.

[cato]

How many other folks got 4 out of 5 now that we know what the top 5 are?


Me n*. I had Narnia instead of WALL*E. I blame the fact that I had not seen the first Narnia movie, and had no idea how bad it was, when I made my pick. Also, I had been underwhelmed by Pixar movies before WALL*E.

n=number of posters who got 4 out of 5.

[cato]

--Jason "did anyone get the top 4-- DK, IM, I4, and Hancock?" Evans

Yup.

[brevity]

brevity: 4 (missed WALL-E)
cato: 4 (missed WALL-E)
DevilBen02: 4 (missed WALL-E)
Lord Ash: 4 (missed WALL-E)
soccerdevil: 4 (missed WALL-E)

The co-winners, it would seem. Not that it matters -- there's no prize, after all, just bragging rights -- but I think the tiebreaker should be the person whose 5th film grossed the highest. (Probably not me, as I picked Narnia.)

[bjornolf]

It has no chance at all of reaching the $215 million or so that WALL*E will make as the #5 movie of the year. Zero chance.
--Jason "did anyone get the top 4-- DK, IM, I4, and Hancock?" Evans

YES!!! You just s*****d yourself, Jason! :rolleyes: Say hello to Mummy, the soon-to-be #3 movie of the summer! I'm back in the running w/ 4 out of 5! Woohoo! ;)

[Clipsfan]

YES!!! You just s*****d yourself, Jason! :rolleyes: Say hello to Mummy, the soon-to-be #3 movie of the summer! I'm back in the running w/ 4 out of 5! Woohoo! ;)

What are you talking about? The numbers which we are discussing are domestic, and although the Mummy has been decent internationally, it's not going to come close to $200 million domestically. The other movies in the top 5 are all going to do as well as or better than The Mummy internationally as well (although Wall-E will take a while to get there).

[throatybeard]

I'm still amazed anyone went to see Titanic more than once. What a waste of Winslet and DiCaprio. I remember at the time, there was a story in the Raleigh News & Observer on some woman in Wake County who had seen it 50 times, in the theater. I've got some of the finest films of all time on DVD, I like seeing masterpieces over and over, and I still don't think there's a single one I've seen 50 times.

[bjornolf]

What are you talking about? The numbers which we are discussing are domestic, and although the Mummy has been decent internationally, it's not going to come close to $200 million domestically. The other movies in the top 5 are all going to do as well as or better than The Mummy internationally as well (although Wall-E will take a while to get there).

dude? humor? the :rolleyes:? the ;)? I was calling the old jinx, the big, bad weauxf gods, down on Jason for so emphatically saying "NO chance" like he's the freakin' dahli llama or nostradamus or something. That's all. Just having fun. Chill, man. :p

You people know me well enough to know I was joking, right? Right, Jason?

[cato]

The co-winners, it would seem. Not that it matters -- there's no prize, after all, just bragging rights -- but I think the tiebreaker should be the person whose 5th film grossed the highest. (Probably not me, as I picked Narnia.)

It looks like DevilBen02 picked Panda over WALL*E, so I guess he's the winner.

[Olympic Fan]

Jason, you're dead right about the top five. Interesting to me that WALL-E will catch and pass Kung Fu by the slimmest of margins -- especially interesting since the two appeal to the same audience and are going to finish with almost the same numbers

On the other hand, it looks like Ironman will hold off Indiana Jones for the No. 2 spot -- again my the slimmest of margins (Ironman had a 316.47 to 315.75 after last weekend ... but with Ironman bringing in $400,000 to $200,00 for Indy, it looks safe).

I was also looking for the biggest flops of the summer, Let me make these three suggestions:

(1) Mummy III -- the second-week dropoff is shattering -- down to $16 million? An established franchise with heavy advertising and the box office appeal of Jet-Li? Wow, it's going to fall below Sex and the City.

(Note: We're talking domestic gross ... if we weren't Indiana Jones would still be ahead of Dark Knight. Mummy may save its investment overseas, but domestically, it's a disaster).

(2) Meet Dave -- Eddie Murphy's latest its topping out at $11 million. Agh! (when I started to type this, I absent-mindedly typed Eddie Murray ... maybe they should have tried Murray instead of Murphy in this bomb ... the former Oriole first baseman has more box office clout these days than the once great Murphy!)

(3) Swing Vote -- Kevin Costner needs to get back in a baseball uniform. Funny, I read where some Republican honcho is suing the producers of this movie, claiming it was his idea. With its box office numbers, that's like Phil Gramm taking credit for the mortgage crisis or high gas taxes. If I had thought this bomb up, I wouldn't want anybody to know it. Besides, has anybody ever seen John Barrymore's 1939 classic "The Great Man Votes" which is basically the same idea? Gordan Hillman and John Twist (who wrote the '39 version) are the guys who ought to sue.

Before we wrap things up, I do have one question. I'm not a Star Wars geek (that's not meant to be disparaging -- I AM a Star Trek geek), but what kind of audience will Star Wars-Clone Wars do? I'm curious why there isn't more buzz ... it's heavily advertized and has fairly good reviews (60 percent at rotton tomatoes), plus a huge build in audience of fanatics. So what if it's animated (we have two animated films in the top six this summer). Star Wars fanatics flocked to even the lousy episodes ... why not this one?

Is there at least a chance that this film takes off hits $200 million?

[Tommac]

I saw a screening of The Mummy a couple weeks ago and it was pretty mediocre.

Jason,

I had just seen Hellboy 2 the week before and Mummy 3 was much better in comparison. I did not see Wall-E or Panda, so I can't judge them, but Mummy 3 was probably the fifth best movie I've seen this summer, after Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indy Jones 4, and Narnia Caspian. I think there were significant faults in all these movies, but this is what we had to choose from. I'm still waiting for another movie like LOTR or Harry Potter to really get excited about.

[JasonEvans]

Jason,

I had just seen Hellboy 2 the week before and Mummy 3 was much better in comparison. I did not see Wall-E or Panda, so I can't judge them, but Mummy 3 was probably the fifth best movie I've seen this summer, after Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indy Jones 4, and Narnia Caspian. I think there were significant faults in all these movies, but this is what we had to choose from. I'm still waiting for another movie like LOTR or Harry Potter to really get excited about.

What was 6th? If you only saw 5 movies this summer than being 5th is not much of an accomplishment.

I need to think about it a bit to rank the movies I saw this summer. I am pretty sure I saw about 15-20 flicks.

-Jason "it has been a good summer for quality in the blockbusters, IMO" Evans

[DevilAlumna]

Well, I'm pretty certain I can predict one of the top 5 2009 summer blockbusters:

http://www.king5.com/movies/stories/NW_081508MOV_potter_film_delay_JM.4c0d1611.html


"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," the sixth installment in the blockbuster film franchise about boy wizard Harry, is moving from its planned Nov. 21 release to July 17, 2009, distributor Warner Bros. said Thursday.

[hc5duke]

The co-winners, it would seem. Not that it matters -- there's no prize, after all, just bragging rights -- but I think the tiebreaker should be the person whose 5th film grossed the highest. (Probably not me, as I picked Narnia.)

Ahem, I believe you forgot about JasonEvans (I guess he already mentioned himself), Cicero (Narnia instead of Batman), and me (Narnia instead of Iron Man) :cool: 8 people (out of 66) got 4 out of 5.

-edit-
Ah, you were talking about getting the top 4. Well fine, you 5 just go hang out by yourselves then!

[2535Miles]

I'm still amazed anyone went to see Titanic more than once.
Nuff said.

[snowdenscold]

Nuff said.

I still haven't seen it.

[billybreen]

I've got some of the finest films of all time on DVD, I like seeing masterpieces over and over, and I still don't think there's a single one I've seen 50 times.

I'm getting close with Real Genius.

[Udaman]

I agree that since nobody got the top 5, the "winners" should be those who got the top 4. Also, you should immediately be disqualified if you didn't have Batman in the top 5 at all (yeah, I mean you Jason Evans) :)

I still can't believe I actually put The Mummy in there. Still, I had no idea it would be as horrid as it looks.

A few other points:

1) That completely stinks that Harry Potter is moving to July, I was really looking forward to it this Thanksgiving. Also, knowing people in the Hollywood business, all their talk about "it was ready for release" is bunk. Something was going on either with editing or other items. This movie would have ruled October, November and December (almost no competition) - now it has to contend with the summer madness, plus they defer revenue for 7 months. Not good.

2) I'm going to see Tropic Thunder this week - looks really good.

3) All of you busting on Titanic are on crack (and those who haven't seen it are missing out big time). This is definitely in my top 15 movies of all time, and for pure grand epic moviegoing, there are few that can (or will ever) top it - Star Wars, Raiders, Ben Hur, those are the only that really come to mind. Titanic created the new genre of disaster woven around a love story, something everyone else has tried to copy since (see Pearl Harbor). Also, it captured the human loss associated with the sinking of that ship in a remarkably effective manner. A great, great, great movie.

[CameronBornAndBred]

That completely stinks that Harry Potter is moving to July, I was really looking forward to it this Thanksgiving.

I greatly agree. The late fall Potter movie has been a staple with my folks. I think they saw the numbers DK pulled in. Either that or they decided it needed editing. I don't see the sense behind it. I think the early Christmas season is a good one for movies, takes away the doldrums of the cold. Oh well, at least there will be Star Trek.

[bjornolf]

I greatly agree. The late fall Potter movie has been a staple with my folks. I think they saw the numbers DK pulled in. Either that or they decided it needed editing. I don't see the sense behind it. I think the early Christmas season is a good one for movies, takes away the doldrums of the cold. Oh well, at least there will be Star Trek.

hate to pee on your leg and tell you it's raining, but the last paragraph of the aforementioned article says that they moved Star Trek from December to May a while ago.

[CameronBornAndBred]

hate to pee on your leg and tell you it's raining, but the last paragraph of the aforementioned article says that they moved Star Trek from December to May a while ago.

Winter is getting worse and worse. Sigh. By the way, save your pee for the shower :)

[Tommac]

I went to see Tropic Thunder with my 17 year old son this weekend and I was underwhelmed. My son loved it but I could have done with less cursing. It seemed that most of the punch lines were primarily cursing. But, Tom Cruise was hilarious as the movie producer. My son didn't recognize him until I told him who it was. All in all, it was a fun movie but not one I would buy on DVD.

[JBDuke]

Ahem, I believe you forgot about JasonEvans (I guess he already mentioned himself), Cicero (Narnia instead of Batman), and me (Narnia instead of Iron Man) :cool: 8 people (out of 66) got 4 out of 5.

-edit-
Ah, you were talking about getting the top 4. Well fine, you 5 just go hang out by yourselves then!

I also had 4 of 5, with Speed Racer instead of Hancock. The previews looked so amazing...

[bjornolf]

Winter is getting worse and worse. Sigh. By the way, save your pee for the shower :)

I KNEW my Judge Judy reference joke would be too low-brow for this site. I have to learn to better read my audience. :rolleyes: And I do NOT pee in the shower. My wife would bobbit me if she caught me doing that!