JasonEvans
02-28-2007, 05:02 PM
A week ago, you could have booked Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State, UNC, and Florida for the #1s and the top #2. Now... not so much.
Wisconsin has lost 2 in a row and just lost their best big man, Brian Butch, for 4-6 weeeks with an elbow injury. If they play poorly without Butch against a desperate Michigan State team this week or in the Big Ten tourney, their #2 seed could even be in some (small) jeopardy.
Florida's recent struggles are well documented. They've lost 3 of 4 and have Kentucky this weekend-- far from a guaranteed win. If they gaack that game and then play uninspired in the SEC tourney, they too could end up with a #3 seed.
Carolina has lost 2 of 4 and has 2 very tough games left before the murderous ACC tourney. It is not at all hard to see them losing 1, 2, or even 3 more games before the season is over.
UCLA has won 4 in a row, including at Arizona by 15 and over a decent STanford team by 14. They still have 2 tough games at Wash and at Wash State but they should be fine for a #1 seed.
Ohio State is pretty much assured of one after beating Wisconsin last weekend. They are on a roll and even if they lost at Michigan this week, I think they would be just fine for a #1 seed.
So, who else? If we think Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin are on the outs, who takes their place?
The most obvious choice is the rapidly improving Kansas. They had already played their way into consideration by winning 10 of their past 11... though it is worth noting that the only time they have played a ranked team in those 11 games (vs. Texas A&M), they lost. The Big 12 is down this year and with the unbalanced schedule they play in that league, Kansas only plays the good teams in the conference once each. Kansas' sked is ranked #76 in the land according to Sagarin, which is nothing special.
What about another big 12 team, Texas A&M? It almost seems unfathomable that they could be a #1, but if they win at Texas this week and then win the Big 12 tourney over Kansas, they'd almost have to be one, right? On the other hand, their schedule is sorta pathetic, #93 according to Sagarin, and they have played only 4 games against teams in Sagarin's top 50 (by comparison, UNC has played 15 games against top 50 teams and Duke has played 16-- more than any other team in the nation).
I guess, almost by default, Memphis has to be part of this conversation, though if you want to talk about weak schedules, they take the cake. It is not really their fault, playing in a lousy conference, but still, their sked is just pathetic.
There is a piece of me that thinks Georgetown deserves real consideration for a #1 seed, but they blew it with that game at Syracuse this week. Win that and then win the Big East tourney and I think they would have had a very compelling case. But, they lost to Syracuse and I don't think they are really in the running.
Ok, time to open this up to other folks-- feel free to chime in. Who should get the #1 seeds?
-Jason "here's an insane thought-- if we run the table, could we get a #1?" Evans
Wisconsin has lost 2 in a row and just lost their best big man, Brian Butch, for 4-6 weeeks with an elbow injury. If they play poorly without Butch against a desperate Michigan State team this week or in the Big Ten tourney, their #2 seed could even be in some (small) jeopardy.
Florida's recent struggles are well documented. They've lost 3 of 4 and have Kentucky this weekend-- far from a guaranteed win. If they gaack that game and then play uninspired in the SEC tourney, they too could end up with a #3 seed.
Carolina has lost 2 of 4 and has 2 very tough games left before the murderous ACC tourney. It is not at all hard to see them losing 1, 2, or even 3 more games before the season is over.
UCLA has won 4 in a row, including at Arizona by 15 and over a decent STanford team by 14. They still have 2 tough games at Wash and at Wash State but they should be fine for a #1 seed.
Ohio State is pretty much assured of one after beating Wisconsin last weekend. They are on a roll and even if they lost at Michigan this week, I think they would be just fine for a #1 seed.
So, who else? If we think Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin are on the outs, who takes their place?
The most obvious choice is the rapidly improving Kansas. They had already played their way into consideration by winning 10 of their past 11... though it is worth noting that the only time they have played a ranked team in those 11 games (vs. Texas A&M), they lost. The Big 12 is down this year and with the unbalanced schedule they play in that league, Kansas only plays the good teams in the conference once each. Kansas' sked is ranked #76 in the land according to Sagarin, which is nothing special.
What about another big 12 team, Texas A&M? It almost seems unfathomable that they could be a #1, but if they win at Texas this week and then win the Big 12 tourney over Kansas, they'd almost have to be one, right? On the other hand, their schedule is sorta pathetic, #93 according to Sagarin, and they have played only 4 games against teams in Sagarin's top 50 (by comparison, UNC has played 15 games against top 50 teams and Duke has played 16-- more than any other team in the nation).
I guess, almost by default, Memphis has to be part of this conversation, though if you want to talk about weak schedules, they take the cake. It is not really their fault, playing in a lousy conference, but still, their sked is just pathetic.
There is a piece of me that thinks Georgetown deserves real consideration for a #1 seed, but they blew it with that game at Syracuse this week. Win that and then win the Big East tourney and I think they would have had a very compelling case. But, they lost to Syracuse and I don't think they are really in the running.
Ok, time to open this up to other folks-- feel free to chime in. Who should get the #1 seeds?
-Jason "here's an insane thought-- if we run the table, could we get a #1?" Evans